NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Best Bets: Can Dallas Turner, Laiatu Latu Live Up to Expectations?

Fourteen offensive players were taken in the 2024 NFL Draft before the first defensive guy, Laiatu Latu, came off the board. Part of that was a run of six quarterbacks in the first 12 picks, but three receivers, a tight end and four offensive linemen also went before Latu.

It’s an offensive league, but the defense is still close to half of the game. (Special teams are like the green spots on the roulette table aren’t they; black and red are pretty much 50/50 but they’re not QUITE half the equation. Those pesky green spaces and special teams just get in the way.)

Yesterday, I looked at the listed odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year and identified some of my favorite value bets. The Defensive ROY scene is the same but different. A group of players at different positions are still fighting for a single award; while everyone on offense is looking for the same thing, though (yards and points), each defensive player can provide value differently.

Some guys will get attention for stuffing the stat sheet and/or reaching a big number in one statistic. Others will stand out by staying out of the box score: cornerbacks are benefiting as much as anyone from the popularity of advanced stats as their true value can be captured if they shut down half the field and quarterbacks never throw their way.

Here, I went through each position group and identified my favorite pick(s), and you will see my ultimate best bets at the end. Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of June 5.

You can find my other previews at the following links: AFC Division Champions, NFC Division Champions, AFC Conference Champion, NFC Conference Champion

Recent Winners

The list of previous DROY winners includes a mix of positions over the last few decades:

Position	Winners in the Last 10 Years	Winners in the Last 20 Years
Pass Rusher	5	7
Defensive Tackle	1	3
Linebacker	1	7
Cornerback	3	3

Pass rushers and linebackers have won most often, matching what I said above: Stuffing the stat sheet and/or hitting a big number is the best way to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Each pass rusher and linebacker who walk away with the award did one or both of those things, with sacks most prevalent for the linemen and total tackles often standing out for linebackers.

Only one linebacker won the award during the last 10 years after six guys at the position did the previous decade. Part of that is advanced stats again. Linebackers almost always collect the most tackles because of the nature of their position, but we are now noticing their ability to defend the pass and create turnovers more than raw tackles.

That doesn’t mean the position can’t win, as you’ll see below, but it’s no longer a matter of collecting assisted tackles on the way to an award. (All that said, the list of middle linebackers who won includes Brian Urlacher, Patrick Willis and Luke Kuechly; it wasn’t just guys falling into tackles.)

Pass Rushers

• Minnesota Vikings Dallas Turner +430
• Indianapolis Colts Laiatu Latu +500
• Los Angeles Rams Jared Verse +1200
• Miami Dolphins Chop Robinson +1600
• Arizona Cardinals Darius Robinson +3000

There’s one clear way for these guys to win the award: collect sacks. No one will care about their run-stopping ability or win percentage on pass rush attempts; even as advanced stats become more accepted, players who win Rookie of the Year often get big counting numbers, and none is more impactful for a lineman than sacks.

Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Micah Parsons and Will Anderson won four of the last five awards with an average of more than nine sacks in their rookie season. If a pass rusher wins again in 2024, he will likely at least reach that same level near double digits.

More opportunity usually means more numbers, so value lies with the players who will be on the field most. Injuries, both to the player and his teammates, often play a large role, meaning it can be almost impossible to know who will get those chances.

Turner and Latu will probably get plenty of opportunities, but their odds are way too short for me to consider either bet. All it takes in one wrong turn of an ankle and your bet is up in smoke; small returns aren’t worth it when SO much can go wrong.

Chop Robinson has two veterans in front of him on the Miami roster, but both Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are returning from major knee injuries that cost them the end of 2023. With both players likely to be eased into the rotation, Robinson will play a lot of reps in training camp and the preseason. He didn’t put up much production in college, but scouts loved his tools; Robinson is a player who will likely take a few years to develop and not someone who will bust out as a rookie.

Verse was projected as a first-round pick in 2022 but went back to school and was part of the dominant Florida State defense. Many say Verse is ready to play immediately but also has big upside to become a perennial Pro Bowler.

Aaron Donald’s retirement means LA will need multiple people to step up, and Verse will have a role from Week 1 with a chance to be on the field as often as any lineman listed here. The number is too low for me to really love the bet, but it might be the most likely outcome from this group.

