Fantasy Stars Who Will Struggle in Week 6: Tua Tagovailoa, George Kittle and More

When choosing players for this column, "struggle" often doesn't mean two fantasy points. A top running back finishing with 50 yards or quarterback having an efficient day can still fit within the scope of "struggle": everything is relative. This is talking about fantasy output and what we project.

I'm looking for players who won't meet the expectations set for them, no matter how high or unfair they might be. With that in mind, Week 5 was pretty successful. There's a case to be made for all four choices being wins, but the quarterback and wide receiver are probably more like half-wins. Either way, these players didn't have big weeks, just like I predicted:

• Trevor Lawrence tied for 15th in scoring among quarterbacks, an OK day. He threw for 315 yards, fifth-most, but had only one touchdown while losing two fumbles. He was facing a great Bills defense, and his team won, so real-life Jaguar fans were happier with his performance than fantasy owners.
• Kyren Williams ran for 53 yards against a super tough Philadelphia run D. It was the best performance against Philly this season, but it kept him outside the top 30 in both Standard and PPR.
• Deebo Samuel was OK, much like Lawrence. Three catches for 55 yards is whatever, but five carries for 30 yards helped boost his week. He was 27th in PPR and 25th in Standard.
• Hunter Henry had no catches on two targets, fulfilling my prophecy of his quiet week. The New England defense is to blame more than Henry himself, but he might not be a fantasy option any week in the foreseeable future.

Week 6 starts scary (it is October, after all), but I'm fairly confident after the quarterback pick. Again, this doesn't mean these players will be shut out, just that they won't reach the standards we are expecting.

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers

Tua’s fantasy QB finishes through the first five weeks, in order: first, 26th, second, 18th, 12th. That averages out to the sixth-highest scoring quarterback in 2023. The highs have been super high, as Miami has one of the most explosive offenses in the league.

With the most passing yards and tied for second-most touchdowns in the league, Tua is a weekly fantasy starter. Carolina is 0-5 and will likely finish among the worst records in the league. This is a pretty sizeable mismatch.

There are a few reasons Tagovailoa might not live up to his lofty heights in Week 6, though. First, Carolina has been good against the pass. They are allowing the fifth-least passing yards and 13th-least fantasy points to quarterbacks. Brian Burns is a star pass rusher looking for a new contract, and he leads a front that gets after the quarterback. They are in the top 13 in both sacks and interceptions. 

And the running game; we can’t forget the Dolphins' running game. Miami is averaging 21.8 more rushing yards per game than the second-place Eagles (13.3%). De’Von Achane is injured and will miss at least a month, but Raheem Mostert is more than capable of picking up the slack. Achane has been phenomenal, but Mostert is still 14th in rushing yards among running backs, even while splitting touches. He’s also ninth in running back receiving yards.

The Panthers haven’t stopped anyone on the ground this season: they have allowed the third-most rushing yards and second-most fantasy points to running backs in 2023. This has the makings of a 300-yard day on the ground for Miami (OK, maybe 250).

The Dolphins are likely to run the ball all over Carolina and rely less on the pass. It’s likely this game turns into a blowout and Miami stops throwing as much, and Tua might even see the sidelines early if they have a comfortable lead. A big Miami win might point you to Tua having a big day, but I see the possibility of them focusing on the run as they dominate again, leaving Tagovailoa outside the top 12 quarterbacks in Week 6. (Then again, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle might go off, and Tua will put up 40 fantasy points; anything is on the table with this offense.)

Running Back

Breece Hall, New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles

Hall has had over 145 total yards in two games and less than 30 total yards in two others. There is reason to think he has turned a corner, though, because it was revealed last week that he was off his “pitch count” and able to play a full complement of snaps. He touched the ball 25 times, 19 more than any other New York back, on his way to 194 yards and a touchdown in Week 5.

It’s easy to see Hall as THE guy for the Jets moving forward, especially as Dalvin Cook has been objectively terrible, averaging 2.7 yards per carry and not reaching 30 total yards in a game since Week 1. Things are pointing up for Hall, and he is a player to target if an owner is interested in trading him.

Week 6 is going to be a different story. The Eagles have chewed up and spit out every running back they have faced. Last week, I wrote this about teams facing Philly: “No player has had over 45 rushing yards in any game against Philadelphia, and two top rushers were under 30 yards. No team’s running backs have gone for 75 yards in a game combined.”

Williams upped that first number by hitting 53 rushing yards, but the team combined for just 54. Philadelphia will be doing this all year: they have allowed the least fantasy points and second-least rushing yards per game to running backs.

