Thursday Night Kickoff: Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs NFL Best Bets
NFL Week 1 is finally here and kicks off with Thursday Night Football. We start the season off with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs at home against the up-and-coming Detroit Lions. The Chiefs will look to begin the defense of their championship while the Lions will look to start their quest for their first Super Bowl championship in team history. This matchup sets up to be a good one with two high-powered offenses going head to head.
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Thursday Night Football Best Bets
As great as the Chiefs are, they have a lot working against them in this one. Their star tight end Travis Kelce hyper-extended his knee this week and is in grave danger of missing this game or at the very least being limited, and their best defensive player Chris Jones is not expected to play due to a holdout over a contractual dispute with the team. The Chiefs' weapons in the passing attack should Kelce be sidelined are questionable at best. The Chiefs will be running out the oft-injured Kadarius Toney and the unproven trio of Skyy Moore, Justyn Ross and Rashee Rice at wide receiver. The only proven commodity at wideout is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and the only thing he's really proven is that he's not very good. Kelce's replacement at tight end will be Noah Gray, and Jerick McKinnon will serve as the primary pass-catching running back. That's not a roster that strikes fear in the heart of a defense. However, they do have one thing going for them. They have the best player in the world Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, which covers up many holes.
It just feels like no matter how you stack the odds against Mahomes, he's going to be great and find a way to win. I wouldn't be surprised if a guy I haven't even mentioned as a weapon ends up going for 100 yards and catching two touchdown passes. The last time Mahomes played without both Tyreek Hill and Kelce, he dominated and Byron Pringle had a massive game. That's just what Mahomes does. No matter who they put out there, he's going to make it work.
This could also be running back Isiah Pacheco's coming out party for the 2023 season. If the Chiefs decide to lean on the rushing attack more, he could be in for a huge night. McKinnon should have a role on the ground too. We will all just have to cross our fingers and hope Clyde Edwards-Helaire doesn't get a bunch of snaps to ruin everyone's good time.
On the other side of the ball, the Lions just keep getting better and better. On offense, they've added stud rookies running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta, along with former Chicago Bear David Montgomery. The defense improved later in the year in 2022, and the addition of rookie linebacker Jack Campbell should prove to be immediately impactful. I still don't think the defense will be improved enough yet to slow down the Chiefs' offense with or without Kelce though. This is going to be a high-scoring game and both offenses should dominate. No one stops the Chiefs and the absence of Jones is a major blow to an already shaky Chiefs' defense. We should see lots of points and lots of fantasy points on Thursday Night Football.
Picks
- Detroit Lions +4.5 (-110)
- Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-218)
- Over/Under OVER 53 (-110)
Best Thursday Night FootballPlayer Props
Prop #1: Patrick Mahomes, OVER 286.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Mahomes' passing yards number has been driven down since the Kelce injury, as has the over, and most other props. We are taking full advantage of these deflated numbers. There is still a real chance that Kelce plays so get these numbers while they are depressed, and Mahomes can make do with or without him taking on one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. You should hit this prop as quickly as possible though, because if Kelce is announced as active it will immediately jump up.
Prop #2: Isiah Pacheco, OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
As I mentioned earlier, I expect Pacheco to be the clear-cut RB1 and I've been on him all summer. This will be his big breakout game that kicks off his fantastic fantasy season. With Kelce banged up, it only makes sense that he would get more carries as the Chiefs lean on the ground attack slightly more than usual. This is a low bar for him to get over. Vegas likely is still uncertain about the running back rotation and has some concerns about McKinnon stealing touches. I don't share that fear.
Prop #3: Kerby Joseph, OVER 4.5 Tackles + Assists (+100)
This bet should be easy money. Once Joseph took over last season and saw a significant jump in his snaps, he was topping this number with ease over the final 12 games of the year. During that span, he averaged six tackles per game and I only expect him to improve now that he's a full-time starter entering his second season as a pro. Mahomes completing a lot of passes in the middle of the field as he so often does will only boost Joseph's odds. You won't be getting Joseph at this number and with these odds a month from now once Vegas catches up.
