Chiefs Fantasy Football Outlook for Week 1: Should You Start Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and More?

The NFL regular season kicks off Thursday with a fantastic matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens.

As we do before every primetime game, FantasySP is here to break down the matchup and the fantasy outlooks for players on both teams. We’ll open with the Chiefs since they are the defending Super Bowl champs.

Looking for start/sit help? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Who Should I Start tool.

Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Outlook

Mahomes comes into the 2024 season with a more talented group of offensive playmakers around him, although one isn’t likely to play in week 1.

Mahomes had a “down” season in 2023, throwing for 4,183 yards, 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions during 16 regular season games. He rushed for 389 yards, but didn’t score on the ground.

He matched up against Baltimore one time last season. In the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes was 30-of-39 for 241 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. He added 15 rushing yards on six attempts.

I expect a bounceback season from Mahomes, especially with a better team around him. The matchup to kick off the season isn’t the easiest, but he’s still projected to score the fifth-most fantasy points.

Running Back Fantasy Outlook

Isiah Pacheco is back to lead the Chiefs’ running game. He’ll have a new backup after Clyde Edwards-Helaire was placed on the reserve/non-football injury list, which probably makes Pacheco that much more valuable from a fantasy perspective.

Pacheco had 935 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 205 attempts across 14 games played in 2023. He added 244 receiving yards and two scores on 44 catches and 49 targets.

Pacheco had 68 rushing yards and a score on 24 attempts in the AFC title game against Baltimore. He had 14 receiving yards on four catches and targets.

Undrafted rookie Carson Steele and Samaje Perine will back Pacheco up to start the season.

Steele had a nice preseason, but likely won’t be heavily involved right out of the gate, especially in a battle with one of the league’s best teams. Perine was with the Broncos last season, rushing for 238 yards and a touchdown on 53 carries and adding 455 receiving yards and no scores on 50 catches and 56 targets across 17 games played. I expect Perine to get most of the RB touches when Pacheco isn’t on the field.

In PPR formats, Pacheco is projected 14th among running backs in week 1. Steele and Perine don’t crack the top 60.

Wide Receiver Fantasy Outlook

Rashee Rice is back (for now, with a possible suspension looming) to lead the KC receiver room, but he’s also got Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy alongside him now. 

Rice had 938 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 79 receptions and 102 targets as a rookie. He played in 16 games, making eight starts.

Rice caught eight of his nine targets in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore last season. He went for just 46 yards though.

Brown was signed in free agency, but is likely out in week 1 because of a shoulder injury he suffered during the preseason. In 14 games with the Cardinals last season, Brown had 574 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 51 catches and 101 targets. 

Worthy is projected as a starter even with Brown around, and should get even more playing time early on with Brown out. He had three receptions, 62 yards and a touchdown in the preseason.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman are also on the active roster right now. They should help spell Worthy and Rice, and replace the snaps Brown would have got. 

None of the wideouts had over 500 receiving yards a season ago, with Watson (460) being the only one over 300 yards. Smith-Schuster struggled with the Patriots last season, but had plenty of success with the Chiefs in 2022, so he’s a name to keep an eye on early in the season with Brown out.

Worthy might also return punts for KC, while Hardman returns kickoffs, so if your league rewards returners, they could also score in that fashion.

In PPR formats, Rice is the top-ranked KC receiver at 29th, while Worthy is 33rd. No other wideout cracks the top 75.

Tight End Fantasy Outlook

Having Brown out is not ideal for the Chiefs’ offense, but with tight end Travis Kelce still around, the offense should be just fine.

Kelce also had a down regular season in 2023. He went for 984 yards and five touchdowns on 93 receptions and 121 yards across 15 games played.

Kelce caught Mahomes’ touchdown pass in the AFC title game and went for 116 yards in total on 11 catches and targets.

Noah Gray and rookie Jared Wiley are the top backup TEs, but aren’t likely to have big roles offensively unless Kelce is out. 

Kelce is the top-projected tight end in PPR formats for week 1, narrowly edging Detroit’s Sam LaPorta.

Kicker and Defense Outlook

Harrison Butker is back to kick for Kansas City.

He was 33-of-35 on his field goal attempts in 2023. He made all 38 of his extra points. Butker made both extra points and his one field goal attempt against Baltimore in the postseason.

Butker is the fifth-ranked kicker in the week 1 projections.

Kansas City’s defense carried the team at times in 2023, and looks like it’ll be a strong unit again in 2024. There’s no rookies projected in the starting lineup, while veterans like Chris Jones, Justin Reid, Trent McDuffie and George Karlaftis III are back.

KC’s defense held Baltimore to 10 points in the playoff game. The Ravens had just 336 total yards and held the ball for less than 23 minutes. The Chiefs had three takeaways as well.

The Chiefs are projected for the ninth-most fantasy points among D/ST for week 1.

Who to Start in Week 1

This is a great matchup to kick off the 2024 NFL regular season. It should be a tight and entertaining contest, with two of the league’s best battling for a massive early season win. I like the Chiefs to prevail 24-20. Check out more odds and betting details here.

You didn’t spend an early draft pick on Mahomes not to start him in week 1. The matchup isn’t great, but Mahomes should be able to do enough to put up at least average fantasy numbers.

I also think Pacheco needs to be started in week 1. He’s going to have a big workload, and that alone should help him to a big fantasy day.

As for the team’s receivers, Rice and Worthy are both on the start/sit line for week 1. I like Rice between the two and think he should be in most starting lineups (depending on your other starters, of course). Worthy I would trust more as a starter in a bit deeper formats, but based on your roster, he might need to be starting. I don’t think he’s a bad option, but it’s hard to trust a rookie wideout in a primetime game in week 1 of the season.

The other KC wideouts are all starting options in deeper leagues only, and I’d do my best to try to avoid them all. I’d take them in this order: Smith-Schuster, Watson, Hardman, Moore.

Kelce needs to be starting every week he’s healthy. I’m guessing he ends up leading the Chiefs in many receiving stats in week 1 and he’s got a great chance to finish as fantasy TE1.

Butker might not get a ton of work in a lower-scoring contest, but his accuracy is good to trust and makes him a good starting option for week 1. 

It’s not usually a good idea to start a D/ST against Baltimore, but Kansas City has one of the top defenses in the league. I expect them to create some turnovers and hold the Ravens in check for the most part. I’m fine starting KC’s D/ST in week 1.