The Jets were blown out by Dallas in Week 2 and essentially abandoned the running game, handing it off only 10 times to backs. It’s easy to see a scenario in which New York gets down early while the run game is does nothing. They woulld have to throw the ball, which would result in something closer to the four-carry game Hall had against the Cowboys than the 22 carries he had in Week 5.

Hall will have his games, but don’t hope for a repeat of last week. He is a player to sit in Week 6.

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans

Let’s start with Houston: they are allowing the fifth-least receiving yards and third-least fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They have faced Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett, but they also matched up with Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson (for one half), and Trevor Lawrence. This defense is legitimately good.

No receiver has reached 100 yards in a game against the Texans, and they’ve given up just one touchdown to the position. On top of no one having a great outlook against Houston right now, Olave has one more factor working against him.

Quarterback Derek Carr suffered an injury in Week 3 and left the game, but he didn’t miss any time after that. It was a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder; that same injury was just sustained by Richardson, and he is projected to miss one to two months. Every injury is different, and the Colts are surely going to be extra careful with their young QB, but it was surprising when Carr played Week 4.

The results that game were awful: 23-37 passing for only 127 yards, just 3.4 yards per attempt. Olave had one catch for four yards. Week 5 was a different game, as New Orleans blew out the Patriots and the passing game didn’t have to do much. They ran the ball 42 times compared to 26 passes, but Carr only had 183 yards, and Olave caught two passes for 12 yards (one was a touchdown).

There are more possible reasons for his drop in production, but Olave averaged 7.3 catches for 100.7 yards over the first three weeks and has a total of only three catches for 16 yards in the last two games. Carr hasn’t had 200 yards in a game since his injury, and his star receiver has been anonymous.

Olave averaged 14.5 yards per catch in 2022 and was at 13.7 through the first three games. Over Weeks 4 and 5, his few catches have averaged 5.3 yards. It’s reasonable to think Carr can’t get the ball downfield as effectively while compromised by injury, and it takes away what Olave is best at: catching the ball down the field.

The young receiver struggling is reason alone for concern, but a tough Houston defense seals the deal. It’s worth sitting Olave this week, and I see him as a WR3 at best.

Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns

I was back and forth between Kittle and Darren Waller to highlight this week until seeing something:

Target Rank on Team	San Francisco 49ers (Targets)	New York Giants (Targets)
1st	Deebo Samuel (31)	Darren Waller (34)
2nd	Brandon Aiyuk (27)	Darius Slayton (24)
3rd	Christian McCaffrey (24)	Parris Campbell (23)
4th	George Kittle (23)	Wan'Dale Robinson (17)
5th	Jauan Jennings (8)	Isaiah Hodgins (14)
Team Total	132	158

Two things stand out: first, Darren Waller leads his team in targets and has 11 more than Kittle, who is fourth on his own team. Second, Giants' pass catchers have 26 more targets than those in San Fran. The ball is getting thrown more in New York, and that means more chances for Waller. He also doesn't have the talent around him fighting for the ball; Waller is easily the most talented of the five Giants listed, but Kittle is third at best on his team (and probably fourth).

Waller has a tough matchup against the Bills, but he will get opportunities, and New York is likely to have to throw to keep up. The Browns have a great defense, but they aren't on the level of the 49ers as a team, and this game is likely to be either low-scoring or a 49ers blowout. The 49ers are more likely to run and control the ball than air it out all game.

Kittle had a big fantasy day last week, finishing as the top tight end in both standard and PPR. His three touchdowns in that game tie him for most in the league at the position for the entire season; he did it in one week. Kittle also had a good Week 3 with seven catches for 90 yards. His other three games have produced just 10 catches for 58 yards, though, with no fantasy finish in the top 25. There are worse things than a boom-or-bust tight end, but there's reason to think Week 6 will be a bust.

The Browns are league-average in terms of fantasy points allowed to tight ends (14th fewest), but they are allowing the third-least receiving yards to the position. Kittle's two good games were against teams allowing higher than league-average fantasy points to tight ends, and two of his three poor games were against teams better than average against tight ends. Matchup is dictating his production to some degree. Also, his three touchdowns were his only three catches in Week 5 (a nitpick, I admit).

An inconsistent performer going against a good defense in a game that doesn't project for a lot of passing makes me want to sit Kittle this week. Many owners won't have that option, and the San Francisco offense is very good, but don't be surprised by another quiet game.