Revisiting Bold Fantasy Football Predictions for the NFL's East Divisions: Lessons from Saquon Barkley, Jayden Daniels, Dalton Kincaid and More
How close were preseason predictions for players in the AFC and NFC East?
Bold predictions are a big part of “pre” articles: preseason, pre-draft, pre-free agency. Before anything actually happens, all we can do is make our best guesses as to what is about to take place.
As someone who loves stealing ideas from others, I did my own form of bold predictions before the fantasy football season began. I made one prognostication per team, usually relating to one player. You can find those articles linked below.
These predictions were meant to be realistic but also push the boundary of what could happen. That inevitably means some of the guesses were wrong (some spectacularly so), but there were also some hits, and there are lessons to learn from both categories.
Let’s look at each preseason prediction I made for the teams in the AFC and NFC East divisions. I will give you the reason I thought each thing could happen, what actually happened, and the lesson we can learn.
Fantasy points and rankings are from FantasyPros and will be referenced often.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid will be a top-three fantasy tight end
Reason: Kincaid was a first-round pick in 2023 and was entering his second season without a true WR1 on his team.
This ended up being way off. Kincaid finished as TE28 in standard scoring and TE30 in PPR. He missed four games (including the meaningless Week 18), so that’s part of it, but Kincaid came nowhere close to filling the quasi-WR1 role I imagined he might.
I was thinking something like a Travis Kelce-type player who would be the team’s lead receiver at times while uneven wide receivers struggled to make consistent impacts. That situation did play out this season, but it was with Brock Bowers and the Raiders, not Kincaid.
Lesson: Don’t assume major jumps in production before you see it. This relates to every rookie, but maybe it’s even more important when projecting a big jump for a guy who has been in the league.
Miami Dolphins: Raheem Mostert will outscore De'Von Achane in standard scoring leagues
Reason: Achane was being drafted much higher in fantasy leagues after Mostert led the league in rushing touchdowns in 2023. With a similar roster structure, it made sense that Mostert would play a similar role with similar production, even if regression was almost guaranteed.
Oh boy. Part of the reason this was dead wrong is because Mostert dealt with injuries, missing four games, but the big thing is that Achane played like a star lead back while Mostert was mostly anonymous. Achane will be drafted as a top-10 fantasy back next year after finishing within that group in all scoring formats.
Lesson: Age matters, as does prior performance before a breakout season. Mostert was a middling back his whole career, and one big season wasn’t enough to change that.
New England Patriots: No Patriot will finish among the top 20 at his position
Reason: They had no skill player who stood out as a playmaker, a bad offensive line, and a low-ceiling backup starting the season under center until rookie Drake Maye was ready to take over.
Things went according to plan: Jacoby Brissett started the first five games before giving way to the rookie. Maye started the rest of the way but barely played in Week 18, cutting his fantasy scoring chances short and leaving him as QB23.
Rhamondre Stevenson was RB27/28 depending on format; no New England receiver hit higher than DeMario Douglas as WR47 in PPR. I figured that tight end Hunter Henry would be most likely to reach the top 20, and that turned out to be the case, as he finished 12th in PPR and 16th in standard.
This was technically wrong because of Henry, but the idea was right: New England was staring at a dearth of talent and unlikely to make much noise in fantasy football, and that’s the way it played out.
Lesson: Rookie quarterbacks don’t generally make their skill players better; it’s the other way around. Remember this wherever Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders end up next year.
New York Jets: Breece Hall will reach 2,000 total yards and 15 touchdowns
Reason: He was drafted as RB2 in many fantasy leagues after getting nearly 1,600 total yards and nine TDs in 2023. With Aaron Rodgers returning, it made sense that Hall would see a bump in production, even if the veteran QB was noticeably below his prime level.
Hall was close to his 2023 numbers but down just a bit. He played one less game and had 118 fewer rushing yards, 108 fewer receiving yards (on 19 less catches), and one less total touchdown. It was a disappointing season for everyone and everything related to the Jets, and Hall stayed stagnant among the low-level offense.
