Analyzing ADP Running Back Data: Are RBs Like Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, De'Von Achane, Josh Jacobs and More Being Drafted Early, Late or Just Right?
Taking a look at FantasySP fantasy football ADP data as the regular season nears.
After analyzing fantasy football Average Draft Position data for quarterbacks on Tuesday, it’s time to do the same for the running back position.
Unlike the QB position, we won’t be able to cover nearly all of the relevant fantasy options for the season.
We’ll cover wide receivers and tight ends in different stories, so check back for those.
Get ready for draft season! Practice Mock Drafts, check out ADPs and get advice for trades with our trade analyzer.
The Top Dog
Christian McCaffrey is the top fantasy running back for 2024. He’s the consensus No. 1 pick after a monster 2023 season.
McCaffrey is now dealing with a calf strain, but it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be that big of a deal, so I wouldn’t budge on him being the top pick.
He’s able to impact the game as a ball carrier and pass catcher, which makes him especially valuable in PPR leagues. No matter what way you slice it though, McCaffrey should be the top RB off the board, and the top pick in fantasy drafts.
Other First-Round Options
Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor are all going between picks 5-13, meaning they are first-round possibilities.
Robinson and Gibbs are both second-year backs who had a ton of preseason hype. Robinson has the best chance to dominate the RB touches for his team, so it’s no surprise to see him as RB2 behind McCaffrey.
Robinson is a receiving threat too, which makes him a good all-around fantasy option. With Kirk Cousins now in Atlanta and Arthur Smith no longer the head coach, Robinson should shine in his sophomore season. I’m comfortable taking him in the top five, and wouldn’t mind him at pick four after McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill.
Hall had a strong sophomore season and put away any doubts that the injury he suffered as a rookie would hamper him. He was basically the Jets’ offense in 2023, and now with Aaron Rodgers ready to go again, Hall’s fantasy outlook is brighter.
As long as Rodgers stays healthy, Hall should have plenty of room to roam on the ground. He’s a pass catching threat too, so there’s no reason he can’t finish as a top-three fantasy back. I’m good taking him inside the top 10, but could also argue for taking Amon-Ra St. Brown ahead of him (right now, Hall is going before on average).
Gibbs has to split touches with David Montgomery, but he still went for over 1,200 total yards and 11 touchdowns in 2023. It only makes sense to put more on the plate of the second-year back, but Montgomery is still going to be heavily involved.
That being said, I still am fine with taking Gibbs inside the top 10 and think he should be a top-five fantasy RB. It’s a bit of a risk, but the potential is too good to wait much longer on.
Barkley joins the Eagles, which is a big positive for his fantasy outlook. Of course, QB Jalen Hurts might steal some of his rushing yards and scores, but that might actually help Barkley get through a full season.
Barkley would probably be going earlier if not for some injury concerns, but I’m fine spending an early second-round pick on him.
Taylor had a rough go of things in 2023, and has only played in 21 games over the past two seasons combined. When he’s on the field, he’s one of the best fantasy backs in the game, but there’s risk involved.
Having Anthony Richardson at QB hurts Taylor’s fantasy stock a touch. Taylor also isn’t a major pass-catching threat, so I actually think he’s going a touch too early in drafts right now. I’d prefer him in the middle or latter half of the second round instead of early on.
Some Second-Round Guys
Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry and De'Von Achane are some more second-round options. They are going between picks 15-20 right now.
Williams was a breakout star in his second year in the NFL. In 12 games, he had over 1,300 yards and 15 total TDs.
Blake Corum was drafted to LA, which is scaring some fantasy owners off Williams, but even with a couple less touches per game, Williams’ fantasy stock isn’t really all that affected. If anything, Corum getting some work might help Williams get through the season pretty healthy. I see a lot of value in getting Williams near his current ADP, and would also consider him over Taylor near the 15th pick.
Etienne didn’t really build on his solid rookie season as a rusher, but scored 12 total touchdowns to be a strong fantasy asset. There’s some new faces on the Jacksonville offense, but his fantasy stock really depends on how QB Trevor Lawrence plays.
