Recent Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts: Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson can Teach Us Lessons
Recent wide receivers who performed worse than their draft status and what we can learn about 2024.
Any team who wants to be consistently successful, though, needs to have a successful passing game that is at least efficient if not explosive. With the ball flying around the field, statistics are more abundant for receivers than ever before, and players are entering the league as top-30 fantasy receivers almost every year.
At FantasySP, we have fantasy draft bust information from recent seasons that show the average draft position and final scoring rankings of each player. I went through the last three seasons (here is the information for 2023, 2022 and 2021) to look at how many players “busted” at each position to try to determine if any positions were safer than others and to identify any clues that could have warned us about coming declines.
Injuries are a big part of the equation every season. Most fantasy busts end up as such because the players in question miss extended time. I’m more interested in the non-injured, though. Is there a common thread that might hint toward the busts of 2024?
In each season, I went through the top 40 drafted wide receivers and listed each player who finished at least 10 spots lower than his draft status among his position. I’ll be filtering out those who sustained major injuries and breaking down those who simply regressed or failed to break out.
The rankings are all in PPR format. You can find the previous bust investigations below.
2023
- Justin Jefferson: Drafted WR1, finished WR36
- Cooper Kupp: Drafted WR4, finished WR39
- Garrett Wilson: Drafted WR10, finished WR23
- Jaylen Waddle: Drafted WR11, finished WR29
- Tee Higgins: Drafted WR14, finished WR47
- Christian Watson: Drafted WR23, finished WR63
- Drake London: Drafted WR24, finished WR37
- Mike Williams: Drafted WR25, finished WR110
- Jerry Jeudy: Drafted WR27, finished WR53
- Christian Kirk: Drafted WR30, finished WR43
- Diontae Johnson: Drafted WR31, finished WR49
- Marquise Brown: Drafted WR35, finished WR48
- Jahan Dotson: Drafted WR36, finished WR54
Injuries: Jefferson, Kupp, Waddle, Higgins, Watson, Williams, Kirk
Johnson and Brown each appeared in 14 games, which hurt their rankings, but that’s not the only thing that kept them down. Poor quarterback play in Pittsburgh (Kenny Pickett/Mitchell Trubisky) and Arizona (until Kyler Murray came back…and before Brown got hurt) also sunk their chances at successful seasons, something we will see plenty more.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Bad quarterback play is going to be a theme throughout this exercise. The idea last season was simple: Wilson had over 80 receptions and 1,100 yards as a rookie catching passes from Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco, and now Aaron Rodgers was coming to town to transform the young receiver into the next Davante Adams.
Then Rodgers went down four plays into the season, and Wilson caught passes from Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle, essentially repeating his rookie season stats. He has produced during both seasons, but he’s only scored seven total touchdowns, keeping him around the 20th best fantasy receiver.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
London had a good rookie year, collecting about 70 catches and 900-ish yards. Like Wilson, the idea was that he’d develop further in his second season, though he didn’t have a quarterback upgrade like Rodgers coming to town.
Again like Wilson, London repeated his first season’s stats; that’s fine, but he didn’t reach the top 20 receivers the way many thought he would while operating in a running offense with Desmond Ridder under center.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Jeudy was the 15th overall pick in 2020 with thoughts he would be the team’s WR1 for years. Should we play the quarterback game again? Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, Teddy Bridgewater, Jarrett Stidham (whom I think I called “Jared” Stidham in a recent article) and Russell Wilson have thrown passes to Jeudy.
Wilson was supposed to be the savior, but he had his worst professional season in 2022 before improving a little last year, but it wasn’t enough to save Jeudy’s fantasy season, as he finished with a 54-758-2 line; Jeudy was traded to Cleveland this offseason.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
Dotson made a fantasy splash as a rookie by scoring seven touchdowns on 35 receptions, a totally unsustainable rate for any receiver. Despite increasing to 49 catches last season, he scored only four times and gained five less yards.
Sam Howell took over from the combination of Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke and performed about the same as those two. It was below-average quarterback play, and Dotson, a 2022 first-round pick, couldn’t take a step forward as a performer.
2022
- Cooper Kupp: Drafted WR2, finished WR17
- Deebo Samuel Sr.: Drafted WR7, finished WR32
- Michael Pittman Jr.: Drafted WR9, finished WR21
- Mike Evans: Drafted WR10, finished WR23
- Keenan Allen: Drafted WR11, finished WR48
- D.J. Moore: Drafted WR14, finished WR27
- Mike Williams: Drafted WR16, finished WR35
- Diontae Johnson: Drafted WR17, finished WR30
- Courtland Sutton: Drafted WR18, finished WR45
- Allen Robinson: Drafted WR22, finished WR80
- Brandin Cooks: Drafted WR24, finished WR51
- Darnell Mooney: Drafted WR28, finished WR62
- Marquise Brown: Drafted WR29, finished WR44
- Rashod Bateman: Drafted WR33, finished WR104
- Elijah Moore: Drafted WR36, finished WR83
Injuries: Kupp, Samuel, Evans, Allen, Williams, Robinson, Cooks, Mooney, Brown, Bateman
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Pittman increased his catch total in 2022, but he was 157 yards and two touchdowns lower than in 2021. Somehow, Wentz in 2021 greatly outplayed Matt Ryan in ’22, throwing for about 500 yards and 13 touchdowns more than Ryan did.
