Week 15 Saturday Games Player Prop Bets: Jake Browning, Ty Chandler, Josh Downs, Jaylen Warren, Jahmyr Gibbs and More
Discussing player prob bets for players playing in one of the three NFL games on Saturday.
Week 15 of the NFL season has a trio of games on Saturday. If your favorite team isn’t playing in any of those games, maybe you want to add some excitement to the contests, so let’s check out some player prop bets.
We’ll cover prop bets from two players from all six teams playing Saturday.
Place smarter prop bets. Check out our Player Prop Bet Research Tool, which makes it easy to find the best prop bets every week!
Vikings vs. Bengals
Jake Browning Prop Bets
Let’s kick things off with Jake Browning, who has performed well in place of the injured Joe Burrow.
Browning’s average passing yards line is 244.5, while his passing touchdown line is 1.5.
Browning has topped that passing line in two of three starts, but has only hit the TD line once. The Vikings are allowing an average of 234.2 yards and 1.1 passing TDs per game. Minnesota has only allowed 245 or more yards in five games this season.
Browning has been a great story over the past couple weeks, but I see the Bengals’ offense as a whole slowing down a bit against the Vikings.
Verdict: Under 244.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns.
Joe Mixon Prop Bets
Let’s turn to the Bengals’ top running back next.
Mixon has an average line of 91.5 for total rushing and receiving yards in week 15.
Even with the emergence of Chase Brown, Mixon still has 49 touches over the past two games. He’s got 117 and 125 total yards over the past two weeks, and has 92 or more total yards in six contests overall.
The Vikings’ defense allows opposing running backs to average 69.9 rushing yards and 31.2 receiving yards and are one of the better defenses in the league in slowing RBs.
While those averages might turn some off on Mixon (because of what Brown might steal), I believe the Bengals will have a better day on the ground than most teams against Minnesota. Mixon should get enough work to churn out another 100+ yard day.
Verdict: Over 91.5 total rushing and receiving yards.
Ty Chandler Prop Bets
Chandler will be the top back for the Vikings in this one with Alexander Mattison out with an injury. I like Chandler to be the workhorse and get almost all of the RB touches.
His average line for total rushing and receiving yards is 79.5.
Chandler hasn’t handled a full workload this season, so I want to focus on his averages. He is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and 6.9 yards per catch.
Cincy’s defense allows an average of 20.2 rushing attempts and 89.8 yards, while backs also average 3.9 receptions for an additional 26.7 yards.
With those numbers in mind, and expecting Chandler to dominate the touches, this is one of my favorite prop bets that I’ve come across.
Verdict: Over 79.5 total rushing and receiving yards.
Jordan Addison Prop Bets
Addison has enjoyed a strong rookie season, but has been a bit underwhelming of late. His production has dropped off since Kirk Cousins’ injury.
Addison has an average line of 37.5 receiving yards for this week, while having a line of 3.5 catches.
For the season, Addison has caught 56-of-85 targets for 713 yards and seven touchdowns. He had just three targets a week ago, and now is dealing with his fourth starting quarterback of the season.
With Mattison out, Addison could get a couple more looks this week. Justin Jefferson is also questionable for the game, and even if he’s playing, he likely won’t be at 100%, meaning Addison should be pretty involved. Addison has four or more catches in all but five games this season. He’s been at 38 or more receiving yards in all but three games.
I like Addison to bounce back this week after last week’s dud.
Verdict: Over 37.5 receiving yards and 3.5 catches.
Steelers vs. Colts
George Pickens Prop Bets
Let’s stick with the wide receiver position as we transition to the afternoon game. Pickens has a line of 3.5 receptions and average line of 47.5 receiving yards for week 15.
The Colts’ defense is a pretty average one when it comes to slowing opposing receivers. Wideouts average 11.1 receptions for 146.5 yards.
Pickens will split most of the past-catching duties with Diontae Johnson. Tight end Pat Freiermuth also will factor in some.
Pickens has four or more catches in all but five games this season. He’s been at or over 48 receiving yards just six times.
The Steelers’ offense has a much different look with Mitch Trubisky than it does when Kenny Pickett is back there. Given how the passing game looked last week, I’m not a huge fan of the team’s pass catchers this week. Pickens should be involved, but I think he’ll be limited.
Verdict: Over 3.5 catches, but under 47.5 receiving yards.
Jaylen Warren Prop Bets
Warren has an average line of 68.5 total rushing and receiving yards for week 15.
Warren splits the workload with Najee Harris, but still gets a ton of touches every week. Warren has 10 or more touches in each of the team’s past four games.
The Colts’ defense is one of the worst when it comes to slowing opposing backs. Indy allows an average of 106.2 rushing yards and 42.7 receiving yards.
