Colts Running Back Breakdown | Zack Moss vs. Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Outlook
The Indianapolis Colts got a big boost in week 5 with the return of star running back Jonathan Taylor.
The 24 year old back sat out the first four games with what was classified as an ankle injury. He was also looking for a new deal or to be traded to a new team. Taylor was not only activated from the physically unable to perform (PUP) list before week 5, but given a $42 million extension. It's one of the rare times a player sat out trying to get a deal and actually ended up with a multi-year contract.
Indy came out and said that Taylor would be eased back into things, and that became a lot easier to do given what Zack Moss produced in week 5. Now fantasy owners are wondering what the plan might be going forward for both backs. I’m here to dig into things, offer up a few scenarios and help you decide what guys to utilize going forward.
Explore the best in-season tool to manage lineup/start decisions including predictive waiver analytics to help prioritize waiver pickups, projections, auction values, trade suggestions, trade value charts, rest of season rankings, power rankings, and tons more with Fantasy Assistant.
Moss Excels, Taylor Barely Plays in Week 5
The Colts improved to 3-2 on the season after a 23-16 win over the Tennessee Titans in week 5. They picked up the win despite starting quarterback Anthony Richardson leaving with an injury, thanks in large part to the play of Moss.
Moss showed he wasn’t quite ready to give up his starting role by gathering 25 touches and going for 195 total yards. Moss rushed for 165 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries and caught both of his targets for an additional 30 yards.
Moss showed big play ability, with a long run of 56 and a long catch of 26. Moss was also extremely durable, playing 53 offensive snaps, or 80% of the team’s total.
Taylor saw the field for just 10 snaps. He finished with 34 yards on seven touches.
Taylor rushed for 18 yards on six carries, with a long run of just 5 yards. His only catch went for 16 yards.
Colts Running Back Outlook
Indy was always going to play things safe with Taylor, especially given his new contract, but now the organization can be ulta-conservative in ramping Taylor up now.
Moss is simply playing too well to give all his snaps to Taylor right now. Sure, the ulta-talented Taylor might be able to put up similar, or even better numbers, than Moss with those touches, but the Colts have to be loving the fact that they have two backs who can dominate when out on the field.
Indy doesn’t have to worry about a dropoff when Taylor comes off the field, and the two backs can keep each other fresh over the course of a game and season by splitting snaps and the work. Now for fantasy purposes, this isn’t what owners want to see or hear, unless you scooped up Moss earlier this season.
I expect the Colts to continue letting Moss serve as the lead back for the next couple of weeks, meanwhile increasing Taylor’s snaps and touches each game. If Moss starts to struggle in the lesser role and with Taylor breathing down his neck, then the Colts can simply have Taylor take over as the lead guy.
What would happen to Moss then? Indy could trade him to a team desperate for a back and simply turn the backup duties over to another guy. That would probably be the best case scenario for those that own Moss and Taylor.
The worst case scenario for Moss' owners would probably be Taylor taking over as the lead back and the Colts having Moss drop back into a backup role. When Taylor is a full go, there won’t be much work left for Moss, so he’ll likely be droppable.
If Moss continues to play well, even as his snaps and touches dwindle, the Colts might actually stick with a 50/50 split between the two backs. That would be the worst case scenario for all owners of Taylor and Moss. They could each still put up respectable numbers, but their ceiling will be limited.
Who to Start in Week 6 and Beyond
The Colts look to take over the top spot in the AFC South this coming week when battling the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams are 3-2 this season.
Jacksonville has been below average in slowing opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. Indy will be starting Gardner Minshew instead of Richardson, but Minshew has looked pretty strong in relief duty and a start so far, so I don’t think the Colts would necessarily try to lean on the run.
As mentioned before, I believe Moss will again serve as the lead back, but I expect Taylor’s workload to also increase. If I had to guess, I’d guess Taylor sees somewhere between 20-25 snaps and somewhere around 13-15 touches.
That means Moss will lose some snaps and touches, unless the Colts play both guys at the same time. Instead of getting 25 touches, I’d expect Moss to be around 18-20 touches.
With those numbers in mind, seeing how the Indy backs have performed so far and then factoring in going up against a solid Jacksonville defense, I’m not sure either guy should actually be started. In order to put up a strong fantasy point total, the backs will likely need a big play or two or a score. Just looking at the Jaguars’ defense against opposing backs, that doesn’t seem like a strong possibility.
If you scooped up Moss after originally drafting Taylor and needed to start one of the two, I’d lean toward Moss given he should get more snaps and touches.
Taking a stab at the long-term picture - even though we’ll likely be revisiting the Moss and Taylor debate in the weeks to come - Taylor is the better fantasy asset, as you should be able to guess.
The Colts take on the Cleveland Browns in week 7 and then the New Orleans Saints in week 8 and Carolina Panthers in week 9. The Browns and Saints both have elite defenses against the run, so it will be a couple weeks before I’m really comfortable starting an Indy back, unless the snaps and touches don’t work out the way I expect. Week 9 is against a Panthers’ defense that’s struggled mightily against the run, and by that point, I expect Taylor to be the clear No. 1 guy again, at which point he’ll be a safe start.
If Moss struggles while facing the stronger defenses of the Saints and Panthers, then Taylor might be utilized a little bit more than I expect at the moment. All that could do is possibly move my timeline up by a week or two. It would spell bad things for Moss owners - as the team would relegate him to the backup role and his trade value would drop - but be great for Taylor owners.
What to do with Moss and Taylor
If you own one or both guys, here’s how I would proceed given my expectations.
If you’ve already traded for Taylor or patiently waited on him, don’t give up hope now. At some point, he’ll regain a hold of the lead role and become one of the best backs in the league again. That could be right in time for your playoff push.
If you own Moss, I would try and sell him while his value is high. You probably won’t get nearly as much as you’d hope for a guy with his stats, but it’s better than nothing. You could also hold onto him and hope the Colts do deal him to another team. Moss’ stock wouldn’t take much of a hit, and you retain a starting back.