Pittman felt the effects of the drop in quarterback play, averaging a full 3 yards per catch less (!!) than either of his first two seasons.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
Carolina’s QB play wasn’t very good in 2021, as Sam Darnold took most of the snaps with end-of-career Cam Newton and P.J. Walker also seeing the field. Carolina’s QB play in 2022 was… maybe worse, as Darnold, Walker and Baker Mayfield split the work.
After gaining over 1,100 yards in three straight seasons, Moore dropped to 888 in 2022 as the Panthers floundered for direction. Who would have thought going to the Chicago Bears would be the best thing for Moore’s receiving numbers?
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Johnson had his best season in 2021, catching 107 passes for 1,161 yards and eight touchdowns. He lost about 20 catches and 300 yards in 2022, but the biggest difference was that he didn’t score any touchdowns. After catching a touchdown every 12.7 receptions up until that point, Johnson caught 86 passes and never got into the end zone.
His rate was about once every 10 catches in 2023, so his shutout was a true anomaly and highly unlucky.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Sutton played 15 games, enough to reach his draft status but also enough to knock him down a peg. Russell Wilson’s first year in Denver was supposed to be a turnaround season for the Broncos, but instead he had his worst season in the league, and Sutton suffered rather than excelling with his new QB.
Things probably won’t be any better in 2024 with some combination of Bo Nix, Stidham and Zach Wilson throwing him the ball.
Elijah Moore, New York Jets
Moore entered the league as the 34th overall pick in 2021 with thoughts he could be a top-end slot receiver and maybe contribute in other ways. Well, he went to the Jets, which was problem No. 1. After catching passes from Wilson, White and Flacco during his second season, his quarterbacks in 2022 were…Wilson, White and Flacco.
Despite appearing in five more games in ’22, he decreased in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns from his rookie season. Many were expecting Moore to improve heading into his second year, but he went in the opposite direction. Part of the reason was probably the addition of Garrett Wilson.
2021
- DeAndre Hopkins: Drafted WR4, finished WR37
- Calvin Ridley: Drafted WR5, finished WR92
- DK Metcalf: Drafted WR6, finished WR21
- A.J. Brown: Drafted WR8, finished WR33
- Terry McLaurin: Drafted WR10, finished WR25
- Allen Robinson: Drafted WR12, finished WR91
- Robert Woods: Drafted WR13, finished WR44
- Amari Cooper: Drafted WR15, finished WR26
- Brandon Aiyuk: Drafted WR22, finished WR41
- Jerry Jeudy: Drafted WR25, finished WR79
- Chase Claypool: Drafted WR26, finished WR39
- Odell Beckham Jr: Drafted WR27, finished WR56
- Laviska Shenault: Drafted WR32, finished WR52
Injuries: Hopkins, Ridley, Brown, Robinson, Woods, Jeudy, Beckham
There is more to Ridley’s story than just “injuries,” but missed games are the reason he failed to live up to his fantasy draft status, so I’ll leave it at that.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf’s quarterback situation played into his decline from 2020, but it wasn’t a change in QB like other receivers dealt with. Instead, Russell Wilson had one of his best seasons in ’20 but played two less games in ’21 and lost 1,100 passing yards and 15 touchdowns.
There wasn’t any reason to expect a big dip from Wilson, but he has been on a downward trajectory since that time. Metcalf was almost 400 yards lower in 2021, though he added two touchdowns.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
McLaurin had close to the same numbers in 2020 and 2021. After adding nearly 30 receptions and 200 yards from his rookie year to ’20, McLaurin pretty much repeated the season.
He finished 20th among receivers in 2020, and everyone was expecting him to continue improving to top-10 status. His 2021 finish of 25th was much more likely in hindsight than another big jump.
His quarterback play wasn’t any better, going from Alex Smith and Dwayne Haskins taking most of the snaps to Taylor Heinicke running the show. It was a case of expecting too much from a guy who had just leapt to WR2 status.
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
When Dak Prescott missed most of 2020, Cooper had 92 catches for 1,114 yards. With the starting QB back in place in 2021 Cooper dropped to 68 and 865. I thought the emergence of CeeDee Lamb would be the biggest culprit, but Lamb had close to the same stats in both seasons.
Cooper’s drop was odd at the time. With a few more seasons of information, it looks like his 2020 was a major outlier, and his ’21 season was simply just falling back to Earth. PPR leagues were most impacted, as Cooper has never been within 12 receptions of his 2020 number in any other season.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk caught 60 passes in 12 games as a rookie in 2020. It made sense to expect more in 2021, but he fell to 56 receptions in 17 games. Well, he has gone for 78 and 75 catches over the past two seasons and topped 1,000 yards in each, so we were just a year early in projecting big things.
