Fantasy Football Expectations for Second-Year Wide Receivers: Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice and More

The NFL season is coming. Training camps are underway, the Hall of Fame game is on August 1, and the first game of the regular season is six weeks from today. I don’t know if you’re excited, but I’m excited.

In preparation for the start of the fantasy season, there are enough rankings, sleeper picks, and mock drafts to last the whole year. Inevitably, there will still be multiple players who are off everyone’s radar who step up and help win fantasy championships.

Every rookie has the potential to be a part of the offense if things break right. Even fifth-round picks, like Puka Nacua, might be superstars. Then the games start, and we remember that it takes players time to adapt to the NFL, whether that means adding/dropping weight, learning more complicated schemes, or just getting better with practice reps.

I am looking at the players drafted last year at each fantasy football position (quarterback, running back) and focusing on their expectations this year versus their rookie season. Sometimes, that means a bigger role; others see their previously high hopes deflated after struggling during their first season.

Wide receiver has become one of the most important positions on the football field, rising in salary and draft status while running backs are watching things turn the opposite direction. Receivers are also often expected to contribute right away when taken near the top of the draft.

Last year’s group had a few (relative) disappointments who have almost fallen off the fantasy radar; there is a chance for one or more players to reach their rookie hype with a year of experience and bigger roles.

Players are listed in the order that they were drafted and with the team that took them.

First Round

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

JSN had a huge sophomore year in college in 2021 but missed essentially all his junior season with injury before entering the draft. With only one productive year, Smith-Njigba was still seen as a possible WR1 due to his season of dominance (95 receptions, 1,606 yards, nine touchdowns).

His rookie season was underwhelming by those standards: 63 receptions, 628 yards, and four touchdowns. He was third on the team in each category behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

The presence of those two might be the biggest thing that kept Smith-Njigba from a bigger season, as the veterans allowed the team to bring the rookie along slowly and pick his spots. Lockett will turn 32 early in the season, and it’s likely JSN will overtake the WR2 spot by season’s end.

Smith-Njigba is ranked near the 40th receiver in many fantasy rankings. An expanded role with his extreme talent gives him a chance of reaching the top 20 WR scorers if he gets involved early.

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

There might not have been a more disappointing rookie than Johnston last year. Coming off a huge college season and a run to the FBS championship game, Johnston was drafted onto a team with two high-level receivers and a chance to take the third spot. It was essentially the same role Smith-Njigba had in Seattle.

Johnston didn’t get on the field much, though, and caught just 38 passes for 431 yards and two touchdowns. Keenan Allen was traded to the Bears and Mike Williams went to the Jets in free agency, so there are plenty of snaps to be played, and the second-year receiver would seem like a prime candidate.

D.J. Chark was signed in free agency, and Georgia’s Ladd McConkey was drafted 34th overall. Joshua Palmer (another breakout candidate entering his fourth season) will likely start on one side. Johnston has the opportunity to play a lot of snaps and catch passes from one of the best throwers of the football in Justin Herbert. If he is going to be a good NFL receiver, this is the season to start showing it.

I like Johnston as a late-round flier, though he isn’t being drafted in many leagues. The chance for a first-round talent to finally get on the field after a year adapting to the big leagues has breakout potential written all over it (though that’s far from a guarantee).

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

Flowers immediately became Lamar Jackson’s go-to receiver. He led the team in receptions (77) and receiving yards (858) and no one was even close. Mark Andrews will always be a big part of the passing game when healthy, but no other pass catcher on Baltimore is close to Flowers’ level as a fantasy player (or real-life receiver).

Flowers has a chance to finish in the top 20 at the position; he’s generally ranked around the 20-30 range among receivers. The Ravens will always be a run-first offense with Lamar Jackson under center, but Flowers will get the ball on screens and can use his speed to take advantage of play action on deep throws.

I like him at the range in which he’s being drafted. Some of the guys in the same range are Cooper Kupp, Brian Thomas Jr., Calvin Ridley and Tee Higgins. I’m not sure who I would take from that group if I were on the clock right now, but Flowers would probably only be behind Higgins (maybe).

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

I expected preseason buzz on Addison to be better after he racked up 911 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. I understand the negatives: Kirk Cousins left town, replaced by the combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy, and Justin Jefferson is back to hog targets after missing much of last season.

Many expect the Vikings to become more of a running team due to the change at quarterback, but I’m skeptical. Coach Kevin O’Connell took over before the 2022 season. In his two years, the Vikings threw the third-most passes (2022) and were only five attempts shy of throwing the most (2023). Even after Cousins was hurt last year, Minnesota still slung the ball around the field.

The Vikes have better players in the pass game, too. Jefferson, Addison, T.J. Hockenson when he returns from injury; the top running backs are the aged Aaron Jones and former fifth-round pick Ty Chandler. I see Minnesota stretching out their quarterbacks and continuing to pass the ball rather than completely changing the offense.

Second Round

Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers

Mingo is a big-bodied receiver who had a chance to stand out on a Carolina team devoid of talent. He had just 43 receptions for 418 yards; a better second season wouldn’t be a shock.

The team added two receivers who slot in above him on the depth chart, though, first trading for Pittsburgh's Diontae Johnson then drafting Xavier Legette out of South Carolina with the last pick of the first round. Mingo won’t be taken in fantasy drafts and will have to work his way into a regular role.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Reed is part of the youngest pass catching corps in the league, joining fellow second rounder Christian Watson and more late-round picks to form the supporting cast for Jordan Love. Reed might be the best of the group, though, as his 793 yards as a rookie were more than any other current Packers’ receiver has had in a season.

