2023 Fantasy Football All-Surprise Team: Puka Nacua, Sam LaPorta, Raheem Mostert and More

Breakout surprises are some of the most fun things to witness in sports. A player puts it all together or learns a new skill and becomes an impact player out of nowhere. Maybe all he needed was an opportunity. It often feels like an underdog story.

As a high school basketball coach, I loved when kids would come back after a summer away and seeing how they grew and what they looked like on the court with another year. Unexpected things happen all the time, whether through hard work or the good graces of luck.

Today, I am looking at players who weren’t expected to do a lot in fantasy football circles but far exceeded those supposed limitations to stand out amongst their football brethren. I chose a starting fantasy lineup (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE) of the guys who surprised us most in 2023.

A lot of “draft position versus season performance” comparison was done with the help of our FantasySP draft bust page, a great resource to go back and look at how you did in your draft before making trades and churning your roster. Fantasy points and rankings are from both FantasySP and Fantasy Pros. Unless otherwise noted, all numbers are in PPR format.

 

Quarterback

Candidates: Sam Howell, WAS; C.J. Stroud, HOU

Back in early November, I wrote an article about first-half fantasy performers likely to decline in the second half of the season. Howell was my pick at quarterback because of his schedule. The first half of Washington’s opponents ranked an average of 21st against fantasy QBs at the time of the writing, while the second half was going to improve to 13th.

Sure enough, Howell dropped from QB6 between Weeks 1-9 to QB20 in Weeks 10-18. His average fantasy output went from 18.6 points per game to 13.8. Even with that drop, Howell finished the season as QB13.

Stroud was a revelation as a rookie. We didn’t expect much, as he was undrafted in virtually every fantasy league, but Stroud finished as QB11 despite missing two games. Stroud finished among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks five times in 15 games and was in the top 15 five more times. The Texans are still alive in the playoffs, so fans shouldn’t be too upset about him finishing second for this spot.

Winner: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Stroud could be argued above Purdy, but I want to highlight the second-year passer whose season will probably be forgotten if he doesn’t win the Super Bowl. 

Purdy was the MVP leader by gambling measures late in the season, but a four-interception performance in primetime (while Lamar Jackson excelled) likely dashed his hopes. Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey, and others will be battling for Offensive Player of the Year, and I’m projecting Purdy to miss out on the major awards.

This isn’t an argument about his value in real football: Purdy was a fantasy star, finishing as a top-10 QB in seven of 16 weeks and in the top 15 in four others. He only had four performances outside the top 20 quarterbacks.

Purdy was undrafted or taken in the late rounds of fantasy drafts despite the success we saw after he took over in 2022. That won’t happen again. Purdy is going to be drafted in every league next year, probably around QB6, which is where he finished this season.

 

Running Back

Candidates: David Montgomery, DET; Jerome Ford, CLE; Zack Moss, IND

Moss fell off after an early hot stretch, but he was RB3 between Weeks 2-6, finishing as a top-10 back in four of those five weeks. He didn’t repeat that feat after Week 6 and was in the top 20 only twice in that time. It was a great start for Moss, but opportunity was lost when Jonathan Taylor returned.

Ford’s rise is unfortunate because it coincided with the gnarly season-ending injury to Nick Chubb. I made a bold prediction that Chubb would be RB1, so I believed in Cleveland’s offense. Ford capitalized on an expanded role to finish as RB15. There's a lesson to learn here when looking for handcuffs or backup running backs. Target guys who will play, but also look for backups on good running teams. If the starter sustains an injury, positive production is likely to come from the next man up.

Montgomery is a different type of candidate who didn’t get a break or find himself with extra opportunities. He was signed to lead the Detroit backfield, a very lucrative place in 2022 when Jamaal Williams led the league with 17 touchdowns.

When Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted 12th overall, many assumed Gibbs would take the lion’s share (extra pun intended) while Montgomery slid into a backup role. I said something to the effect of, “The Lions aren’t going to hold back a first-round pick for David Montgomery.”

Well, we were all wrong. Montgomery ran for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns despite missing three full games and much of a fourth. The running back spot in Detroit looks like it will be a very valuable fantasy position for years to come.