Development isn’t a linear process that advances in clear steps over specific seasons. Whether it’s gaining strength, getting a better grasp of the playbook, earning the coach/quarterback’s trust, or several other issues, things must break right for any player to excel, let alone a second-year guy. Sometimes, it just takes a little longer for a player to get to his eventual top level.
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
Claypool’s rookie season in 2020: 62 receptions, 873 yards, nine touchdowns. Claypool’s 2021 season: 59 receptions, 860 yards, two touchdowns. The drop in TDs cost him 42 fantasy points. Add those in, and he would have been WR26 in PPR, right where he was drafted.
Touchdowns are random from year to year for most players, so things like this happen, and it’s impossible to tell when a guy might not score (we talked about it with Johnson earlier). While those two seasons would lead us to expect more moving forward, Claypool has topped out at 46 catches, 451 yards and one touchdown in the two seasons since. He was recently placed on IR and will miss this entire season.
Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars
Remember when Shenault was a thing? He was one of three Jaguar receivers to catch at least 50 passes for at least 600 yards in 2020 with Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon and Jake Luton throwing all the passes.
With Trevor Lawrence entering the picture in 2021, it made sense to expect a jump in performance, but Shenault put up almost the same line other than dropping from five touchdowns to zero. Shenault was sent to Carolina that offseason and hasn’t made any impact since.
Lessons for 2024
Bad Quarterbacks Hurt Production for Good Receivers
Quarterback play is the number one culprit in disappointing receiver performances. Most of our guys on this list (other than the injured) had middling-to-inept QBs throwing them the ball, lowering their ceiling before the ball was even snapped.
Wilson, London and Jeudy in 2023; Pittman, DJ Moore, Sutton and Elijah Moore in 2022; and Metcalf in 2021 can all be largely blamed on bad QBs either due to lineup construction or injuries. The injuries are almost impossible to predict, but we might be able to identify receivers who will be held down by their teammates.
The Patriots, Browns, Steelers, Titans, Broncos, Raiders, Giants, Commanders, Vikings, Saints and Panthers seem like teams that could underwhelm with their men under center. We could argue that a few teams either should or shouldn’t be on that list, but the idea is more important than the specifics (you can make your own calls on the 50/50 guys).
Malik Nabers is a player who isn’t expected to be a top fantasy receiver, but he is a later lottery ticket who some surely think will enter the league as a great receiver due to his skill set. With Daniel Jones under center, the ceiling already seems capped, though.
If Jones gets hurt again or the team benches him to avoid triggering injury guarantees, Nabers will be catching passes from Drew Lock; that doesn’t sound like fantasy success to me. Guys like Adams, Cooper, Ridley, McLaurin, Johnson and more are at risk of struggling to reach the level we are expecting of them because of the guys throwing them the ball.
Expected Improvement Doesn't Always Come
I mentioned it earlier, but development doesn’t just happen year to year. You’ll hear people say something like, “…and Quarterback X will be better in his 2nd/3rd/4th year, so the team is much better suited to contend.” Are you sure he’ll be better? Do you have any proof, or is it just assumed because that’s how things are supposed to work?
Dotson in 2023 and McLaurin, Aiyuk, Claypool and Shenault in 2021 are examples here. Each of those guys had good seasons previously and were assumed to improve upon those numbers, moving to another level of fantasy success. It didn’t happen, and fantasy owners were left with over-drafted receivers who were bit players and streamers more than regular fantasy contributors.
Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, Jameson Williams, Jordan Addison and seemingly every Packers’ receiver fits here. That’s not the whole list, as there are so many young receivers who could conceivably make a jump, but it’s a good set of players at a few different fantasy levels who many are expecting to be better fantasy options than they were in 2023.
Some of those guys (and others) will improve, but at least a few of them will stay at their previous marks or decline.
Outlier Seasons give Us Unrealistic Expectations
This can go one of two ways: Either the receiver had an outlier season the year before that he can’t repeat (like Cooper in 2021) or he will mostly play to standard except for falling short in one area (like Johnson not scoring any touchdowns in 2022). The second example is impossible to project; things just happen sometimes, as Forrest Gump once said.
The problem with the former example is that we often don’t know a season was an outlier until a few years after the fact. He’s not a wide receiver, but Sam LaPorta caught 10 touchdowns as a rookie last season, leading the position. Maybe that will be a regular thing, but maybe he will catch around six TDs per season for the rest of his career, and we’ll look at 2024 as by far his best outing. Again, we won’t know for a few years who the outliers are.
The players I mentioned as 2024 examples aren’t all going to fail. This is more about remembering that things often don’t go according to plan, so when you are making decisions on draft day, don’t fall into traps based on “what we expect” as much as what each individual situation looks like and what the most likely outcome is at the end of the season.
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