Changing Fortunes: How the Packers, Bucs and Others Flipped the Script

What were you doing a year ago today? Unless you’re like my mom and write everything down, you probably don’t remember a lot of specifics. Life changes fast; a sad event is superseded by an equally joyous one, and the roller coaster of life goes on.

The NFL isn’t much different. Circumstances change and leave you focusing on different parts of your life; those changing circumstances cause professional sports teams to focus on different areas of the roster.

When Robert Griffin III won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012, the Redskins thought they had quarterback figured out for the next decade. Many would have bet he’d still be leading the team now. Washington’s focus was on building the team around him.

Flash forward two years, and Griffin was struggling with injuries and underwhelming play. Washington pivoted to Kirk Cousins, and RG3 never got another meaningful chance to start.

With that in mind, I have highlighted six teams whose main plot has changed substantially from the preseason. Every team could have been part of this list for one reason or another, but I tried to hit the teams that had franchise-altering changes in how we view them over the past six months based on what happened this season.

Apologies to the Patriots, Giants, Titans and others for just missing the cut.

 

Carolina Panthers

Preseason Narrative: The Panthers have their quarterback and an offensive head coach to help mold him into a franchise passer.

Current Status: The Panthers traded a king’s ransom to take the wrong quarterback.

If Carolina had their own No. 1 overall pick, they would take a new quarterback and trade Bryce Young. We’ll get to the guy they could have had instead, but Young had a disappointing rookie season by any measure.

Young missed one game (Week 3). His 2,877 passing yards in 16 games were less than Justin Herbert, who missed four-and-a-half games. He had only about 500 more yards than Kirk Cousins (played only eight games) and Joe Burrow (10 games). Joshua Dobbs was only 400 yards behind Young.

The team played a huge part in his lack of success. Adam Thielen (33 years old) was his top receiver without many impact guys behind him. Rookie Jonathan Mingo might be good in a few years. D.J. Chark had 1,000 yards once, but it was back in 2019. The skill players at every position were lacking.

The offensive line didn’t help either, as Young took the second-most sacks (62 versus Sam Howell’s 65). No one else had more than 46. Young was not well protected and probably was holding the ball longer as his receivers struggled to get open.

That is understandable, but Young will have to get the ball out faster. He was only pressured at the ninth highest rate, so some of the blame must go to the rookie QB. C.J. Stroud was 14th in pressure rate and put together a far superior first season.

Speaking of Stroud, everyone in Carolina must be mortified right now. The story is far from over on both quarterbacks, but their first year in the league makes it look like the Panthers drafted a bust and the Texans were left with a superstar.

A lot will hinge on the general manager and coach the Panthers bring in. That group will be tasked with building a competent team around Young and developing him into a starting quarterback in a way Frank Reich couldn’t.

 

Green Bay Packers

Preseason Narrative: After decades of Hall-of-Fame quarterback play, the Packers must find a way to win while bringing along an inexperienced passer. They may go into a rebuild.

Current Status: The Packers have their third straight Hall-of-Famer and are set up for a long run of success due to their young impact players on offense.

It’s premature to make that statement: Love had a very good first season as a starter, but he’s not next to names like Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers quite yet. Let’s give him a chance to get his feet wet before holding him to that standard (no matter how impossible it is to ignore).

Love finished the season seventh in passing yards and was near the middle of the pack in yards per attempt. His 32 touchdowns were second to Dak Prescott (36), and while he tied for 10th in most interceptions, his 11 were tied with Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford and less than Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa; it wasn’t a major issue.

What he did in the playoffs is what probably has fans most excited, though. Love was nearly perfect by quarterback rating on the way to 272 yard and three touchdowns on just 21 attempts against the Cowboys.

After taking down the No. 2 seed, the Packers came about as close as they could to upsetting the top-seeded 49ers without actually winning. Love wasn’t nearly as good or efficient against San Fran, but he had the Packers in a position to tie or win the game.

He showed up against two top teams in the playoffs. The entire pass-catching core is in their first or second season, leaving plenty of room for improvement as a whole, but the Pack seem to have had the most important position figured out before it was ever an issue.

 

Houston Texans/Indianapolis Colts/Jacksonville Jaguars

Preseason Narrative: The Jaguars are ascending to contender status and have no one in the division to stand in their way. Trevor Lawrence is on the way to an MVP-level performance.

Current Status: Jacksonville might be the third best team in their own division. Houston and Indianapolis are set up for long-term success with young quarterbacks of their own.

We can group these three together because their fortunes are tied to each other. They also, conveniently, fall in alphabetical order.

The narrative will change again by the end of next season. Nothing is static in the NFL. Either the Texans or Colts will likely take a step back after big jumps in wins (Texans from three to 10 wins, Colts from four to nine).

The perception of the Jaguars will probably be too low heading into next season based on what we saw over the second half. With an 8-3 record and a chance to fight for the top seed, they lost five of their last six games to miss the playoffs.

Indianapolis spent most of the season without fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson after he was lost to injury during Week 5. That hurts his development, but it probably helped the Colts’ chances of winning this year.

Richardson came into the league with sky-high potential. Due to a lack of experience, though, many thought he would need a year to work on his game. Indy threw him in to start the season, and while he made a few incredible plays and was a fantasy asset, he was still a raw rookie.

Gardner Minshew took over and put together a respectable season on the way to nine wins. Minshew tops out as a low-end starter/high-end backup but has proven on multiple teams that he can hold down the position when called upon.

Houston is the shining star here, making the jump from second overall pick to a division championship. Stroud is a star and the key to the future. It looks like they hired the right coach in DeMeco Ryans. This team is far from perfect, though, and relying on Stroud to carry the load every season isn’t a sound strategy.

This will be one of the most fun divisions in football next season. A lot will likely depend on how these teams protect their QBs and the weapons they bring in. All three currently have a ceiling as dark horse Super Bowl contenders and a floor near the bottom of the league.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Preseason Narrative: This team is ready to start over. The Tom Brady years were great, but the cap is in shambles, and they signed Baker Mayfield to a contract worth less than $7 million total to lead a lost season. The team should trade Mike Evans and any other veteran not nailed down.

Current Status: Mike Evans should be nailed down, apparently. This team was a few plays from the Conference Championship Game and needs to run it back. Sign Baker to a long-term contract, bring back Evans, and let the GM find ways to continue adding talent.

What do we make of the Bucs? They had to beat Carolina 9-0 in Week 18 just to make the playoffs and felt like the weakest team in the NFC playoff field. They were below average this season by total DVOA and offensive DVOA, while exactly league average on both defense and special teams by the same measure.

A loss in the first round likely would have meant a reset of sorts, maybe with a new quarterback and without their superstar receiver. A 32-9 Wild Card beatdown of the Eagles with Mayfield totaling 337 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions changed the public perception.

Mayfield added 349 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in the 31-23 loss to the Lions this weekend, showing up huge in two games on the biggest stage. There is a bigger discussion to have around Baker, but he has made himself a lot of money over the last two weeks.

Evans gained over 1,000 yards for the 10th straight season and tied for the lead league in touchdown receptions (13). It was natural to expect a decrease in production as he reached 30 years old and was likely to have worse quarterback play going from Tom Brady to Mayfield, but Evans had one of his best seasons in 2023.

Given Evans’ history with the Bucs, I have to assume they will find a way to keep him. Mayfield will be a hot candidate for a free agent contract somewhere, so Tampa might lock him up before anyone gets a chance. An extension and the franchise tag are both on the table.

Tampa isn’t quite a contender, but they’re not that far off, especially compared to how we valued them before the season.