Winners: Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins; Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

I thought Cam Akers was a good fantasy pick because LA knew how to run the ball with essentially any back. Akers lost the job after one week, was traded, then got hurt and missed most of the season. My thinking was right, though, in that the Rams would have a productive back. It just happened to be a player no one was talking about.

Williams had 52 rushing yards and two touchdowns while splitting time with Akers in Week 1 and didn’t slow down when he was on the field. He missed four games in the middle of the season and sat out a meaningless Week 18, but Williams was a top-10 back in eight of his 12 weeks and outside the top 20 only twice.

It was staggering consistency, and Williams is a fantasy first-rounder next season.

Mostert never had 800 rushing yards in any of eight seasons before joining Miami last season. He ran for 891 in 2022 but hit a whole other stratosphere this season with 1,012 rushing yards and 21 total touchdowns.

Teammate De’von Achane was great at times, but he missed time with injuries and took a few weeks to get going. Mostert was a consistent force until the last two weeks of the season when he missed his own pair of games.

Mostert was drafted in the late fantasy rounds or undrafted; he finished as RB3. Williams made the jump from unknown to RB6.

 

Wide Receiver

Candidates: Mike Evans, TB; Tank Dell, HOU; Jayden Reed, GB

Reed and Dell are both rookies who went undrafted in fantasy but excelled at times this season. Reed was inconsistent, finishing eight of 16 weeks outside the top 30 fantasy receivers. He came on late, however, totaling eight touchdowns on the season and finishing as a top-25 receiver in seven of his last eight games (while missing Week 16).

Dell went over 100 yards three times and totaled six touchdowns in just 10 full games. He suffered a broken leg in Week 13 and hit IR, cutting short a productive first season. Dell will be a hot mid-round commodity next year.

Evans didn’t surprise himself, only those of us on the outside who doubted him. Moving from the pass-happy Jameis Winston to Tom Brady was a smooth transition, but Evans was seemingly enduring a big drop in QB play when Baker Mayfield took over.

None of it mattered, as his 1,255 yards were the third-most of his career and his 13 touchdowns tied for the league lead. Evans is a free agent who will turn 31 before next season. I would also be hesitant to give a receiver at that age a big contract, but Evans is proving to be one of the most consistent receivers of all time.

Winners: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams; Nico Collins, Houston Texans

This list could begin and end with Nacua. What a season: Puka broke the rookie receiving records for both catches and receiving yards, and every week during the first few months of the season he was setting a new best yardage mark after X number of games. Nacua finished as WR5 this season.

Nacua will be a fantasy WR1 heading into next season. It’s more about what Cooper Kupp can do behind Puka than what the latter can do next to his veteran teammate.

We mentioned Dell breaking out above, but Collins was on the line of drafted/undrafted in many leagues before becoming a near weekly starter. He finished as WR18 and had more receptions, yards and touchdowns than in his first two seasons combined. Collins and Dell will both be top-30 receivers going into next season.

 

Tight End

Candidates: Trey McBride, ARI; Jake Ferguson, DAL

Zach Ertz began the season in Arizona, but he was overtaken in snap-count by McBride. Ertz then hit IR and was released in a mutual decision. McBride is now the top dog for the Cardinals after being drafted in the second round in 2022.

McBride finished as a top-10 tight end after going undrafted in most leagues, which is the same situation for Ferguson. The Cowboys have had a run of good tight ends, from Jason Witten to Dalton Schultz, and it looks like Ferguson is next in line.

While the team looks for compliments to CeeDee Lamb, Ferguson can be a solid second or third option working the middle of the field. He will be drafted as a starter in fantasy next season. Ferguson was TE9 and McBride TE8.

Winner: Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

No one was going to take this spot from LaPorta, though. He broke the “struggling rookie tight end” mold to lead all tight ends in fantasy scoring in both standard and PPR. He led the position with 10 touchdowns while no one else had more than six.

Even if the touchdowns fall back a little, LaPorta has shown himself to be one of the top tight ends in the league after just one season. He was in the top five in receptions and yards and caught a touchdown in the Wild Card round even while hobbled. This is a ready-made fantasy star.