49ers' Deebo Samuel is Performing Like a Fantasy Football Backup
Deebo Samuel was hurt in the first quarter against Cleveland on Sunday and didn’t return to the game. He is undergoing more testing on his shoulder and is day-to-day and questionable for Week 7. Samuel had no catches and two rushes for 11 yards before leaving the game.
The injury ruined his week, but Samuel has been underwhelming in fantasy for most of the season. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s been bad, but he was drafted as a top-15 fantasy receiver and is ranked near the top 10 on a weekly basis.
Samuel is tied for 21st in standard scoring and 31st in PPR this season; his teammate, Brandon Aiyuk, is 14th and 17th in each format. Aiyuk missed one full game and played another seriously hampered, recording only one catch in Week 2 after suffering an injury on the first drive (he had two catches before the injury).
I liked the idea of drafting Aiyuk rather than Samuel this season, not because I thought Aiyuk was better, but because he was going outside the top 20 receivers. Now I just think Aiyuk is better, period. Last season showed similar results (these are 2022 stats, and all fantasy points and rankings throughout the article are from Fantasy Pros):
| Player | Total Yards (Per Game) | Standard Fantasy Points (Rank) | PPR Fantasy Points (Rank) |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1,038 (61.1) | 149.8 (15th) | 227.8 (15th) |
| Deebo Samuel | 864 (66.5) | 112.4 (34th) | 168.4 (38th) |
Samuel played just 13 games against 17 for Aiyuk, and I included rushing yards to boost Samuel, but the fantasy difference is fairly large. Aiyuk averaged more fantasy points per game in both formats, and I'm not sure why we were so far down on him before the season (probably because we didn't trust Brock Purdy).
Samuel is worth being on your roster, but ESPN has projected him 11th or better every week among wide receivers in standard scoring: he finished 11th the week Aiyuk got hurt and seventh in the game he missed, but Samuel otherwise hasn't finished higher than 25th at his position.
Deebo's Drop in Production
Samuel was a superstar in 2021:
- PPR: eight top-10 weekly finishes, four in the top five
- Standard: 11 top-10 weekly finishes, six in the top five
- Second overall wide receiver in standard scoring behind only Cooper Kupp's ridiculous year
- Third overall in PPR behind Kupp and Davante Adams
He played 16 games that year and balled out all year long. It was a different story in 2022, as Samuel only played 13 games and looked like a different player:
- PPR: two top-10 weekly finishes, one in the top five
- Standard: two top-10 weekly finishes, one in the top five
- Only one other week in the top 20 (a 19th-place finish in both formats)
- Finished 34th in standard scoring and 38th in PPR
It's easy to think that Samuel missed more games so he scored less, but he was far less efficient and inconsistent in fantasy. That has carried over to this season. Aiyuk was injured early in Week 2 and played seriously limited, then he missed Week 3. Samuel was a different player during that period.
Production With and Without Aiyuk
The time Aiyuk was injured/out is the only time Samuel operated or produced like a top option. Not including Week 6 when Samuel was injured, here is the difference in his production with and without Aiyuk at full strength:
With Aiyuk
| Game | Rec - Yards | Rush - Yards | Touchdowns | Standard Pts (Rank) | PPR Pts (Rank) |
| Week 1 @ Steelers | 5 - 55 | 2 - 8 | 0 | 6.3 (38th) | 11.3 (36th) |
| Week 4 vs Cardinals | 0 - 0 | 3 - 6 | 0 | 0.6 (115th) | 0.6 (124th) |
| Week 5 vs Cowboys | 3 - 55 | 5 - 30 | 0 | 8.5 (25th) | 11.5 (27th) |
Without Aiyuk
| Game | Rec - Yards | Rush - Yards | Touchdowns | Standard Pts (Rank) | PPR Pts (Rank) |
| Week 2 @ Rams | 6 - 63 | 5 - 38 | 1 (Rush) | 16.1 (11th) | 22.1 (12th) |
| Week 3 vs Giants | 6 - 129 | 1 - 2 | 1 (Receiving) | 19.1 (7th) | 25.1 (8th) |
That's a pretty stark difference. Week 4 was a dud, but Weeks 1 and 5 were OK-to-mediocre. When Aiyuk was hurt early in Week 2, Samuel picked up the slack with 11 touches, his most on the season, and a rushing touchdown. There was more opportunity in the passing game, and he got a few extra plays in the run game, resulting in a score. Week 3 was his best game of the season, as he was operating as a true number one receiver the whole game.
It's not surprising that his production went up with one less player fighting for touches, but it backs up my opinion: Samuel is NOT a weekly starter when the 49ers are at full strength. They have so many good players that will touch that ball that Samuel (and George Kittle) has been limited. He is good as a WR3/flex player who can be considered some weeks as a WR2.
Falling Efficiency
I expected that Samuel's drop in rushing production would be his main downfall from 2021, but that wasn't the case, as the percentage of his fantasy points from rushing has stayed fairly consistent. Instead, Deebo was MUCH more efficient in his big season than he has been over 2022 and 2023:
| Season | Yards Per Catch | Receptions Per Touchdown | Yards Per Rush | Rushes Per Touchdown |
| 2021 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 7.4 |
| 2022 | 11.3 | 28 | 5.5 | 14 |
| 2023 | 15.1 | 20+ | 5.3 | 18+ |
Touchdown percentage tends to fluctuate with all players, but he was scoring touchdowns half as often in 2022. It's hard to compare 2023 after just 20 receptions and 18 rushes, but he has one touchdown each way, meaning those averages will rise quickly with each touch.
His 5.3 yards per rush is still good, but he's a gadget player rather than real running back most times, so it's better to compare Samuel to himself rather than other backs. His average has dropped each season. His yards per catch fell off by almost seven yards in 2022, nearly a 38% drop. That has come back up a little this year, but Samuel is still less efficient with his touches.
The Verdict
Purdy pushes the ball a little bit, but those passes have been going to Aiyuk while Samuel gets more screens and shorter passes. San Francisco has mostly been good on offense, and they have a not-so-daunting schedule remaining. The team is likely to keep operating as they have when all players are healthy, and that means a complementary role for Samuel.
He's still a valuable player to own, but he's a better real life player than fantasy player in 2023. He should be deployed as a matchup-dependent player, being considered some weeks for your WR2/WR3/flex spots. Many other guys catch more passes (a big boost in PPR) and work more efficiently than Samuel. I view him as similar to Marquise Brown or Terry McLaurin in fantasy: players who will have good weeks but are seriously limited in tougher matchups.
Again, keeping Samuel is fine, but he'd be worth trading if someone will value him as a WR1 or high-level WR2, the way he's been projected. If you can get Sam LaPorta or Josh Jacobs in return, I'd be tempted to take that deal and find another receiver to stream, like rookie Josh Downs who has had a few good games for the Colts. Samuel is still a relevant player, but value him accordingly moving forward.
