Steelers, Bills Fantasy Football Start/Sit Decisions: Should You Start Josh Allen, Mason Rudolph, Stefon Diggs, Najee Harris and More?

The NFL playoffs continue with three intriguing Wild Card Round games on Sunday.

Let’s take a look at the third game of the playoffs - Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills - and determine what guys you should be starting in playoff fantasy leagues or DFS. UPDATE: The game was moved to Monday afternoon. It's still supposed to be snowing then, and will actually be colder, but the winds won't be gusting nearly as high. The slight change in weather does not affect any of my start/sit decisions significantly.

We’ll provide an outlook for each game, so check back for more stories. The Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans article can be read here, and the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs article is available here.

Quarterback Options

This is a very one-sided quarterback battle. Josh Allen will power the Bills, while Mason Rudolph continues to start for the Steelers.

Allen finished as QB1 in fantasy this season. He topped 200 passing yards in all but four games, including having five games over 300 yards. Allen threw a touchdown in all but one game, while having nine games with multiple touchdown passes. His only big negative was turnovers, with only three games without a pick and three multi-interception outings.

Allen made up for the interceptions with his running ability. He rushed for over 30 yards on eight occasions. Allen had a rushing score in all but five games, including three games with two rushing touchdowns.

Rudolph went 3-0 in his starts this season. He had 290 and 274 passing yards in his first two games before being held to 152 yards in the regular season finale. Rudolph only threw three touchdowns in his starts, but avoided any interceptions. He doesn’t add much as a runner.

This is a tougher matchup for Rudolph, as the Bills’ defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to score just 14 fantasy points per week. The Steelers’ defense surrendered just 15 fantasy points to the position per week.

Both offenses are pretty healthy going into the game. Allen will be without Gabe Davis, while Najee Harris is banged up for the Steelers. Another thing to note is that the weather is supposed to be miserable for the game, with frigid temperatures and extremely high wind gusts.

Verdict: Allen is the clear top fantasy option in this game, and I’d definitely be in favor of starting him this week. The weather could mean a bigger emphasis on the ground game, but Allen can add to his fantasy totals in that department, so I’m not too worried. I’d avoid Rudolph this week - the matchup isn’t great and the weather conditions won’t do him any favors.

Running Back Options

If the weather is bad, then the running backs from this contest are good fantasy options, right?

James Cook is Buffalo’s workhorse, although I envision a bigger-bodied Leonard Fournette to maybe get a few more touches.

Cook has over 1,500 total yards this season, but just six total touchdowns. Fournette only played the past couple weeks, but this kind of weather has to be part of the reason he was brought in.

Harris and Jaylen Warren are a strong 1-2 punch out of the Pittsburgh backfield. 

Harris’ injury is one he’s been managing for a while, and it didn’t stop him from getting 58 touches over the past two weeks. He’s got over 1,200 total yards and eight touchdowns this season, while Warren has over 1,000 total yards and four scores.

Each defense allowed 21 fantasy points per week this season, so it’s a pretty even matchup for all the running backs in this contest.

Verdict: I like Cook the best in this matchup, thinking that he’ll be the workhorse for his team and that the Bills will be playing from ahead most of the way. Harris is my favorite fantasy option for Pittsburgh, but if the Steelers get behind big early, Warren could be the better fantasy performer because he’s the better pass catcher. Fournette will get a handful of touches, but unless he scores, he’s not topping Cook, Harris or Warren. I’m good with starting Cook, but am leaning against Harris and Warren. I’m not starting Fournette unless Cook can’t play for some reason.

Wide Receiver Options

With Davis out, Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir are going to be Buffalo’s top pass-catching options.

Diggs had an underwhelming finish to the season, but still had 1,183 receiving yards and eight scores this season. Shakir went for 611 yards and two scores this year.

Trent Sherfield could pick up some of the slack with Davis out. He scored a touchdown last week, but has just 86 yards on 11 grabs this season.

George Pickens emerged down the stretch as one of the better fantasy wide receivers. He went for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns this season.

Diontae Johnson is a solid No. 2 option and had 717 yards and five scores this year despite missing several games.

Allen Robinson is a third option, but hasn’t been consistently involved all season, so don’t expect it to start now.

This is a tougher matchup for the Steelers’ wideouts, as the Bills’ defense allows just 30 fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Buffalo could be missing a couple secondary members, which could definitely work in the favor of the Pittsburgh receivers. The Steelers’ defense allowed just 32 fantasy points per week, so it’s not a super favorable matchup for them either.

Verdict: Diggs’ slow finish to the season makes this conversation tougher than it needs to be, but I’d still say he’s got the best fantasy potential in this game. Pickens is the top option for the Steelers, and he and Diggs are the only two wideouts I’d feel confident starting. Shakir and Johnson are pretty close in my book, but I’d give Shakir the edge because of his quarterback - although I’d lean against starting both guys. Robinson and Sherfield are guys I’d avoid without too much extra thought.

Tight End Options

The Bills have Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox at tight end, while Pat Freiermuth is the Steelers’ best TE.

Kincaid ended up second on the team in targets despite not being heavily involved early in the season. He finished with 673 yards and two touchdowns and had 15 targets over the past two weeks. Knox worked through an injury this season and has just 186 yards but two scores this season.

Freiermuth also missed several weeks with an injury, but was mostly underwhelming while on the field. He tallied 308 yards and two touchdowns for the season.

The matchup for Kincaid and Knox is a touch more favorable, as the Steelers’ defense allows 12 fantasy points per week. The Bills’ defense allowed just 10 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs.

Verdict: I think Kincaid is a fantastic sleeper option this week - he could be a great safety valve for Allen in a game where deep passes likely won’t be encouraged. I’d happily start Kincaid, but stay away from Freiermuth and Knox - they’ll be involved, but not enough to win you a fantasy matchup or win you money.

Other Thoughts

I think this game is going to be very ugly given the weather conditions. I took the Bills 28-17, pulling away late. Given the low-scoring prediction, the turnover-prone Allen and the inexperienced Rudolph, I think both defenses are pretty solid options this week. 

I’d give the Bills’ defense a slight edge because of the home-field advantage and because I think they are the team that eventually prevails.

Kickers in this type of game scare me, so I’d try to avoid both guys.

Tyler Bass was 24-of-29 on his field goals for Buffalo this season, while going 49-of-50 on his extra points. 

Chris Boswell kicks for Pittsburgh. He was 29-of-31 on his field goals and 27-of-28 on extra points.

Seeing the final score, I like Boswell just a touch more than Bass, but again, I’d try to avoid both guys.