NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Best Bets: Where do Marvin Harrison Jr., Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and More Stand?
A look at the betting odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year and players who currently have value.
Betting never stops. Sportsbooks make money every day that gambling takes place, so there will always be something to wager on. With no NFL games until August and no games that count until September, I’m looking at some of the future bets to try to identify value (or at least my favorite bet).
You can find my other previews at the following links: AFC Division Champions, NFC Division Champions, AFC Conference Champion, NFC Conference Champion
Let’s move to some of the individual awards, starting with the first-year players. It’s an offensive league, as the stats and scoring continue to prove, and rookies are entering the league ready to play rather than needing time to develop into contributors.
The players included are the guys at each offensive position who are listed with a realistic chance of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. There are lottery tickets you can throw money at in hopes that they break out as rookies, but the line must be drawn somewhere. The players listed seem like the ones who would win this award 99 times out of 100.
I’ll pick my favorite bet(s) at each position and then give the ultimate best bets at the end for the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year. Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of June 5.
Recent Winners
Every winner of this award has been a quarterback, running back or wide receiver. Over the past 20 years, there have been 10 QBs, six backs and four receivers that have taken home the honor. The last 10 winners were almost evenly split, with four quarterbacks and three each at running back and receiver.
Though I will mention one tight end and a handful of offensive linemen, the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year will come from the other group. That’s a great first rule if you are going to make one of these wagers: don’t waste your money on a bet that can’t win, such as an O-line winner.
Quarterbacks
- Chicago Bears Caleb Williams +155
- Washington Commanders Jayden Daniels +600
- Minnesota Vikings J.J. McCarthy +1000
- New England Patriots Drake Maye +2000
- Denver Broncos Bo Nix +2000
- Atlanta Falcons Michael Penix Jr. +7500
- New Orleans Saints Spencer Rattler +10000
Quarterbacks are often most likely to win this award, especially in such a top-heavy class. One of these guys will probably walk away as OROY, and that’s why they have the lowest odds.
With injuries, rookie learning curves and questionable situations, expecting any rookie to step in as an immediate star is a losing proposition. Taking someone with short odds, like Williams or Daniels, just doesn’t present the value needed for this bet. I’ll include McCarthy there, too.
The story for Maye and Nix would revolve around taking a team with a major lack of talent to the playoffs while standing out. It’s too unlikely for me because these rosters don’t offer the impact talent needed to really carry a team while the quarterback adapts, especially Denver.
Penix and Rattler also have a clear outline: The starter in front of them gets injured early and they step in and guide their team to the NFC South title, becoming the new face of the franchise in the process. It’s more likely for Penix because Atlanta has high-level talent across the offense that can make plays to help boost his numbers.
Best Bet – Drake Maye, New England Patriots
New England at least put acceptable NFL talent around Maye, even though there’s nothing close to a star. The Jets are relying on old, injured players, while both the Bills and Dolphins watched a lot of talented guys walk out the door over the last few offseasons without much proven talent filling those holes.
The Pats could get lucky, go on a run, and win the AFC East, which would put Maye squarely in the catbird seat, much like Houston’s C.J. Stroud last season. I don’t like this bet, but it’s my favorite among the quarterbacks.
Running Backs
- Carolina Panthers Jonathon Brooks +5000
- Los Angeles Rams Blake Corum +5000
- Miami Dolphins Jaylen Wright +5000
- Arizona Cardinals Trey Benson +7500
- San Francisco 49ers Isaac Guerendo +10000
- Buffalo Bills Ray Davis +15000
- Denver Broncos Audric Estime +15000
- Las Vegas Raiders Dylan Laube +20000
Some of these numbers are decent considering running backs usually touch the ball more than anyone other than the QB. The path to a starter’s workload is the most important thing I’m looking for. Anyone can be thrust into the spotlight by injuries, but which players are most likely to see the field often?
Wright, Guerendo, Davis, Estime and Laube are all in clear backup roles that would take one or more injuries to get them into the spotlight. The odds are right, but choosing the correct lucky lottery ticket is too hard at this point.
Benson and Corum are both likely in RB2 roles behind players with past success. Kyren Williams broke out last year with 1,350 total yards and 15 touchdowns, but he also missed five games with injury. Corum would be in line to possibly take a starter's workload if Williams were to go down again, and the Rams have proven they can successfully run the ball with a variety of backs.
Benson is on an Arizona team likely below the playoff level and with a veteran back in James Conner leading the way. Conner ran for 1,000 yards for the first time in 2023 and averaged a career-high 5 yards per carry. He’s in the last year of his contract, though, and will turn 30 before the 2025 season. As the season goes on, Benson will probably take on more of the workload.
Best Bet – Jonathon Brooks
While Brooks joins a team with two veterans in Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, there might not be as much resistance to the starting job as it seems. Sanders signed a big contract last offseason and instantly became one of the worst backs in the league. Hubbard has been OK, but he hasn’t averaged 4 yards per carry in any season in which he had at least 100 carries.
Brooks was the first back drafted for a reason. While there was no one who had a first-round grade at the position, Brooks was brought down by a torn ACL suffered in November more than his actual skill level. Returning from an injury means there is plenty of risk, and the team doesn’t have any reason to rush him back, but they also have no reason to keep handcuffs on him once he’s 100%.
Brooks caught 25 passes for 286 yards in 2023, showing the pass-catching ability to get on the field early and often. The Panthers can plug him in as the starting back and design plays specifically for Brooks to get the ball in space on screens and quick routes.