A better season from Lawrence means more running lanes for Etienne. He’s going a touch too early for my liking right now (I like him early in round three), but he’s certainly capable of producing enough to warrant the high pick.
Henry joins the Ravens, which seems like a match made in heaven. Lamar Jackson will take some opportunities away from Henry, but should also open things up like we’ve never seen before for Henry.
I think there’s tons of value drafting Henry near his current ADP. If he stays healthy, I don’t think it’s crazy to expect him to finish as a top seven fantasy RB, and I could see him also making it inside the top five.
Achane showed flashes of brilliance as a rookie, but there’s definitely some injury concerns going into this season too. He has Raheem Mostert, among others, to contend with in what’s usually a split and fluid Miami backfield.
I get the draft hype for Achane, but I think he’s going far too early for a back who might not even serve as RB1 for his team. The injury concerns bother me too. Let someone else take the big gamble and focus your attention on RB1s or a receiver near pick 20 instead.
The Next Tier
Between picks 25-45, Josh Jacobs, Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White, James Cook, Joe Mixon and Kenneth Walker are being taken. All of these guys look destined to serve as No. 1 options for their team.
Jacobs heads to Green Bay, where there’s a logjam of receivers, but no top back to deal with. I see Jacobs thriving in GB and having the chance to be a draft steal despite the third-round ADP right now. I don’t expect his ADP to move all that much before the start of the season, so there’s great value with him near pick 25.
Pacheco will dominate the touches in KC. If he can get a full season in, there’s a chance he can be a top-eight fantasy back. I like his value near this ADP.
White should be the RB1 in Tampa Bay, although Bucky Irving could take away some snaps and touches. I don’t like him as much as Jacobs or Pacheco, but with a fourth-round ADP right now, that seems pretty fair.
Cook has over 1,500 total yards, but only six touchdowns in 2023. With less proven pass catchers on the team now, I expect Cook to be utilized more, which should bump his TDs up. With an ADP around 40, I like the value here, and if things come together, he’ll be a nice draft steal.
Mixon I view similarly to Jacobs - he’s joining a new offense with a lot of pass catchers, but no real other backs to contend with for snaps/touches. For a fifth-round pick, I love the value here with Mixon, who I think has plenty left in the tank yet.
Walker didn’t really improve from his rookie season, but still is being drafted pretty early. I’m not a huge fan of Walker and would prefer him about a round or so later instead.
More Top-70 Picks
The final group of backs I want to discuss are going between picks 50-67. Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, James Conner, Rhamondre Stevenson, D'Andre Swift and Najee Harris all fall into that pick range right now.
Kamara only played in 13 games last season, but still had over 1,000 total yards, but just six scores. There’s other backs to contend with in New Orleans, but I still think Kamara leads the way quite easily. He’s not as risky a pick with an ADP mark of 50, especially in PPR leagues with his pass-catching ability.
Jones stays in the NFC North and should be the top back for Minnesota. I think he’s got a couple more decent seasons in him, but the quarterback play scares me off Jones. Still, I’m OK grabbing him around his ADP, although I prefer some of the guys I’m about to write about.
Montgomery is a back I like more than Jones. He’s going to still be a big part of the Detroit offense even with Gibbs taking on more. I love the value Montgomery provides this late in a draft and am always trying to draft him.
Conner has played in 13 games in two straight seasons, but still produces plenty when he’s on the field. Trey Benson looks to be the future in Arizona, but I see another solid season for Conner. However, I like a couple backs going after him more.
Stevenson dealt with injuries last season, playing in just 12 games. Antonio Gibson might take away some touches, but hopefully that gets Stevenson through the season. He’s got draft steal written all over him if he can just get through the season.
Swift looks like another draft steal to me. The Bears have a new-look offense, led by Caleb Williams and a trio of receivers, but teams gotta run the ball too, and that’s where Swift should shine. There’s other backs to deal with, but Swift should get the most touches and has a chance to be a top-15 fantasy back if things come together.
Harris is part of a 1-2 punch with Jaylen Warren in Pittsburgh, but Harris still should lead the way. If he can get more involved in the passing game (like his rookie or sophomore seasons), he too could be a draft steal.
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