Best Bet – Darius Robinson

Robinson was often described as a player with a high floor but limited ceiling. He is ready to contribute, analysts predicted, and be a fixture for a long time. He may never reach 15 sacks, but Robinson could be a 10-sack-per-year player starting right away.

Though Arizona has numbers on the defensive line, they lack high-level talent. Robinson will likely rotate in and out of the lineup, but there’s no reason for the team to limit his snaps; no other player on their defense has more upside.

Due to his likely opportunity and the best return, Robinson is my favorite Defensive Rookie of the Year bet of the pass rushers.

Defensive Tackles

• Seattle Seahawks Byron Murphy +1400
• Los Angeles Rams Braden Fiske +3000
• Washington Commanders Jer'Zhan Newton +3500

Like pass rushers, D-tackles can stand out most by taking down the quarterback. Our three recent examples who won are Donald, Sheldon Richardson and Ndamukong Suh. Donald and Suh had nine and 10 sacks, respectively, as rookies; that’s the best way for any of the three listed above to take home this award.

Richardson is a different case, however. He had only 3.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss (Donald had 18, Suh 13). His 78 total tackles were 30 more than Donald had and 12 more than Suh, but Richardson wasn’t nearly as impactful as either of his defensive tackle brethren.

Richardson won because it was a weak year. Bills linebacker Kiko Alonso came in a close second and should have won: He had 159 tackles, two sacks, 11 tackles for loss, four interceptions, four passes defended, a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries. That’s the kind of counting-stat season that wins this award. The Jets were two games better than the Bills, but there’s no way in retrospect that Richardson should have beat out Alonso.

Murphy was seen by some as an unquestioned top-10 talent who slid due to the run of offensive players. His ROY chances are hindered by his team, though, as the Seahawks have a stacked defensive line that will probably relegate Murphy to a rotational role, even if he starts.

Newton has the same problem of a glut of players at his position, but unlike Murphy, he is not potentially the best player of the group in 2024. Washington’s defensive backfield turned into a mess, but the interior defensive line is stocked with high-priced players. Newton might be a star one day, but he won’t be able to fully reach that level this year.

Best Bet – Braden Fiske

Fiske joins Verse in trying to replace Donald. I like Verse’s chances of accumulating stats better, and these two could steal votes from each other if the defense is dominant. Even replicating Donald’s play, though, is a story that would stand out; a good story sometimes means as much to voters as the actual play on the field.

It’s a wager I don’t love, but Fiske’s likely opportunity combined with the nice financial return makes him my favorite DROY bet among the defensive tackles.

Linebackers

• Green Bay Packers Edgerrin Cooper +3000
• Los Angeles Chargers Junior Colson +4000

Linebackers can often reach big counting numbers easier than any other defensive position. I mentioned Alonso’s 2013 line above, highlighted by nearly 160 tackles. Shaq Leonard and Kuechly each topped 160 in their rookie seasons, while Willis hit 174. It will take a season with a number higher than 150 and/or a handful of takeaways to put one of these guys in the award catbird seat.

No linebacker was seen as a first-round talent in this draft; accordingly, Cooper was the first one off the board at 45th overall. There was a common pre-draft connection between he and the Packers given their need at middle linebacker. The team agreed, taking Cooper with the intention of plugging him into the starting lineup.

Colson follows coach Jim Harbaugh from Michigan to Los Angeles, meaning he’ll be spending his fourth year in the Harbaugh system. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to find instant success, but his transition to the pros will likely be a little easier, and the coach surely has a special interest in wanting him to succeed, so Colson should get on the field plenty.

Best Bet – Junior Colson

It’s a 50/50 toss up on who I think is more likely to win the award between these two. Because of that, I’ll go with the guy giving the better return on investment and say Colson is my favorite Defensive Rookie of the Year pick among the true linebackers.