The workload is usually split around 50/50 between Warren and Harris, and I see something similar happening again this week, especially seeing as to how the pass game looked last week. I think Warren should be at or above 15 touches, so I like his chances at a big day.
Verdict: Over 68.5 total rushing and receiving yards.
Zack Moss Prop Bets
Let’s stick with the running back position and focus on Indy’s lead back. Moss has an average line of 91.5 total rushing and receiving yards for week 15.
Moss will again be the team’s workhorse as Jonathan Taylor misses another game. Moss has at least 10 touches over the past three games, and has 38 between the last two games combined.
Moss has 92 or more total yards on just three occasions this season. The last time he hit that mark was early October.
The Steelers’ defense is an average matchup for him. Pittsburgh allows an average of 99.1 rushing yards and 30.2 receiving yards.
I like Moss to have an outing that resembles some of the ones he delivered at the start of the season. If he can’t get going on the ground, he should be involved in the pass game.
Verdict: Over 91.5 rushing and receiving yards.
Josh Downs Player Props
Downs comes into week 15 with an average line of 43.5 receiving yards and 3.5 catches.
Downs has been the Colts’ second-most targeted pass catcher this season. He’s up to 612 yards and two scores. Down has 20 targets over the past three games, but had just three last week and five the week before that.
Downs has four or more grabs in seven of the 13 games he’s played in. The rookie has 44 or more receiving yards in four games, with another game at 43 yards.
The matchup ahead for Downs is pretty average. Pittsburgh’s defense allows an average of 11.5 catches on 19.6 targets, going for 165.3 yards.
Indy has been a pass-heavy team most of the season, even with Moss and Taylor in the backfield, and with only Moss back there this week, I think the Colts pass a lot again. Michael Pittman should lead the pass game, but there’s plenty of room left for Downs to also deliver a strong outing.
Verdict: Over 3.5 receptions and 43.5 receiving yards.
Broncos vs. Lions
Russell Wilson Prop Bets
Wilson enters week 15 with average lines of 219 passing yards, 28.5 rushing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns.
On the season, Wilson has topped 219 passing yards just five times. He thrown for two or more scores seven times. Wilson has 29 or more rushing yards on seven occasions.
The Lions are a favorable matchup for Wilson. Detroit allows an average of 245.2 passing yards, 30.7 rushing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns.
The Lions are much better at slowing the run, so I like Wilson to rack up plenty of passing attempts, and also have to use his legs a decent amount. As long as he doesn’t have a couple touchdowns stolen by short rushing touchdowns, he could be one of the week’s top fantasy QBs.
Verdict: Over 219 passing yards, 28.5 rushing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns.
Javonte Williams Player Props
Williams is Denver’s lead back, but loses touches to Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin. Williams’ average line for total rushing and receiving yards is 84.5.
Williams has only had 85 or more total yards on four occasions this season. The Lions’ defense will pose a tough matchup, with Detroit allowing just 61.7 rushing yards and 33.6 receiving yards per week.
With Perine and McLaughlin sucking up some touches, I think Williams could be held relatively in check.
Verdict: Under 84.5 rushing and receiving yards.
Sam LaPorta Player Props
LaPorta comes into week 15 with average lines of 51 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions.
LaPorta has topped 51 receiving yards six times. He’s finished with five or more grabs on seven occasions.
Denver’s defense allows an average of 69.4 yards on 6.2 receptions to opposing tight ends. Seeing those averages, I love LaPorta’s lines.
Verdict: Over 51 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions.
Jahmyr Gibbs Player Props
Gibbs has an average line of 86.5 total rushing and receiving yards for week 15.
Gibbs splits the backfield with David Montgomery, but still gets a ton of work every week. Gibbs is at nine or more touches in each of the past four games.
The rookie back has 87 or more total yards in four contests this season. Denver allows an average of 124.7 rushing yards and 40.2 receiving yards to opposing backs.
This is a tough one for me, but I think the split backfield hurts Gibbs quite a bit this week. The Denver defense also has been much better of late.
Verdict: Under 86.5 total rushing and receiving yards.
More Numbers
The FantasySP Prop Bet Research Tool allows you to do deep dives into advanced analytics on prop bets. Here are some notable numbers regarding the players in this discussion.
Wilson has an over/under mark of 8-5 when it comes to rushing yard props. Browning is 3-0 for passing yard props.
Addison and Pickens are both 8-5 when it comes to receiving yard props. LaPorta is 7-4 when it comes to reception props.
All over/under marks I noted are using Draftkings as the operator. The research tool allows you to use your favorite operator and play with all kinds of numbers. Check it out!