Lesson: Rodgers is done. Also, there are a lot of other elements that drive running back success more, like offensive line play.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott will finish among the top 10 running backs in rushing touchdowns
Reason: Rico Dowdle was set to touch the ball most in the Dallas backfield, but Elliott was a player who had scored 10 and 12 touchdowns in his last two seasons with the team (2021-22). It was easy to see him as a short-yardage back who would vulture touchdowns on a good offense.
Well, several things here were wrong. First off, Dallas didn’t have a very good offense, averaging the sixth-least yards per pass attempt, sixth-least yards per rush attempt, and the 12th-least points per game. While injuries played a big role, this team didn't look anywhere near contention.
Without easy scoring opportunities, Elliott had no way to stand out, as he averaged a career-low 3.1 yards per carry and accumulated just 295 total yards and three touchdowns. The Cowboys cut Elliott so he could jump on with a playoff team, and I won’t say him signing with the Chargers was the reason they lost in the first round, but it couldn’t have helped, right? (I’m only kidding, of course; Elliott was a nonfactor who didn’t influence their playoff game.)
Lesson: Elliott is done. Injuries hit Dallas hard, and maybe there is a universe in which Elliott played well, but this wasn’t it. I won’t be fooled again if he signs somewhere next season where it looks like he could have a role.
Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley will finish the season as RB1
Reason: Miles Sanders and D'Andre Swift had been star-level fantasy backs in the two previous seasons while otherwise topping out as flex players on other teams.
This was my best prediction of the season. I saw Barkley as the only credible player with an RB1 argument in the draft other than Christian McCaffrey (that’s a whole different story). Sure enough, Barkley kept up the tradition of Philly running backs excelling in fantasy football.
Barkley took it to another level, though, because he is an elite talent, while Sanders and Swift are just decent players who found themselves in the right place at the right time. Barkley ended up with 2,005 rushing yards, 278 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns, putting him at RB1 in standard scoring and RB2 in PPR, behind Jahmyr Gibbs. Barkley sat out Week 18 while Gibbs scored 46 PPR points, the only reason Barkley fell to number two.
Lesson: Trust the numbers. We knew Barkley’s talent, but he had never been in position to truly thrive. Philadelphia had a phenomenal running back ecosystem, and Barkley found himself making history.
New York Giants: No Giant will finish the season among the top 20 at his position
Reason: Rookie receiver Malik Nabers was the only skill player with a credible case as a top-20 player, and quarterback Daniel Jones was likely to get benched at some point in the season unless he came out and excelled.
The Jones portion was dead on. The team decided to sit him down to avoid triggering guarantees for next season, then they released him upon Jones’ request. Jones finished as QB29 and would have been among the top 20 QBs if he played the whole season, but that was part of the equation.
Rookie running back Tyrone Tracy came out of nowhere to give the team a back to be excited about, but he only made it to the mid-20s among backs. Fellow rookie, tight end Theo Johnson, showed a few flashes before finishing the season on IR.
Nabers was the real deal, though. He was a top-10 receiver in both formats and ended with over 100 receptions, setting a Giants record and a rookie record until Bowers broke that rookie mark later in the day.
Lesson: The Giants suck? New York could actually be on the right track with a promising rookie at each skill position, but they will need an upgrade at quarterback to help those players take steps forward in 2025.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels will finish as QB8 or better
Reason: Running quarterbacks score more fantasy points, and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner had just busted out as a dual-threat star in college. He was primed to start producing yards immediately with a decent situation around him.
If Barkley was my best prediction, this might be No. 2. I wanted to say “QB5 or better” in the original prediction, but I shied away from the spirit of the article and wasn’t quite so bold. Daniels ended up as QB5 (let that be a lesson: don’t underestimate your expectations of other people).
Washington jumped into the playoffs after taking Daniels second overall, reminiscent of the Redskins grabbing Robert Griffin III in 2012 and making the same ascent. It looks like the Commanders now have their quarterback of the future, and Daniels should be just as exciting for potential fantasy owners.
