Fantasy Football Expectations for Second-Year Tight Ends: Projections for Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer and More
A look at the fantasy status of the tight ends who entered the league in the 2023 draft relative to their rookie projections.
Tight end is a tiered position in fantasy football: One or two players sit at the top many years while a few others are consistently good, the largest group is valuable on the right weeks, and others don’t ever come near the fantasy radar. It’s similar to running back and wide receiver, but the tiers are much smaller, closer to quarterback in that regard.
Past performance has shown that rookie tight ends often struggle to make an impact before improving in the following years. That notion was smashed last season, making the guys who didn’t break through easy to forget.
Every rookie has the potential to be a part of the offense if things break right. Even fifth-round picks, like Puka Nacua, might be superstars. Then the games start, and we remember that it takes players time to adapt to the NFL, whether that means adding/dropping weight, learning more complicated schemes, or just getting better with practice reps.
I am looking at the players drafted last year at each fantasy football position (quarterback, running back, wide receiver) and focusing on their expectations this year versus their rookie season. Sometimes, that means a bigger role; others see their previously high hopes deflated after struggling during their first season.
Let’s focus on the tight ends here, including two guys who starred as rookies and a few others possibly primed for a breakout after one of the biggest tight end drafts ever. Players are listed in the order they were drafted and with the team that drafted them.
First Round
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
The only first-round tight end, Kincaid may be looked at more as a top receiver than a true tight end after an offseason of talent walking out the door in Buffalo. Gabe Davis left for the Jaguars in free agency and Stefon Diggs was traded to the Texans, so there has been much consternation around who will step up as the WR1 for the Bills.
Khalil Shakir returns with a probable expanded role in his third season. Keon Coleman was drafted 33rd overall. Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins and Chase Claypool are veteran depth. None of them has the upside of Kincaid in 2024.
Taking on the role of top receiver would mean Kincaid looking something like Travis Kelce in Kansas City. Even when Tyreek Hill was on the team, Kelce regularly topped 1,000 yards and averaged over eight touchdowns.
If you believe in Kincaid operating in that role, drafting him higher than his fantasy projection makes sense. He will be available after guys like Kelce but with the potential for higher highs.
Second Round
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
LaPorta was one of the best tight ends in football last season. He led the group in touchdowns (his 10 were four more than anyone else) and was in the top five in receptions and receiving yards.
LaPorta has a case as the top tight end in fantasy and will likely fight with Kelce for that honor.
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders
Mayer was touted as the most pro-ready tight end prospect last season; he finished with about one-third of the receptions and yards LaPorta had and just two touchdowns. Under normal circumstances, it would be easy to peg Mayer as a likely candidate to break out in his second season.
Then the Raiders drafted Georgia’s Brock Bowers in the first round when the top-10 talent fell to No. 13. Bowers and Mayer are different players, and they can play together given Bowers’ dynamic skill set. Most screens and set plays will go to Bowers, though, taking away focus that would otherwise go to Mayer on tight end pet plays.
Mayer isn’t on the fantasy radar as more than a lottery ticket going into this season. He could find a role in his second season, but low-quality quarterback play matched with a fight for targets means Mayer isn’t likely to have many big weeks.
Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers
Green Bay double-dipped into one of the best tight end classes ever, first taking Musgrave in the second round. Musgrave essentially matched his draft-mate Tucker Kraft, who we will get to in a minute, but he did so in just 11 games.
That means his per-game numbers were better, but he now has an injury history; the future will tell if it was the start of a pattern or just a one-off, but it’s worth remembering that Musgrave missed around one-third of a season.
I’ll finish this discussion when we get to Kraft…
Luke Schoonmaker, Dallas Cowboys
Schoonmaker’s breakout potential was stolen by Jake Ferguson, who had 71 receptions for 761 yards and five touchdowns last year. Schoonmaker was held to an 8/65/2 line. A healthy Ferguson will remain a weekly fantasy starter while Schoonmaker is off the radar. An injury to Ferguson would give Schoonmaker a chance at a big role with big shoes to fill.
Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars
After Strange joined the team, Evan Engram proceeded to set a tight end record with 114 catches in 2023. Strange’s draft profile said he was good at catching passes but not as a blocker; the problem is that his work as a pass catcher mirrors Engram, so Strange will always play behind his veteran teammate.
In kind, Strange won’t have any fantasy value while Engram is healthy, though he would be an upside play to replace a lot of volume if Engram were lost for an extended stretch.
Third Round
Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
Picking up where we left off with Musgrave, Kraft was taken 36 picks after his fellow tight end. They were both around 30 receptions, 350 yards and one or two touchdowns, but again, Musgrave did it in six less games.
Both players are likely to be part of the game plan, and it looks like Musgrave is the top option heading into the season. It’s hard to trust one half of a duo to be a weekly starter, so Musgrave and Kraft both top out as streamers in the right situation with a little upside for Musgrave if he makes a connection with his young quarterback.
Darnell Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers
Cameron Latu, San Francisco 49ers
Washington and Latu are both huge bodies who entered the league as more blockers/projects than ready to contribute to the passing game. Latu didn’t appear in a game, and Washington had seven catches for 61 yards. Neither is fantasy relevant.
Fourth Round
None
Odd that we went a whole round without a tight end taken when so many were drafted…
Fifth Round
- Josh Whyle, Tennessee Titans
- Will Mallory, Indianapolis Colts
- Payne Durham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Davis Allen, Los Angeles Rams
Each guy here is behind at least one other player on the depth chart and often has multiple TEs above him. Mallory topped the group with 18 receptions and 207 yards while Whyle and Allen each scored a touchdown.
Mallory is closest to having fantasy value, but none of these guys is anywhere close to draft consideration.
Sixth Round
None
Another round with no one at the position.
Seventh Round
- Zack Kuntz, New York Jets
- Brayden Willis, San Francisco 49ers
Neither guy appeared in a game nor is anywhere near the fantasy radar.
#2024-fantasy-football
