Start Jerome Ford vs. Zack Moss vs. Joshua Kelley vs. James Conner vs. Rachaad White vs. Alexander Mattison vs. Javonte Williams | Fantasy Football Week 3 RB Start Decision
Every week, there seems to be a popular player in FantasySP’s Who Should I Start? tool. This week, that player is Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford.
Ford wasn’t really even on the fantasy radar until this week, but Nick Chubb’s season-ending injury has thrust Ford onto the scene. Now, the fantasy owners that picked Ford up are wondering who they should be starting him over.
For this discussion, we’ll put Ford up against Indianapolis Colts’ Zack Moss, Los Angeles Chargers’ Joshua Kelley, Arizona Cardinals’ James Conner, Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Rachaad White, Minnesota Vikings’ Alexander Mattison and Denver Broncos’ Javonte Williams.
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Why You Should Start Jerome Ford
While Ford got a lot of work in week 2 after Chubb was injured, Ford also received 15 touches in the team’s week 1 game. He’s up to 34 touches through two games, with 31 carries going for 142 yards and three receptions for an additional 25 yards and a score.
The start/sit conversation surrounding Ford got a little bit tougher when the Browns brought in Kareem Hunt, who backed up Chubb the past few seasons. Coach Kevin Stefanski said Ford was still the team’s starting back, even with Hunt now in the building.
On a team that relies on its running backs as much as Cleveland does, the team’s starter instantly pops up on the fantasy radar. His workload on a week-to-week basis might vary as Hunt gets reacclimated, but at or above 20 touches seems like a fair guess if it’s a tight game.
Ford and the Browns will take on the Tennessee Titans this weekend. The Titans’ defense has allowed the least fantasy points to opposing backs through two weeks. Opposing backs are averaging just 59 total yards and have not scored a touchdown.
Why You Should Start Zack Moss
Moss rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown on 18 attempts. He was targeted four times in the passing game, catching all four for 19 yards.
Even with just one game played, Moss is the team’s second-leading scorer in fantasy points among skill players.
The Colts will take on the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. The Ravens’ defense is in the top five in the league against opposing running backs, allowing an average of 90.5 total yards a game, with no touchdowns.
Moss is the 18th-ranked back in our projections this week.
Why You Should Start Joshua Kelley
Kelley is part of this conversation because of the ankle injury that Austin Ekeler is dealing with. Ekeler will not play again when the Chargers take on the Vikings.
Without Ekeler in the picture in week 2, Kelley was the team’s lead back. He played 54 snaps and got 13 touches, but went for just 39 yards. He got half of the team’s four red zone carries.
Kelley will look for a better showing this week against Minnesota. The Vikings’ defense is in the bottom half of the league when it comes to slowing opposing backs, with an average of 158 total yards against them. One touchdown has been scored by an opposing back.
Kelley is the 26th-ranked back in our week 3 projections.
Why You Should Start James Conner
Conner has dominated the touches and snaps in the Cardinals’ backfield through two games. He’s already played 99 snaps, with the next closest being 17.
Conner has rushed for 168 yards and a touchdown on 37 carries. He’s also caught five of the six passes thrown his way, but for only 8 yards.
Conner has one of the toughest matchups of any running back this week as the Cards square off with the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has allowed an average of 56 total yards across two weeks to opposing backs. No touchdowns have been scored against them.
Conner is the 11th-ranked back in the week 3 projections.
Why You Should Start Rachaad White
After a tough opening week, White bounced back with over 100 yards of total offense in week 2. The Buc’s starter played 51 snaps last week, getting 22 touches.
White rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts and caught all five of his targets for 30 yards. He trails just Mike Evans in fantasy points among the team’s skill players.
White and the Buccaneers take on the Philadelphia Eagles in week 3. The Eagles’ defense has been good against opposing backs so far, with an average of 41 rushing yards against through two games. Philly has allowed an average of 49 receiving yards to backs, but still have allowed the fifth-fewest points.
White is the 24th-ranked back for the upcoming week.
Why You Should Start Alexander Mattison
The Vikings running game has struggled to get going through two games, which prompted the team to make a trade. Mattison has just 62 rushing yards on 19 attempts, but does have six catches on 10 targets for 21 yards and a touchdown, across the first two weeks, so the team made a trade with the Los Angeles Rams for Cam Akers.
The team says it hasn’t lost faith in Mattison, but the trade certainly complicates things for Mattison, who was dominating the snaps and touches in the team’s backfield.
Mattison has played 91 snaps and gotten 25 total touches in two weeks. Backup Ty Chandler was at just 18 snaps and seven touches, while fullback C.J. Ham had 35 snaps and two touches.
The Vikings will play host to the Chargers, who rank near the middle of the league in defending opposing backs. The Chargers are allowing an average of 105.5 total yards to opposing backs, and have allowed two rushing touchdowns.
Mattison is the 17th-ranked back coming into week 3. Akers and Chandler barely crack the top 60.
Why You Should Start Javonte Williams
Williams has not been utilized a ton through two weeks, and has actually played less snaps than Samaje Perine. Williams has nearly double the touches as Perine.
Williams has run the ball 25 times to just nine for Perine. Williams has turned those runs into 96 yards. He’s added 19 yards on six catches and nine targets, with Perine up to 57 receiving yards on seven catches and eight targets.
The Broncos’ backs have a favorable matchup on deck as they take on the Miami Dolphins. Miami has given up the fifth-most points to opposing backs, with an average of 164 total yards allowed. Miami has already allowed three rushing touchdowns.
Williams is the 31st-ranked back in our projections. Perine isn’t far behind at 36th.
Final Numbers and the Recommended Start
The conversation is centered on Ford, so let’s focus on him for a second again. Owners that roster Ford and then any of these other backs have Ford starting in some instances, but not in others. Ford is the preferred starter over Kelley and Mattison while being nearly a toss up decision with Williams. Moss, Conner and White are preferred starters over Ford.
If I had to choose my ideal starter out of this group, I would take Williams. I expect the team to get him more involved against a Dolphins’ defense that’s struggled against the run so far. I know Perine might steal some touches, but I’m still comfortable with Williams outproducing his projections and finishing near or above 100 total yards.
A lot of the other backs in this discussion have tougher opposing defenses to go up against, so this is where things get difficult. Even though Kelley struggled last week, I like his chances to bounce back against the Vikings’ defense that was ripped to pieces by the Eagles last week. I’d take him second of this bunch of backs.
I’d take Moss third. He looked good in his first week of action, and should again be the workhorse in week 3. His numbers probably won’t be at the same level as he produced last week, but I like his chances to produce more than Mattison, White, Conner or Ford.
I’d go with White fourth in this conversation. He’s coming off one of the best RB showings in week 2, but I just don’t like the team’s chances to utilize him as much, because I think the Bucs will be playing from behind more often than not.
Even though I’m not a huge fan of Mattison at this point, I’d take him next. I’m not sure how much Akers will factor into things, but I think the Vikings try and get Mattison involved a bit more to help balance out their offense. He’ll get enough looks to score several points, even if his averages aren’t great.
I would choose Ford over Conner between the two backs remaining. Conner is likely going to get a bigger workload, but I expect the Cowboys to highlight Conner, take him away and force quarterback Joshua Dobbs to beat them. I anticipate Ford getting the most touches of any Browns’ running back, but I simply just don’t like the matchup against the Titans to take Ford over some of the others.
In cases where you need to fill a couple RB spots in your lineup, I’d be comfortable starting Williams, Kelley, Moss or White together. I’d avoid starting Mattison, Ford and Conner unless you absolutely have to.
