Fantasy Stars who will Struggle in Week 15: Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Mixon, D.J. Moore and Evan Engram

It’s crunch time. There’s nowhere to hide: the fantasy playoffs have found you (if you were lucky enough). Every decision now can be the difference between playing for a championship and ignoring your team for the next few weeks.

One of the biggest struggles for fantasy owners is deciding whether to trust your stars during the fantasy playoffs or rely on matchups. A lot of that depends on your full roster and the matchups, and my goal here is to identify players who might be better left on your bench this week, regardless of their status.

It was a bit of a mixed bag choosing fantasy stars who would struggle in Week 14, with one player putting up his best game of the year, another his worst game of the year, and the others struggling to produce:

• C.J. Stroud was having an awful game before leaving with a concussion, averaging just 4 yards per attempt against a tough Jets pass defense. Stroud left in the fourth quarter and was just 10-23 passing for 91 yards.
• Derrick Henry had 17 carries for 34 yards. Oh, and he also scored two touchdowns, salvaging a good fantasy day on a poor performance. So goes the wheel of fantasy football, especially when the ghost of Jerome Bettis (who is still alive) makes an appearance.
• Kenneth Walker returned from injury and had one less carry than Zach Charbonnet, turning his eight rushes into just 21 yards. Four catches for 33 yards helped, but Walker was eased back into the lineup against San Francisco.
• Stefon Diggs had a quiet game against a stout Kansas City defense, tallying just four catches for 24 yards. The Chiefs have held every passing game they’ve faced this season in check, not allowing 300 passing yards in any game.
• Evan Engram followed up his best game of the season with his NEW best game of the season, turning 11 catches into 95 yards and two touchdowns. After not scoring before Week 13, Engram has three touchdowns in the last two weeks.

With the stakes as high as they have been all season, let’s identify one player at each position who might struggle in Week 15. This week we have a familiar face, a wide receiver beating the odds, and two consistent performers with tough matchups.

 

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

It hasn’t gone well for me when picking against Tua, but there’s reason to think he will have a hard time this week. Let’s start with the Jets: New York is allowing the second-least pass yards per game and per attempt. They just held Josh Allen to 233 yards, and 83 of those were to running back James Cook.

Tagovailoa has been inconsistent, with just one top-10 fantasy performance and one game over 300 passing yards between Weeks 9-14 (five games and a bye). In Week 12 against these same Jets, Tua had 243 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.

A game like that would be reasonable to expect again, but there’s another glaring reason Tua and the Dolphins may struggle on offense: Tyreek Hill sustained an injury early in Week 14 and only played sparingly after that, and his status coming into this week is cloudy.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hill suit up even if he’s compromised, but he is likely to be far less effective if he can’t play his usual snaps and/or at his usual level. Tagovailoa will surely feel the effects of not having the most explosive receiver in the league at full strength.

A tough defense and a team missing its biggest weapon (the full version, at least) leads me to believe this is going to be a tough week for Tua. Failing to reach 250 yards again and throwing a few interceptions is more likely than not in my eyes.

 

Running Back

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals vs Minnesota Vikings

Week 14 was another solid game for the veteran Mixon, with 125 yards and a touchdown on 24 touches. Indianapolis is a more giving defense than Minnesota on the ground, though, ranking league-average or worse in rush yards per game, rush yards per attempt, and fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.

The Vikings rate much better against opposing rush attacks. They are third in least rushing yards per game, fourth in yards per attempt, and fourth in fantasy points per game allowed to backs. Teams can hurt Minnesota through the air, but this defense doesn’t give many inches on the ground.

Mixon has been consistent this year but has failed to top 90 rushing yards in any game. He has subsisted on touchdowns recently, scoring at least once in six of Cincinnati’s last seven games. The Vikes have allowed just four rushing touchdowns all season (tied for third-least) and only one through the air to running backs.

Mixon will struggle to find room against Minnesota, and Cinci is likely to focus on the pass most of the game. Touchdowns can be random, and Mixon has showed the ability to score, but he is less likely to find the end zone this week than most others.

 

Wide Receiver

D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns

I was heavily against Moore before the season because he was moving to a run-happy Chicago team, and I expected him to see the ball much less often than in past seasons. Instead, he’s sixth amongst receivers in standard scoring and seventh in PPR; it’s safe to say I was WAY off on that one.

Cleveland is a bear on defense, though: they allow the least passing yards per game and the third-least yards per attempt on the season. Chicago’s passing game is middling at best, even when Justin Fields is at his top form, and they will likely struggle to find easy completions.

Moore is talented enough to break a big play, so it’s hard to bench him, but I like more consistency when it’s available. Some might not have that luxury and will be starting Moore because of a lack of alternative options, but be aware that this could be an anonymous week for the Chicago offense.

Cleveland lost two defensive starters this week to injury, a safety and a defensive lineman. That changes the calculus, but I’ll stick with Moore as a player likely to struggle, just with less confidence. Tyreek Hill is another player to consider with great caution, as it's unknown how much he will be able to play and how effective he can be with his injury.

 

Tight End

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens

Let’s try it again. I usually try to pick different players from week to week, but Engram busted out last week and made me look like a fool, so this time it’s personal!!

In reality, I love Engram, both in fantasy and real-life football. He has been the most consistent receiver for Trevor Lawrence over the past two seasons and is a top eight player at his position in both standard and PPR scoring.

His three touchdowns over two games are a welcome return to the mean for a player who hadn’t scored before Week 13. Engram was always going to catch touchdowns at a higher rate, but it took more than half the season for him to find the end zone.

He excelled against the stingy Browns, but Engram must do it against a Ravens defense this week that might be the best in the league. Baltimore has given up the seventh-least fantasy points per game to tight ends, the fourth-least passing yards per game, and the least passing yards per attempt.

This has the makings of a rough game for the entire Jacksonville offense. The team has had its bright spots, but they’ve also hit staggering lows versus expectations, and Week 15 looks like it could be one of those poor games, including for Engram.