Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Report: Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice and Jordan Addison

Ted takes a look at the biggest movers in fantasy football ADP at the wide receiver position over the last week.

The NFL season starts next week — it’s so close you can taste it. Many fantasy football leagues have already had their drafts, but many more will draft over the next 10 days. Now is the time when it is most important to be locked into every ADP change. The last thing a fantasy manager wants is to show up to their draft with out-of-date information. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the biggest movers in wide receiver ADP over the last week.

As always, all ADP data is found using FantasySP’s ADP Tool, which automatically tracks each player’s trend over the last seven days. Let’s get started.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Risers

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs (-2.23)

Rice’s ADP has been on an absolute rollercoaster this offseason. In very early drafts, fresh off a Super Bowl win and breakout rookie season as Patrick Mahomes’ WR1, he was consistently taken in the early rounds. Then the Chiefs signed competition for Rice in Marquise Brown. Then Rice was arrested and charged with multiple felonies for his involvement in a high-speed crash. Then Kansas City added even more competition in first-round receiver Xavier Worthy. Put it all together, and his ADP plummeted, reaching a bottom of 89 overall in ADP. 

However, things have turned around since then for Rice. Brown has been out with a shoulder injury, clearing the way for Rice to resume his role as the Chiefs’ WR1 in preseason. Meanwhile, although predicting the NFL’s discipline process is a fool’s game, it seems less and less likely that Rice will be suspended this season. Put that all together, and Rice has risen back up to 71 overall. He’s even higher in some places, including 42nd overall in Underdog Best Ball drafts.

Whether Rice’s re-inflated ADP is fair is a very tough question. On the one hand, his rookie-year production is a little suspect. His 5.2-yard ADOT was the lowest of any receiver with at least 50 targets and nearly three full yards lower than the next 100-target receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown at 8.0).

Even while competing with a truly barren receiver room, he mostly relied on schemed-up underneath touches to produce. There’s reason to wonder whether he’ll see as high a target share in the revamped KC offense. And, of course, that suspension risk still looms.

On the other hand, this is a 24-year-old second-year WR who has a real shot to be Patrick Mahomes’ top target. His falling to the late sixth round could be the bargain of the year. Combining his high-risk and high-reward profile, Rice is a fair value, if not a little undervalued. He might burn you, but it’s worth taking that chance to draft him as your WR3.     

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (-0.35)

It may seem silly to highlight a player who rose by less than half a spot, but this is a very significant move. After this last week, Hill has officially overtaken CeeDee Lamb, the reigning WR1 and consensus WR1 for the entire offseason, in ADP.

Hill is now the consensus second-overall pick, behind only fantasy god Christian McCaffrey. It’s particularly interesting that this is happening now, after a whole offseason of Lamb holding the No. 2 spot, despite a lack of any real game-changing news for either player. Perhaps fantasy managers are worried about Lamb’s holdout affecting his game, or maybe people just prefer Hill. Either way, this is a big deal, as an early first-round pick can make or break your season.

You can’t go wrong in the choice between Lamb and Hill. Lamb led in total points in all formats in 2023, but Hill edged him in points per game in both half-PPR and standard. Both are elite talents whose offenses run through them.

With that said, when splitting hairs, I’d still lean Lamb. He’s younger, has less competition for touches, and has a better injury history. Both players clearly have WR1 overall as their ceiling, but CeeDee’s floor may be just a touch higher. If you’ve got the second-overall pick, stick with the old ADP and select the Cowboy. 

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Fallers

Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs (+2.60)

As is common in these ADP articles, we have a clear pair as our largest riser and largest faller. While Rice shoots up boards, his teammate Hollywood is falling down. He suffered a sternoclavicular (shoulder) injury in the Chiefs’ first preseason game, from which it was originally announced he would miss four to six weeks. That timeline means he will likely miss at least the Chiefs’ first game and may miss multiple weeks to begin the season. Unsurprisingly, he has fallen down draft boards as a result, over 40 spots from his peak ADP to his current rank of 96th overall.

Even though his fall directly corresponds to Rice’s rise, Rice being undervalued does not necessarily mean Brown is overvalued. In fact, it is actually worth buying the injury discount on Brown at his new ADP. The first few weeks of the season are by far the best time for fantasy teams to contend with an injury, and upper-body injuries do not normally come with huge re-injury risk.

The fact that Hollywood has fallen over three full rounds makes him a bargain worth snagging. After all, there’s a real chance that the veteran ends up being the Chiefs’ WR1, especially if Rice is eventually suspended. Kansas City’s offense is primed to explode this year, and it’s worth buying a ticket on that train however you can.

Jordan Addison, Kansas City Chiefs (+2.21)

Interestingly, Addison combines many of the red flags of both Brown and Rice. Like Rice, his rookie-year production may not be sustainable, although for a different reason: Addison scored a touchdown on 14% of his 70 receptions, which is almost certain to regress with the Vikings’ QB downgrade.

Also like Rice, he is a suspension risk, with legal issues resulting from a DUI incident. But, like Hollywood, Addison is also injured. He was carted off the Vikings’ practice field two weeks ago and has yet to return to play. His injury is reportedly minor enough that he has a real shot to play in Week 1, but ankle injuries do linger. Put it all together, and it’s unsurprising that Addison has fallen nearly 30 spots to his current ADP of 109 overall.

But is it worth buying the dip on Addison? Unfortunately, I think not. Not only does he have a huge amount of red flags, Addison is also lacking the key piece that makes it worth taking risks on players like Rice and Brown: ceiling.

At best, he will be the clear WR2 for Sam Darnold. There’s no room for his role to grow, as he finished seventh in the league in routes as a rookie, which means he posted a mediocre 1.5 yards per route run. Addison is very close to having fallen far enough for his price to be worth paying, but he’s not there quite yet.   

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