Week 16 Monday Games Player Prop Bets: Patrick Mahomes, DeVonta Smith, Lamar Jackson and Christian McCaffrey
Discussing player prop bets for players participating in NFL games on Monday.
Week 16 of the NFL season wraps up Christmas Day with three Monday games. If your favorite team isn’t playing in those games, maybe you want to add some excitement to the contests, so let’s check out some player prop bets.
We’ll cover prop bets for four players - one from each of the best teams playing.
Place smarter prop bets. Check out our Player Prop Bet Research Tool, which makes it easy to find the best prop bets every week!
Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets
Mahomes goes into week 16 with average lines of 268.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns.
Mahomes has topped that yardage eight times this season, while throwing multiple touchdowns on nine occasions. The last time the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders met, Mahomes threw for 298 yards and two scores.
The Raiders’ defense on paper is a pretty average matchup. Vegas allows an average of 225.6 passing yards and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game.
The Kansas City quarterback is just 5-9 against these two lines this season.
Verdict: I liked what I saw from Mahomes the last time these two teams battled and expect to see more of the same this week. Isiah Pacheco is back for the Chiefs, but in an effort to protect him, I see the Chiefs throwing the ball plenty - then it just comes down to Mahomes’ receivers catching the ball. Give me over 268.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns.
DeVonta Smith Prop Bets
Smith comes into week 16 with average lines of 55.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions.
Smith has five or more catches in all but five games this season. The talented wideout has topped that yardage mark in seven games, and missed it by several yards on a few other occasions.
The last time Smith failed to hit that reception mark was in early November. He failed to reach that yardage last week, but got it the previous four games before that.
The Philadelphia Eagles match up with the New York Giants in week 16. It’s a great matchup for Philly wideouts. New York’s defense allows an average of 13.9 receptions for 167 yards to opposing wideouts.
Smith is 9-5 against his reception lines so far this season, while going 8-6 against his yardage lines.
Verdict: Philly has struggled a bit of late, and they need to get things moving in a positive direction before the postseason. I think that starts this week, and I like Smith to excel during a big offensive day. I’ll take over 4.5 receptions and 55.5 receiving yards.
Lamar Jackson Prop Bets
Jackson has average lines of 220.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 59.5 rushing yards for week 16.
The Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback has reached that passing yardage in half of his 14 games played. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns just five times. Jackson has eclipsed that rushing yardage in five contests so far.
His matchup with the San Francisco 49ers is a very tough one. San Fran’s defense allows opposing quarterbacks to average 240.4 passing yards, 1.1 passing touchdowns and just 16.6 rushing yards.
Jackson is 8-6 against his passing yardage lines this season. He’s 7-7 against his rushing yardage lines and just 5-9 against his passing touchdown lines.
Verdict: I see this matchup being a defensive battle, with both offenses struggling quite a bit to find the end zone. I see Jackson needing to use his legs quite a bit, which will negate his passing stats - I also don’t think Jackson will have too many big runs. I’m taking under 220.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and 59.5 rushing yards for Jackson.
Christian McCaffrey Prop Bets
Let’s cap things off with McCaffrey, one of the candidates for MVP. His average line is 121.5 total rushing and receiving yards for week 16.
McCaffrey has topped that amount eight times, and missed out on it twice by less than 5 yards. He’s topped the mark in each of the last four games.
The Ravens will be one of McCaffrey’s toughest challenges of the season. Baltimore’s defense allows an average of 82.4 rushing yards and 28.7 receiving yards to opposing backs.
McCaffrey is 12-2 against this stat for the season. The two weeks he was under were against top-10 defenses.
Verdict: As I said in Jackson’s writeup, I see this as a very low-scoring game and challenging one for the offenses. I think McCaffrey will lead the Niners’ offense, but I’d take under 121.5 total rushing and receiving yards. I do think he’ll score a touchdown to offset a bit less yardage for fantasy owners.
