Thursday Night Football: Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders NFL Best Bets, Brian Robinson, Justin Fields, Terry McLaurin
It's time for Thursday Night Football and we're going to break down everything you need to know to make some money tonight.
Week 5 is here and this is the kind of Thursday Night Football game we've all grown fond of over the years. We have the Chicago Bears (0-4) on the road to take on the Washington Commanders (2-2). Last week, we saw the Detroit Lions go on the road and dismantle the Green Bay Packers in what looked to be a very promising game. Hopefully, the Bears and Commanders will surprise us. It's unlikely this game has any long-term ramifications for the NFL Playoffs like the past few games we've covered, nevertheless, there are still fantasy points to be had and money to be made.
Week 5 Thursday Night Football Best Bets
The Commanders aren't a particularly good team. Mostly because their quarterback Sam Howell has been an atrocity against football this season. However, the Bears are an abomination. They are currently projected to have both the first and second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The good news is that both teams are relatively healthy when it comes to their fantasy options and that is a necessity with the bye weeks starting this week. This game isn't loaded with high-end players, but there are still a lot of players fantasy owners will be starting.
Let's start with the Bears. Things are at least rounding into form for this offense in the sense that we know what we will be getting even if what we are getting isn't very good. Last week, Justin Fields finally looked like the player people thought they were drafting. Khalil Herbert showed that he is still the clear RB1 when the team isn't losing by 1,000 points in the second quarter. The absence of Chase Claypool has un-muddied the pass-catching group leaving DJ Moore as the clear top target with little competition and Cole Kmet has emerged as a viable fantasy tight end option. Unfortunately, that was against the Denver Broncos' defense so any success they had has to be taken with a grain of salt, but at least we got to see what it's supposed to look like when things don't immediately go horrifically wrong. Because of this we still have major concerns about Fields, however, we do feel better about Moore, Kmet, and especially Herbert than we did heading into Week 4.
When it comes to the Commanders, it's looking like a bit of a two-man show for fantasy owners. Those two men are Brian Robinson and Terry McLaurin. Robinson has been getting the vast majority of the running back touches and is the guy in the red zone. He has cooled off a bit after a red-hot start, but still is seeing a ton of volume and is the guy getting the valuable fantasy touches. It's not often you'll be leaving him on your bench. Scary Terry on the other hand got off to a slow start and is now heating up as he gets more and more healthy from his preseason turf toe injury. Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas aren't completely useless, nonetheless, you can probably find better options to start than them. Antonio Gibson is a desperation flex only if you've exhausted every other avenue.
Despite the Commanders being not very good, we still believe they should handle the Bears with relative ease. Especially being home on a Thursday night. Had this game been in Chicago and the Commanders' team bus had been snowed in at the hotel after a freak Autumn blizzard then the Bears may have had a chance to win their first game of the season.
The Picks
Washington Commanders -6 (-108)
Washington Commanders Moneyline (-265)
Over/Under O44.5 (-108)
Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Justin Fields, Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Like last season, Fields has gotten off to a slow start on the ground. However, it was around this time last season that the Bears came to the inevitable conclusion that in order to be competitive at all Fields would have to have success with his legs. He is a week removed from finally taking off and rushing the ball 11 times. Last week, he only carried the ball four times, but two things are different. We don't expect them to have a big lead for the majority of the game this week and we aren't so sure the team is still interested in protecting Fields at all costs. If Fields is going to be successful, he's going to have to run. If he is not successful they will be replacing him in the draft anyway. Logic would tell you that they have to cut him loose and hope for the best. While trusting the Bears to use logic with the QB situation may be dangerous, we have to hope reason wins out here.
Prop #2: Brian Robinson, Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Bears are a bottom-five defense in the league that we expect to be trailing in this game, and the Commanders have a feature back they give almost every carry. With the Commanders likely trying to run the clock down for the majority of the second half and get the lead by not putting the ball in Howell's hands in the first half, we should see a ton of Robinson early and often. The Bears can't stop anyone from doing anything, so there is no reason to believe they will even be able to slow down this Washington rushing attack. He has topped this mark in two of the last three games.
Prop #3: Brian Robinson, Anytime TD Scorer (-115)
We could copy and paste the last blurb, but we will add a few more stats for you on this one. Through four games, Robinson has scored four TDs. These include games against the Eagles and Bills. The Eagles have allowed one TD to running back all season and it's Robinson. The Bills have the No. 2 scoring defense in the league and are allowing less than 14 points per game. The Bears on the other hand through four games have allowed eight TDs to running backs already. There isn't anything more that needs to be said. Just trust the process on this one.
