Last-Minute Week 11 Start/Sit Decisions | Should You Start DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Others?
Determining the best starting options from the Monday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
The week 11 Monday night matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is one football fans had circled from the start of the season. It’s finally time to play that game, and it could be one of the best games of the season.
There will be fantasy stars all over the field tonight, many of which will help determine fantasy matchups this week. We’ll take a look at each position and determine the best starting options, in case you are indecisive.
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Quarterback Breakdown
Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will battle tonight.
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is having a bit of a down season by his lofty standards, but he’s capable of being the top fantasy quarterback any time he’s out there.
Mahomes has reached 200 passing yards and also thrown for at least one touchdown in all but one contest this season. He’s topped 250 passing yards in five of the team’s nine contests and has multiple touchdown passes in six games.
He’s added a bit as a ball carrier to, with 20 or more rushing yards in all but one contest. Mahomes’ season high in rushing yards is 51. He hasn’t scored on the ground though.
This is a great matchup on paper for Mahomes, as Philly defends the run well but struggles against the pass. The Eagles allow 20 fantasy points per week, giving up an average of 279 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. QBs only average 10 rushing yards.
Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts has arguably been the most consistent and top fantasy quarterback to this point of the season.
Hurts has reached 200 passing yards in all but two contests. He’s got at least one touchdown pass in each game, but only has four games with more than one touchdown pass.
Hurts also has reached at least 20 rushing yards in all but one of the team’s nine games. He’s got a season high of 72 rushing yards. Hurts has run for seven touchdowns, and has only not scored on the ground in three contests.
This matchup is tough for Hurts, as Kansas City allows only 13 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. QBs are averaging 195 passing yards and 18 rushing yards. They’ve barely averaged a touchdown pass a game.
Verdict: Hurts has been better than Mahomes this season, but given the matchup, I like Mahomes over Hurts this week. If Hurts can score again on the ground, their fantasy totals could be pretty similar, but I still like Mahomes to score a touch more.
Running Back Breakdown
Kansas City’s Isiah Pacheco and Philadelphia’s D’Andre Swift lead the running back position coming into Monday’s clash.
Swift has been a bit better fantasy option this season. He’s gotten 165 touches, rushing 135 times for 614 yards and three scores, while adding 166 yards and a touchdown on 30 receptions and 35 targets. His fantasy numbers would be much higher if Hurts would stop stealing the short touchdown runs.
Kenneth Gainwell has also played a fair amount for Philly, but only has 69 touches for the season. Gainwell has rushed 54 times for 175 yards and two scores, while catching 15-of-18 targets for 74 receiving yards.
Pacheco has gotten 148 touches on the season, rushing for 525 yards and three scores on 124 attempts and adding 160 receiving yards and a touchdown on 24 catches and 28 targets.
Jerick McKinnon has more touches than Clyde Edwards-Helaire of late. McKinnon only has rushed 12 times for 23 yards this season, but has caught 17 passes for 148 yards and three scores on 23 total targets. Edwards-Helaire has rushed 33 times for 109 yards and a touchdown, while catching 6-of-7 targets for 36 yards.
It might be tough sledding for running backs, as the Eagles are the best in the league in slowing backs, while the Chiefs are also inside the top 10. The Chiefs give up some rushing yards, but not many scores. The Eagles are stout against the run, but in PPR formats backs could earn some points, as they allow nearly five catches per game.
Verdict: It’s hard to not want to start Swift and Pacheco every week given the offenses they are in, but this week is definitely one to possibly consider benching them in. Between the two, I’d give the edge to Swift because he has the easier matchup. I’d try to avoid any of the backups if I could, but would take them in this order: McKinnon, Gainwell, Edwards-Helaire.
Wide Receiver Breakdown
Philly’s A.J. Brown is the best fantasy receiver in this contest. Brown has been targeted 92 times this season. He’s made 67 receptions for 1,005 yards and six touchdowns. He’s caught 5-of-8 red zone targets.