Wide Receivers
- Marvin Harrison Jr. +700
- Malik Nabers +1400
- Xavier Worthy +2000
- Keon Coleman +2600
- Rome Odunze +3000
- Ladd McConkey +3000
- Brian Thomas Jr. +3000
- Adonai Mitchell +5000
- Ricky Pearsall +6000
- Jermaine Burton +7500
- Ja'Lynn Polk +7500
- Xavier Legette +7500
- Javon Baker +10000
- Malachi Corley +10000
- Troy Franklin +10000
It’s hard to know where to draw the line because you can make a conceivable argument for so many guys. Like with the running backs, the best players to find are the ones who have a clear path to their team’s WR1 spot. That means teams without an established star.
Worthy, Odunze, Mitchell, Pearsall, Burton, Legette and Corley all have true No. 1 options in front of them in the pecking order (Travis Kelce being that player for Worthy). Coleman and Thomas are close depending on how you feel about Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo and Evan Engram and Christian Kirk in Jacksonville. It’s enough to make me pass on each of them.
Polk and Baker are both on the Patriots and playing with a rookie quarterback. Unless one of these guys truly dominates, the praise is going to go to Maye, making it very unlikely either receiver makes a real run. Franklin gets eliminated for the same reason given Nix may start in Denver.
We’re left with Harrison, Nabers and McConkey. Harrison’s odds are too short; it only takes a three-week injury to torpedo a guy’s chances, so we need a real return.
Nabers is right on the line at +1400. I can understand both those who say the odds are too short and those who will jump at double the return of Harrison. It’s a little too close to call him my best bet, so I will eliminate Nabers as well.
Best Bet – Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
McConkey steps into a situation in which he might be WR1 in Week 1. The Chargers lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the offseason, and 2023 first-round pick Quentin Johnston was anonymous last season. There’s not a lot of competition.
With a top-line quarterback throwing to him and potentially one of the best offensive lines giving them time to work, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see McConkey’s name show up early and often in the box score.
Tight Ends
- Las Vegas Raiders Brock Bowers +4000
This is the list. No other tight end in the draft was seen as an immediate high-level contributor. After Bowers at 13, the next tight end picked was Ben Sinnott (+20000) 53rd overall; the only other guy selected before the end of the third round was Tip Reiman (+30000) at 82.
The argument for Bowers starts around him being more than a tight end. The way Kelce acts as the de facto WR1 for the Chiefs, Bowers would have to make the impact of a wide receiver to win this award.
The presence of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Michael Mayer (a second-round tight end picked last year) makes it unlikely Bowers will be able to absorb that kind of target share, meaning he won’t contend for OROY unless he goes on a touchdown binge.
Offensive Linemen
- Los Angeles Chargers Joe Alt +20000
- New York Jets Olu Fashanu +30000
- Cincinnati Bengals Amarius Mims +30000
- New Orleans Saints Taliese Fuaga +30000
- Tennessee Titans JC Latham +30000
- Seattle Seahawks Troy Fautanu +30000
There is no true best bet here. An offensive lineman isn’t going to win this award in such an offense-friendly league. There’s always going to be a running back and/or receiver topping 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns.
What would it take for the impossible to happen, though?
The player has to be on a winning team with a top-10 offense
This eliminates Alt and Latham. The Titans retooled in the offseason and have a competitive roster, especially given how things looked at the end of 2023. Quarterback Will Levis will have to play at a high level for them to make a leap to the top 10, though, and this team probably isn’t good enough to get Latham the attention he would need.
Alt has a better chance of being on a great team with quarterback Justin Herbert and head coach Jim Harbaugh in place. The wide receiver room was gutted, as I mentioned above, and there are holes on the roster that will probably stop the Chargers from competing for the division, which it would probably take to get Alt any real buzz.
He has to be the best player on his own offensive line
Check Mims off the list. He was seen as one of the rawest prospects in the early rounds, holding high potential but a long road to production in 2024. The Bengals also have a few high-level offensive linemen, so he would probably need left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to go down with an injury early while Mims takes over and dominates.
He would likely have to see his team’s offense make a big jump from 2023 that can be attributed partly to his arrival
Fautanu could be the best lineman on the Steelers this season, but they will likely have three rookie starting linemen to begin the year. A major improvement would be attributed to the overhaul of the line rather than one guy.
Fashanu might be a good bet by these criteria, but again, a big increase in offensive performance for the Jets would shine a light on Aaron Rodgers and the big names on the offense.
Best Bet? – Taliese Fuaga
So, that leaves Fuaga, possibly the Saints’ new left tackle. New Orleans was near the middle of the league in total yards, passing yards and rushing yards (to a lesser extent), and they scored the ninth-most points per game. If the team is again in the top 10 in scoring and makes a big jump in rushing, Fuaga could have a path to Offensive Rookie of the Year (but probably not).
Ultimate Best Bets
- Ladd McConkey +3000
- Jonathon Brooks +5000
The quarterbacks most likely to win the award have odds way too short to hold much value. I don’t believe in those with better returns and feel the QBs should be skipped this year. Bowers and the offensive linemen have a big uphill climb to even contend.
So, I’ll go with my best bet at both running back and wide receiver as my favorite bets for Offensive Rookie of the Year. They both have clear paths toward the top of their respective positions and the ability to rack up yards, even if they are empty stats on non-contending teams.
(I don’t like either bet enough to actually make the wager, but they are the two that stand out to me as having the best value.)