Fantasy Stars Who Will Struggle in Week 7: Kirk Cousins, Austin Ekeler, Diontae Johnson and Sam LaPorta
OK, last week was a failure. There are ways I could try to fight that fact, and I almost did, but let’s just accept it: Week 6 was my worst week choosing players to struggle in fantasy.
- I thought Tua Tagovailoa could have a pedestrian day as the Dolphins dominated with the run and didn’t have to pass much. That scenario did play out, but Tua threw three touchdowns and was the second-highest scoring quarterback of Week 6.
- Breece Hall had 11 carries for 31 yards toward the end of the game, then the Eagles strategically let him score an 8-yard touchdown. Philly’s run defense shut Hall down, but that touchdown and 54 receiving yards on five catches made him a top-five back in both Standard and PPR.
- Chris Olave had two terrible games in a row and was going up against a tough Houston defense, but he bounced back with seven catches for 96 yards.
- The lone win of the week was George Kittle, who had one catch for 1 yard. Kittle has been really bad in four of the six weeks, and I have trouble trusting him any week.
The past is the past, though, and we are on to Week 7. While I like being right, this is more of a look at which defenses are humming and/or which offenses are struggling. It’s more about the process than the results and paying attention to a key factor for each player.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
Cousins has two top-five fantasy QB finishes, two others in the top 10, and two in the 20s. Week 6 was his lowest fantasy finish (tied for 24th) and the most concerning for his immediate future: against a bad Chicago defense (fourth-most fantasy points and passing yards per game allowed) Cousins had just 181 passing yards on 31 attempts and one touchdown.
The biggest difference for Cousins was the loss of star receiver Justin Jefferson in Week 5. The Vikings had no explosive element, and their offense scored just 12 points. Again, the Bears have been one of the worst defenses in the league, and Minnesota was supposed to be a passing attack with depth, not just Jefferson.
Jefferson will be out at least three more games, and Week 7 brings a destructive 49ers' defense. San Francisco has allowed the third-least fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and has a league-high 10 interceptions.
A quarterback missing maybe the best receiver in the NFL is facing off with one of the best defenses in the league who might be just a little angry that they lost last week. T.J. Hockenson might be the best pass-catching option for Cousins, but the 49ers are a top-five team in receiving yards and fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Everything is pointing toward a quiet game for Cousins.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
I chose backs playing against the Eagles the last two weeks, but let’s switch it up in Week 7 because I’m not going to make a case against the Miami run game. Ekeler is usually a player to never bet against, but he struggled in his return from injury last week and faces a good Kansas City defense.
Ekeler suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 1, an injury known to cause major issues for football players. I found this great study on the fantasy performance of players before and after a high ankle sprain, and one of the main takeaways is that it took players an average of 2.5 games to return close to their old form. Unsurprisingly, running backs and receivers took longest.
By those numbers, it would take Ekeler three or more games to return to form. His second game back is against a Chiefs team that has allowed the fifth-least fantasy points and sixth-least rushing yards per game to running backs.
Maybe the best part of Ekeler’s game is receiving, and the Chiefs have also excelled there: Kansas City has allowed the 11th-least receptions (two teams ahead of them have played only five games) and fifth-least receiving yards to backs.
I see a running back returning from injury and not at full strength against a championship-level defense. That spells a low-scoring week for Ekeler. He seemed to lack his usual burst and cutting ability, as the Cowboys were able to tackle him right away on many of his touches. I’d consider sitting Ekeler if you have a lot of depth, though I know that's a scary thought.
Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have allowed the seventh-least receiving yards and fourth-least fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They have been surprisingly good on both sides of the ball and have only lost to the Eagles by more than seven points. Aaron Donald is a game wrecker, and he will get after a young quarterback in Pittsburgh. The Rams are tied for 11th in points allowed per game.
Kenny Pickett hasn’t thrown for more than 235 yards in a game this season, and that top-yardage game is the only one in his career in which he has thrown more than one touchdown. Johnson has been out, which takes away one of Pickett’s best weapons, but he has been middling at best so far in his career.
Johnson is the top receiver in Pittsburgh but has been out since getting injured (hamstring) late in Week 1. He is on track to return, but his uncertain status along with the tough matchup makes him a player to sit. There will be better matchups for a player who will have top-20 weeks.
The same goes for George Pickens if Johnson is out; just skip the Pittsburgh receivers this week. Specific to Johnson, though, the risk of aggravating his injury lowers his floor, and the risk is too much for me.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens
I love LaPorta, so it pains me to list him here, but the Ravens have allowed the least fantasy points and second-least receiving yards to tight ends this season. The Lions faced Tampa Bay last week, who have allowed the fourth-least fantasy points per week to tight ends: though LaPorta had 11 targets, he caught only four passes and gained 36 yards.
LaPorta has seen the fourth-most targets among tight ends, just five less than first place Hockenson. The volume is usually there, and there’s a chance he catches eight passes against a tough defense as a safety blanket. There’s also reason to believe he will repeat last week’s quiet performance.
I feel worse about this prediction than any of the others, but a “struggle” in this case means a four-catch, 36-yard performance like last week, not being shut out. His quarterback, Jared Goff, was a candidate for the quarterback pick this week, so I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than the Lions have been used to lately. David Montgomery will be out, too, taking away some impact of the play action game.
You probably didn't draft LaPorta as your starter; in that case, you might have another tight end on your roster. Check the matchup to see if you can bench LaPorta, but some owners won't have a better option.
