Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook for Commanders | Are Sam Howell, Brian Robinson, Jahan Dotson and Others Long-Term Assets?

The fantasy football regular season has come to an end, but that doesn’t mean dynasty owners have stopped assessing their teams. The best dynasty owners out there are always thinking about the future of their team and how to improve.

Today, we’ll address some offensive players from the Washington Commanders and determine how to approach those players. We covered dynasty outlooks for the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots last week.

Quarterback Outlook

The Commanders went into the season with not too many big expectations, mostly because they were going with Sam Howell as the team’s starter.

Howell ended up starting all 17 games for Washington - even though he was supposed to be benched for the final couple weeks. The team went 4-13 and Howell’s numbers were all over the place.

The second-year player threw for 3,946 yards and 21 touchdowns, but threw 21 interceptions. He added 263 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

Howell failed to reach 200 passing yards in seven games, with most of those coming in the latter half of the season. He topped 300 passing yards on five occasions, but his last 300-yard outing was in late November. Howell failed to throw a touchdown in five games, while having two or more passing scores five times. He only avoided an interception in four games, and he had five games with multiple picks.

Howell still finished as QB12 in fantasy because of his solid start to the season. Things started trending in the wrong direction during a three-interception outing against the New York Giants, and now his future is completely up in the air.

Of course, Howell is on his rookie deal, so he’s a very cheap option for the next couple seasons. With how poorly the team finished, the Commanders will have the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which means they’ll have the chance to select North Carolina’s Drake Maye - assuming that USC's Caleb Williams goes first overall. 

The tough thing for Howell is that Washington is several pieces away from being a contender. He showed enough flashes to earn another season as the starter, but I’m not sure the franchise views him the same. I’d personally trade back, preferably just one spot, and take Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. with the third pick - that would net the Commanders a couple more draft assets to try to build a better team. 

Although I wouldn’t select a quarterback with the second pick, I’d be shocked if the Commanders don’t select a quarterback at some point in the draft.

We might not get a better answer on Howell’s future until draft night, so his dynasty fantasy value is really up in the air at this point.

Running Back Outlook

Three running backs factored in for Washington this season.

Brian Robinson was the top fantasy option, going over 1,000 total yards and scoring nine total times. He is locked into a deal with Washington for the next couple seasons.

Antonio Gibson had over 600 total yards, but just three touchdowns this season. He had the same 4.1-yard rushing average as Robinson. He’s a free agent this offseason.

Chris Rodriguez was starting to make a difference in his rookie season before sitting out the past couple games with an injury. He finished with 259 total yards and two scores. Rodriguez is on his rookie deal and is a very cheap option after being a sixth round pick.

Health was a big issue for the three backs. Of course, the guy who could be gone this offseason (Gibson) played in the most games (16). Robinson played 15 games, while Rodriguez was on the field for 13 games.

With Washington being in a rebuild, it doesn’t make much sense to me to bring Gibson back. Maybe they would if he’s extremely cheap, but I’d guess they roll with Robinson and Rodriguez going into next season, with a third option being a drafted/undrafted guy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fairly even split of the workload between Gibson and Rodriguez as the team tries to determine its best long-term assets.

Pass Catchers Outlook

Several pass catchers enjoyed solid seasons for Washington.

Terry McLaurin led the team with 1,002 receiving yards. He caught 79 of the 130 targets he got and scored four times. He’s tied to Washington for a couple more seasons yet.

Curtis Samuel also scored four times, while finishing with 613 yards on 62 grabs and 91 targets. He also scored a rushing touchdown across seven attempts. He’s an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

Jamison Crowder and Byron Pringle are also free agents for Washington. Crowder had 159 yards and a touchdown this season on 16 catches and 20 targets. Pringle added 161 yards but no scores on 14 catches and 22 targets.

The team’s other top pass catchers are all signed at least for one more season.

Jahan Dotson finished with 518 yards and four touchdowns on 49 catches and 83 targets. Tight end Logan Thomas had 496 yards and four scores on 55 grabs and 79 targets. 

Dyami Brown had 168 yards and one touchdown on 12 catches and 23 targets this season. He’s failed to provide much offense across his three years in the league, but could be more involved if the team doesn’t bring back Crowder or Pringle and doesn’t bring in any other options.

I have a hard time believing the Commanders won’t add at least one more pass-catching option this offseason, and if it is indeed Harrison, that would shift the dynamic of the entire offense. We’ll cover that more after the NFL Draft takes place, but just keep that in mind when thinking about guys like McLaurin, Samuel, Dotson and Thomas. 

Also, if I had to guess, Samuel probably latches on with a new team. The team’s decision with Samuel will probably give us a sneak peek at what the organization plans to do during the draft.

How to Proceed

There are a lot of unknowns when it comes to the Washington offense going into the offseason, the biggest being the quarterback position.

I wouldn’t be comfortable trading for Howell right now. If you are already set at quarterback and looking to stack up some potential other options, now would be the time to try to get him for cheap, but it would have to be very cheap for me to do the deal. 

If I owned Howell, I’d definitely put his name on the trade block and see what kinds of offers you get. If you receive an offer you like, I’d take it over hoping he remains the team’s starting quarterback for the long haul.

Robinson looks like the team’s No. 1 option for next season, but like I mentioned before, I doubt he’d be a true workhorse. He’s dealt with injuries, and Rodriguez looked solid in his time on the field this season. Robinson should get a majority of the touches, but it also wouldn’t shock me to see Rodriguez play a pretty decent role, or the team to draft a back early. 

I’m curious to see where Gibson lands. He had over 1,000 scrimmage yards and combined for 21 total touchdowns in his first two seasons, so a team might bring him in and give him the chance to win the starting job. I don’t think it will be in Washington.

McLaurin is the No. 1 option for the Commanders right now, but that could change before the start of next season. He'll probably see his numbers drop a bit if a guy like Harrison joins the team, but it might also help open some things up for McLaurin. I like the idea of hanging on to McLaurin if you own him, or trying to trade for him if you don't. He shouldn't cost a lot, and he’s capable of being a 1,000-yard receiver every season. Just make sure you don’t overpay, as he isn’t a locked in starter every week.

I think Samuel joins a new team next season. I’d love for him to join an offense with several playmakers already in place. That way, Samuel could be used as a gadget player and possibly unlock a solid fantasy asset most weeks.

Dotson’s season was pretty unspectacular after what he did as a rookie (523 yards, seven touchdowns). He'll likely go into next season as the third or fourth option on the team - if he is indeed retained and not traded. He has some dynasty value still, but isn’t worth a whole lot right now. You can try and acquire him for cheap and then hope he either turns the corner next season, otherwise you’ll likely be dropping him or adding him into a larger deal.

Thomas has been a bit below-average fantasy tight end for most of his career, and now injuries are consistently taking away even more of his value. I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington brings in another TE during the offseason, which would pretty much eliminate the rest of Thomas' dynasty value. He’s a guy I’d try to trade away for scraps, and avoid acquiring.