Fantasy Stars Who will Struggle in Week 14: C.J. Stroud, Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker, Stefon Diggs, Evan Engram

Sometimes, do you ever just wonder, “Why even bother?” That could sum up Week 13 in choosing stars who might struggle. All four players had at least serviceable days, and three of them starred the way they were expected to:

• I didn’t want to choose Jalen Hurts, but there wasn’t really any other option at quarterback. I took a big L, as Hurts threw for almost 300 yards, with one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown.
• Joe Mixon had only been a top-10 weekly running back three times before Week 13. It didn’t matter, as he shredded a tough Jacksonville defense for 117 total yards and two touchdowns.
• Cooper Kupp had six receptions and a touchdown, but he only gained 39 yards. The touchdown saved his day, and the receptions helped in PPR, but Kupp doesn’t look anything close to the player he was in previous seasons.
• I said that Trey McBride wasn’t a star, but I was still going to include him; he had eight receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown.

Woof. Weeks like that will happen, though, as I focus on fantasy “stars” in this column, usually players you are starting every week. Those players are supposed to be matchup-proof, but that’s not always the case, especially against the top units.

Let’s try again in Week 14 (hoping for better results, of course). This week’s group includes a young star quarterback, two banged up running backs, a receiver facing one of his toughest tests of the season, and a tight end who might have a major QB shift.

 

Quarterback

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans @ New York Jets

Stroud should be honored: a rookie quarterback in an article about fantasy stars. That rookie has blown past every expectation, though, and is closer to winning the MVP than he is to losing out on Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Stroud has been a top-15 fantasy QB nine times in his 12 games, according to Fantasy Pros. That’s staggering consistency for a player who wasn’t considered draftable in fantasy before the season. Maybe most impressive, Stroud has thrown for 20 touchdowns and just five interceptions.

The Jets had a few poor performances over the last month against top-tier teams, as Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa were able to move the ball through the air. It’s not fair to hold teams up against only the best they have faced, though, and New York bounced back against a weaker Atlanta team last week.

Stroud has only had under 250 yards in four games: against Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans. All four teams are in the top 11 in least passing yards per game and per attempt allowed. The Jets are third and second, respectively, in those categories.

This isn’t just another team: the Jets have been a great defense aside from a few blips (which were also driven by the lack of productivity from the offense). Stroud has shown the ability to overcome and make big plays, but he’s unlikely to be a fantasy starter this week.

 

Running Back

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

I am listing two players here because they are in similar situations: bell-cow running backs who are weekly starters but have uncertain statuses and tough matchups in Week 14.

Henry had a huge Week 13 before leaving the game to be evaluated for a concussion. There isn’t a lot of clarity on his status right now. Miami’s offensive running game is obviously great, but their run defense is also a top unit.

The Dolphins have given up the eighth-least rushing yards per game (third-least over the last three weeks) and seventh-least rush yards per attempt. They have also given up just the 11th-least fantasy points to backs on the season, meaning they don’t give value back by allowing touchdowns or receiving production to the position.

Walker was hurt in Week 11 and has missed the last two games, and his status for Week 14 is in question. Walker was dominating touches before he went down. He is an undoubted weekly starter when healthy.

The 49ers shut down the run. They are allowing the least rushing yards per game and eighth-least yards per attempt. They are fifth in least fantasy points allowed to running backs.

You would never usually consider benching either guy, but (assuming they play) there is a chance of re-injury or a lightened load while working back, especially in Walker’s case. Henry might have a slow game, but he will get plenty of touches; Walker could split carries against a tough defense, and I would be wary of inserting him into my lineup.

 

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kupp would have been a great pick here again this week against Baltimore, but let’s spread the wealth. Diggs has had success against Kansas City in the past, but this is a different Chiefs' defense. 

KC has allowed the sixth-least passing yards per game and fifth-least yards per attempt. No team has gained 300 passing yards against the Chiefs. Josh Allen is great, but he might be making more plays with his legs than by throwing the ball this week.

Diggs has had a good season, but he was also outside of the top 50 receivers in fantasy scoring in both Weeks 10 and 11. There have been a few quiet weeks for Diggs, and Week 14 could be another one against a tough pass D.

 

Tight Ends

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns

Engram got into the end zone for the first time in Week 13, surely a welcome sight for owners who have been suffering(?) from productive but unspectacular games most of the season. Nine receptions and 82 yards to go with the score made for one of Engram’s best games of the season.

He also had the worst thing happen other than an injury to himself: Engram lost quarterback Trevor Lawrence on an ugly ankle sprain. Lawrence hasn’t been ruled out for Week 14, but I find it more likely he misses a week or two rather than returning right back into the lineup.

Engram has been more consistent than efficient, catching at least four passes in every game but never averaging more than 10 yards per reception. He is likely to see less accurate, quality targets with Lawrence out, so those five catches might not be there if the QB misses time. Engram is likely to be much less effective without Lawrence.

On top of his own situation, Engram must face a bullying Browns defense this week that has dominated tight ends. Cleveland is allowing the least total passing yards per game (by a lot) and the least fantasy points per game to tight ends.

It’s going to be a rough week for all of Jacksonville, and Engram will be part of the struggle.