Watson was a popular pick to break out last year; that is now Reed’s spot. With so much youth, anyone could take a leap forward without much surprise. Reed might be the highest drafted Green Bay receiver in fantasy leagues, and it is deserved in the middle rounds.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

Rice’s main concern from a fantasy perspective is the chance he could miss multiple games due to suspension. He became the best receiver on the Chiefs as a rookie, playing a big role in the team winning the Super Bowl. Rice will be making an impact again, even with upgrades at receiver around him.

If he is suspended for at least a few games, his fantasy value will drop. Rice is currently ranked near 30th among receivers, and if he were to fall into the 40s or even 50s, Rice would present great value and will likely be back by the time bye weeks start.

Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos

Denver has shed talent over multiple offseasons, now attempting to recover as they feel the final blows of the Russell Wilson trade. That leaves a chance for Mims to get on the field and show his speed, the main aspect of his game.

Courtland Sutton is a good second receiver. Josh Reynolds was signed from Detroit and is nothing more than a complementary player. Mims will have a starting role and a chance to go deep in a Sean Payton offense. He averaged 17.1 yards per reception last season and could likely stay close to that number, even if it does fall with a bigger sample.

Mims is seen as a late-round flier, and that seems right. The Broncos might be a mess again as they sort through the quarterback position, and chances are Mims shows flashes while being inconsistent.

Third Round

Tank Dell, Houston Texans

Dell was thought of as more of a gadget player coming out of college, but he burst onto the scene along with his rookie quarterback, racking up 709 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in just 11 games.

He missed the other games after breaking his leg but should be ready to go when the season starts. His biggest issue might be the fight for targets, as Nico Collins broke out as a star last season and the team traded for Stefon Diggs this offseason. Even if his targets are cut a little, Dell will get the ball on screens and handoffs, giving him more chances at production.

Dell is a good mid-round fantasy pick. He won’t be the top guy on his team, but he can be at least a WR3/streamer most weeks, especially with his young star quarterback.

Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants

Hyatt is working behind other guys on the depth chart, most notably sixth overall pick Malik Nabers. The guys around him often alternate between being injured and ineffective, so Hyatt will likely see an expanded role in his second season.

Hyatt is off the fantasy radar, though, failing to provide the explosive upside of someone like Mims.

Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns

Tillman is another big body who was thought to need time to develop. He is buried on the depth chart behind guys like Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

Downs is in line for a starting role along with rookie Adonai Mitchell and top receiver Michael Pittman. Quarterback Anthony Richardson missed most of his rookie season and will step into a decent situation with talented players around him, albeit no top-tier star (Pittman and running back Jonathan Taylor might have something to say about that).

With so many pieces and Richardson likely to handle a lot of carries himself, there’s probably not enough to make Downs a usual fantasy starter. He will be in the streamer mix on the right weeks.

Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals

Wilson looks firmly locked into the WR2 spot after the team drafted generational receiver prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. Tight end Trey McBride is an ascending player, but no other pass catcher on the Cardinals is likely to take many targets away from Wilson.

Kyler Murray is back and has a full training camp and preseason to work with his young receivers and could find early success. Wilson is in the streamer conversation and will probably be worthy of a WR3/4 spot on the right weeks.

Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders

Tucker is more of a slot/gadget player who also returns kicks. Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer might all be above him in the passing pecking order on a team with an unsettled quarterback situation. Tucker isn’t on the fantasy radar, but he might make a few fun plays this year.

Fourth Round

• Derius Davis, Los Angeles Chargers
• Charlie Jones, Cincinnati Bengals
• Tyler Scott, Chicago Bears

All three guys here are behind numerous players on the depth chart and would need a lot to happen to grab a big role. Jones and Scott are buried behind stars. Davis is part of the new-look Chargers’ wide receiver room, and he could find a role among all the shuffling, but he probably won’t be a starter and isn’t on the fantasy radar right now.

Fifth Round

• Justin Shorter, Buffalo Bills
• Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers
• Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

While his fellow fifth rounders were excelling as rookies, Shorter didn’t appear in a game and is buried on Buffalo’s depth chart.

I talked about Green Bay’s young group of pas catchers above, and Wicks is part of the rotation. He gained 581 yards on 39 receptions as a rookie, showing promise as a future contributor. He is only at streamer status, but Wicks is a guy to keep an eye on.

And then there’s Nacua. Not much needs to be said; he broke all kinds of rookie receiving records and is now a top-10 fantasy receiver. In PPR leagues especially, Nacua seems like a safe bet to produce like a WR1.

Sixth Round

• Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars
• Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots
• Trey Palmer, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• A.T. Perry, New Orleans Saints
• Elijah Higgins, Miami Dolphins
• Xavier Hutchinson, Houston Texans
• Andrei Iosivas, Cincinnati Bengals
• Demario Douglas, New England Patriots

Most of the names here are depth chart fillers and players likely to play just small roles. Palmer and Douglas are the guys who stand out with a chance to have real production as early as Week 1.

Despite being a sixth-round pick, Palmer slid into Tampa’s WR3 role behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He had just 39 catches for 385 yards, but Palmer will get on the field. He’s a name to watch, not someone to consider drafting.

Douglas has a similar story, maybe relegated to just a slot/gadget role. He is listed at just 5’8 and 192 pounds, so it wouldn’t be surprising if that was his career role. Douglas also isn’t a player to consider drafting but one who can be observed.

Seventh Round

• Antoine Green, Detroit Lions
• Colton Dowell, Tennessee Titans
• Jalen Brooks, Dallas Cowboys
• Ronnie Bell, San Francisco 49ers
• Grant DuBose, Green Bay Packers

Nothing of note here. Bell’s name came up a few times last season, but the 49ers drafted Ricky Pearsall in the first round, pushing Bell further down the depth chart on an uber-talented team.