Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Report: Don't Fall for Caleb Williams' Hard-Knocks Bump

One of the most interesting questions heading into the 2024 fantasy football draft season is how to approach the QB position. As our very own Morgan Rode has already broken down, there are a plethora of options available, from an elite foursome at the top to exciting late-round options with upside.

In this weekly column, I’ll take a look at movement within and between these groups: How are quarterbacks moving up and down draft boards? Without further ado, let’s take a look at this week’s big movers, as always with help from FantasySP’s ADP Tool:

Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Risers

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (-5.75)

The fact that Allen is the biggest riser in ADP among the top 32 quarterbacks while having already started the week as the first QB off the board is absurd. Normally, the biggest movers each week are farther down the draft board, where a slide or rise of a few spots is much more common. Allen moving up nearly half a round while having a second or third-round ADP is unprecedented. 

The even more exceptional thing about Allen’s 25% rise in ADP over the last week is that there is no obvious reason for it. After all, Allen, coming off a dominant QB1 finish in 2023, has been the consensus first quarterback off the board all offseason. The Bills haven’t made any major moves (or even moves at all) over the last week.

Instead, this rise may be a result of more casual drafters entering the fantasy football arena as we get closer to the season. Traditionally, casual fantasy football players tend to draft quarterbacks earlier than hardcore devotees. As the top quarterback on the board, Allen may be seeing a bump as casual players reach for him in the early second round after sorting by total projected points and seeing his name at the top. 

And, to be fair, reaching on Allen is tempting. He was the top QB in points per game by over two full points last season, and a near-lock to finish top-five at the position. Especially in a smaller league, giving yourself that guaranteed stud at the highest-scoring position is very valuable. 

With that said, I can’t get on board with his new 22nd-overall ADP. Even if you want to take an early quarterback, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, who profile very similarly to Allen heading into 2024, are available at 32 and 38 overall respectively.

The opportunity cost of selecting Allen in the second round, where truly elite running backs and wide receivers are still available, is simply too high. Every league treats quarterbacks, especially elite ones, differently, so don’t head into your draft writing Allen off completely … but don’t draft him at his new ADP.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (-3.68)

Technically, Williams isn’t the second-biggest riser of this week, as Bo Nix has risen by 3.70 spots in ADP over the last seven days. But given Williams is being selected 100 picks earlier, his barely smaller total rise makes a much larger relative difference.

As for why Williams is rising, the likely answer is simple: Hard Knocks. The traditional training camp version of the HBO documentary, which features the Bears this year, aired its first episode on Tuesday. And, unsurprisingly, the 2024 first-overall pick was the episode’s biggest star.

It’s not surprising that seeing behind the scenes of Williams’ much-anticipated arrival in Chicago has made drafters a bit more tempted to join the hype train and click the rookie’s name. We’ve seen this trend in past years with other players featured on Hard Knocks.

Of course, being on Hard Knocks doesn’t actually mean a player is going to score more fantasy points, so this is usually an irrational change to ADP. Sometimes, we can get meaningful insight into a player’s role or usage from their behind-the-scenes footage. But that’s not the case for a player like Williams, who is, barring injury, going to play every single snap for the Bears this season. 

Williams does have intriguing upside as a generational prospect surrounded by talent on a suddenly loaded Bears offense. But his new ADP has him above proven fantasy contributors like Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa, who play on stacked offenses of their own. As with Allen, the best play is to avoid Williams at his artificially inflated ADP.

Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Fallers

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (+6.11)

Following news that he would be out indefinitely with a combination knee and hip injury, it’s not surprising that Geno fell in ADP.

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However, we have since received news that the veteran’s injury was not serious; he was even back at Seahawks practice on Monday. With that in mind, it is absolutely worth attempting to buy the dip on Geno if his ADP does not bounce back to pre-injury levels.

Geno was already an appealing QB2 target at his previous ADP, and a half-round discount makes him even more so. His rushing upside is utterly nonexistent, but Smith was the QB5 in 2022.

Since his move to Seattle, he has consistently ranked as a top-half NFL quarterback in nearly every advanced stat: PFF Grade, adjusted completion percentage, EPA per play, net yards per attempt, completion percentage over expectation, you name it. With a new OC and solid weapons around him, don’t be surprised if Smith easily outperforms his backend QB2 ADP. 

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (+4.52)

As with his NFC West rival Smith, there is an obvious explanation for why Purdy’s ADP has fallen over the last week. It is seeming more and more probably with each day that Brandon Aiyuk, Purdy’s most-targeted receiver in 2023 and one of the NFL’s best WRs, will be traded out of San Francisco before the start of the season. If a trade does ever materialize out of all the smoke, Purdy’s ADP will fall even further. 

And losing Aiyuk would be a huge loss for Purdy. He doesn’t see as many targets as most WR1s thanks to the 49ers’ loaded offense, but Aiyuk is arguably a top-five talent in the league at the WR position. He averaged an absolutely absurd 12.4 yards per target last season, easily the most in the league, and was second to only Tyreek Hill in PFF Receiving Grade. Losing a weapon like that would hurt any quarterback, especially one without much rushing upside like Purdy.

On the other hand, Kyle Shanahan could build a top-half offense out of a pile of scraps, and George Kittle, Deebo Samuel Sr. and Christian McCaffrey certainly aren’t scraps. Purdy finished as the QB6 last season, so his current QB11 ADP already has baked-in regression. Stay away for now until the Aiyuk situation is resolved one way or the other, but Purdy is absolutely worth drafting is Aiyuk is traded and his ADP falls further.