DeVonta Smith is up to 42 catches, 533 yards and four touchdowns on 60 targets.
Olamide Zaccheaus is a distant third option, catching half of his 12 targets for 87 yards and a score. Julio Jones is also an option, but has just two grabs on three targets for 11 yards and a score in his few games with the team.
The Eagles might need a receiver or two to step up, as tight end Dallas Goedert is out for Monday’s game.
This is a tough matchup for the Eagles’ receivers, as KC’s defense allows just 30 fantasy points to the position per week. Wideouts average 133 yards and just under a touchdown on 11 catches.
While Philly has a couple of good receivers, Kansas City hasn’t had a consistent one all season.
Rashee Rice is the team’s best option. He’s caught 32-of-41 targets for 378 yards and four scores this season. He’s got 10 red zone targets, with seven grabs on those looks.
Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney are also options. Moore has 201 yards and a touchdown on 16 catches and 30 targets. Toney is up to 127 yards and a score on 20 catches and 28 targets.
Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman should also see the field. Watson has eight targets over the past two games, and has 276 yards on 14 grabs and 25 targets for the season. MVS has seven targets over the past two games, with 249 yards and a touchdown on 14 catches and 24 targets for the season. Hardman has five targets over the past two games, and just 29 yards on six catches and eight targets in his return to the Chiefs.
While no receivers have delivered consistently, they are all decent fantasy options seeing as the Eagles allow the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. WRs average 201 yards and the most touchdowns on 17 receptions per game.
Verdict: Brown is by far the best fantasy receiver option in this game, and even in the tough matchup, should be started over anyone else confidently. After that, I’d play the matchup and take Rice over Smith. After that, it’s tough to really determine favorites, but I’d take them in this order: Watson, Valdes-Scantling, Moore, Hardman, Zaccheaus, Jones, Toney.
Tight End Breakdown
With Goedert out, Kansas City’s Travis Kelce is the only big name at tight end in this game.
Kelce has slowed down a bit after a hot start, but has 597 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 57 receptions and 72 targets for the season. He continues to be Mahomes’ favorite target without a true No. 1 wideout on the team.
Noah Gray had gotten three targets in each of the Chiefs’ last two contests. For the season, Gray has 214 yards and a score on 18 catches and 24 targets.
Jack Stoll has played the second-most snaps at TE for the Eagles. He’s only got two catches on three targets for the season, going for 10 yards. Grant Calcaterra or Albert Okwuegbunam could also get some snaps, but neither have even been targeted this season.
Verdict: There’s not really much to question here. Kelce is the obvious top TE to play. I’d go with Gray next and then Stoll. I’d want KC’s third option - Blake Bell - over Calcaterra and Okwuegbunam.
Final Thoughts and Preferred Flex Players
There’s some pretty easy start/sit decisions for both teams, but some tougher decisions to make because of the difficult matchups for the Eagles’ offensive players.
As for how I see the game unfolding, I like this to be a high-scoring affair, with the teams topping the over/under mark of 45.5 with ease. Philly is the more complete team, but I’ll take the Chiefs at home, and also like them to cover. I’ll settle for a final score of 34-31.
Players that are must starts for me are: Mahomes, Kelce and Brown. If for some reason, you need to choose between any of those guys for one spot, that’s the order I’d take them in too.
If you have flex spots to fill, here is how I’d rank all players: Kelce, Brown, Swift, Rice, Smith, Pacheco, Watson, Valdes-Scantling, Gray, Moore, McKinnon, Gainwell, Hardman, Zaccheaus, Stoll, Edwards-Helaire, Jones, Toney, Bell, Calcaterra and Okwuegbunam.
When talking about an offensive position (OP) spot, Mahomes is the No. 1 option for me, while Hurts would slot in fourth, behind Kelce and Brown and in front of Swift and Rice.
Best of luck with your last-minute start decisions!