Cornerbacks

• Philadelphia Eagles Quinyon Mitchell +1200
• Detroit Lions Terrion Arnold +1200
• Philadelphia Eagles Cooper DeJean +2500
• Washington Commanders Mike Sainristil +3000
• Baltimore Ravens Nate Wiggins +3000
• New Orleans Saints Kool-Aid McKinstry +3500

A lot of names and possibilities here. Let’s start with the corners who have won this award recently:

• Sauce Gardner, 2022: 75 tackles, 2 interceptions, 20 passes defended
• Marshon Lattimore, 2017: 52 tackles, 5 interceptions (1 returned for touchdown), 18 passes defended, 1 forced fumble, 1 recovered fumble
• Marcus Peters, 2015: 60 tackles, 8 interceptions (2 returned for touchdowns), 26 passes defended, 1 forced fumble

Peters and Lattimore stuffed the stat sheet while each taking the ball away at least six times apiece. Not much more needs to be explained, as they were first-round picks who did what they were supposed to.

The way we view statistics changed a lot in the five years between Lattimore and Gardner winning the award. Gardner didn’t have to compete for the lead in interceptions to gain attention because advanced stats showed just how great he was in his first season. This should be encouraging for cornerbacks this year and into the future.

Interceptions are often random. It takes the skill to be able to catch the ball, but “right place at the right time” explains more interceptions than great individual feats. The best corners also lack opportunities for picks because quarterbacks avoid them: receivers who aren’t open don’t get the ball thrown their way often.

Any of the guys listed here could go on a hot streak of taking the ball away and cruise to the award. A better bet is looking for the guy who could best replicate Gardner’s season of dominant coverage play to win over the advanced stats.

Mitchell was a standout in college at Toledo, choosing to stay at the mid-major his whole college career rather than transfer to a big school. He dominated at the Senior Bowl and had a great showing at the combine, putting to rest concerns that he only shined because of the weak competition.

Arnold starred at Alabama facing the best competition in the country. Nothing between the end of the season and the draft showed any reason for concern, and Arnold ended up with a suddenly imposing defense in Detroit. 

Mitchell and Arnold are the most likely to replicate what Gardner did; that’s why they have the shortest odds, lowering the value on their bets. They don’t have as low of a return as the top pass rushers, but the odds on both of these guys is just a little too small to be my favorite.

Best Bet – Cooper DeJean

Without great value on a guy who could conceivably be a shutdown corner as a rookie, I’ll go with the most versatile player of the group. DeJean has played outside corner, slot corner and safety, allowing his defensive coordinator to be creative in his use.

DeJean will probably play a lot of snaps at different positions and stack the stat sheet the way Lattimore and Peters did. A season with 80 tackles, three interceptions, two sacks, a forced fumble and maybe a touchdown isn’t an outrageous projection, and that line could win the award if no one stands out.

Safeties

Just two safeties have won this award: Erik McMillan in 1988 and Mark Carrier in 1990. I’m not holding out hope for our first winner in over 30 years. The safety position would seem to allow players to rack up stats, as they often play in coverage to get interceptions and against the run to accumulate tackles.

That hasn’t worked out, probably because safeties are the last line of defense and often blamed for long touchdown passes. Defensive backs tend to take time to adapt to the league; safeties stand out when they get beat in space. Teams surely feel better with veterans in place, also.

DeJean might play a lot of safety, which gives the position one high-ranked player by odds. Otherwise, Tyler Nubin of the Giants leads the position at +5000 with a few others not too far behind him, including Houston’s Calen Bullock (+6000) and the Rams’ Kamren Kinchens (+7500).

Ultimate Best Bets

• Darius Robinson +3000
• Edgerrin Cooper +3000
• Junior Colson +4000

Edge rushers have won four of the last five Defensive Rookie of the Year awards, so a player with both long odds and the opportunity to play a lot of snaps, like Robinson, is intriguing. A few guys have clearer paths to production, but Robinson’s value is the best pass rushing bet.

Linebackers and pass rushers share the lead with seven Rookie of the Year awards over the last 20 years. The linebackers are heavy on the early side of that time frame, but their ability to accumulate stats catches the attention of voters, garnering support for awards.

Cooper was a higher-ranked prospect and more likely to excel, but Colson is playing in a familiar system and has a payout 33.3% higher than a bet on Cooper. All three of these wagers have some value, and I’ll rank them Colson, Cooper, Robinson.