One-Hit Wonders or Here to Stay? Analyzing Week 1 Breakout Players Matthew Stafford, Joe Mixon, Jameson Williams, Isaiah Likely and More

Discussing fantasy football players who excelled in week 1 and then determining if more big games are coming or if it was a one-week blip.

Week 1 of the NFL season is now in the books, and many are turning their attention to week 2 and beyond.

In an 18-week regular season, things are magnified. A player could star one week and do pretty much nothing the rest of the season. Another could have a great fantasy season outside a game or two.

That’s what this FantasySP series is based on. In one part of the series, we’ll address some poor performances from the past week and whether or not it’s time to panic with those players. The other part of the series will focus on players who turned in big performances and determine whether or not to expect more of those in the future, or chalk it up as a one-week outlier.

This story is about the standout performances in week 1 from unsuspecting players. Here’s the story on the poor performers from week 1.

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Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield are a couple sparsely-owned fantasy quarterbacks who had good showings in week 1.

Stafford had a positive outing despite his team losing. He completed 34 of his 49 passes for 317 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Stafford’s fantasy day would have looked a lot better without the pick, but he currently sits second in the league in passing yards, so he deserves a spot in this story.

The game situation and matchup dictated that Stafford and the Rams’ offense pass a bunch, but this isn’t a new thing for Stafford. He can put up huge numbers when tasked with passing a bunch. Stafford doesn’t have a super favorable schedule ahead at this point, but he’s one of the better streaming options every week, and is a good backup fantasy option in standard leagues.

I’d say to not expect similar outings in the coming games, but at the same time, think he’s more than capable of putting up respectable fantasy numbers. So, Stafford wasn’t a one-hit wonder in my book.

Mayfield dominated in week 1, throwing for 289 yards and four touchdowns. He completed 24 of his 30 passes and didn’t throw a pick.

He’s also got a tougher schedule ahead, but has a few weaker pass defenses coming up. That makes him a good waiver wire addition, and someone to hold for a few weeks at least. 

If you don’t want to start him against a great pass defense, Mayfield showed enough in 2023 and the 2024 opener to at least hold to see if he can be at least an average fantasy quarterback every week. Mayfield is not a one-hit wonder to me.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon, J.K. Dobbins and Rhamondre Stevenson are the three backs I want to focus on.

Mixon was one of the biggest surprises of the week, rushing for 159 yards and a score on 30 attempts. He had an additional 19 yards on three catches and targets. 

He might not be that involved every game, but on a high-flying offense, a healthy Mixon could be a major fantasy asset. It looks like he’ll be a workhorse, so I absolutely do not see this as a one-week outlier.

Dobbins was super efficient in his 2024 debut, rushing for 135 yards and a score on 10 attempts. He added four receiving yards on three catches and targets.

We weren’t sure if Dobbins or Gus Edwards would be the featured back in Los Angeles. While Edwards got one more rushing attempt, he wasn’t efficient at all (11 rushes for 26 yards). 

Fantasy owners might expect a bigger workload for Dobbins going forward, but I still see this as a split backfield, and with Dobbins not likely to be that efficient ever again, his week 1 performance is a one-week outlier to me. He still might be startable some weeks, but he might have already had his best fantasy showing of 2024.

Stevenson looked set to split the New England backfield with Antonio Gibson this season, but got 28 touches to Gibson’s seven in week 1. Stevenson rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown on 25 attempts and added six receiving yards on three catches and targets. Gibson’s seven rushing attempts went for 18 yards.

While I expect Gibson to get work every week, I expect Stevenson to serve as the workhorse, so this isn’t a one-week outlier to me. I’d target Stevenson before his value gets too high.

Wide Receivers

Jayden Reed, Jameson Williams and Rashee Rice are three wide receivers I want to discuss this week.

Reed was the best PPR receiver in week 1. He went for 138 receiving yards and a touchdown on four catches and six targets, while adding a 33-yard rushing touchdown.

The injury to Jordan Love complicates Reed’s fantasy outlook, as does the Packers’ loaded room of skill position players, but Reed looked like the top playmaker in week 1. 

I think he’s definitely worth rostering and playing in the right matchups, but I’d say it’s too early to make a call on his week 1 showing being an outlier or not. I don’t think he’ll produce that much most weeks, but he still very well could average 75+ yards a week, which is great fantasy value, especially when you add in some scores.

Williams was dynamic as well in week 1. He had 121 receiving yards and a touchdown on five catches and nine targets, along with a 13-yard rush.

He’s a big play threat who simply hasn’t been on the field enough in his career. Williams will be a big-time waiver wire target this week, and absolutely should be. Like Reed, Williams won’t be this great each week, but you also should absolutely be targeting him in fantasy leagues. It’s a one-week outlier from a fantasy score perspective, but I still see him as a starting option in the right matchups.

Rice was great on Thursday night, catching seven of his nine targets for 103 yards.

Travis Kelce is usually named the go-to target in the Chiefs’ passing game, but that honor might be going to Rice now. I don’t think he will average 100+ yards this season, but I do think he’ll remain the top target in the passing game, so this wasn’t a one-game outlier.

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely, Brock Bowers and Colby Parkinson are three tight ends I want to discuss.

Likely broke out in week 1, catching nine of his 12 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. He outperformed teammate Mark Andrews and was easily the top fantasy TE in week 1.

There’s room in the Ravens’ offense for another playmaker to step up, but I’m not sold yet on Likely. He’ll be added in probably every fantasy league this week that he wasn’t already owned in, and I’d encourage you to add Likely as well.

I just don’t see him being able to replicate those kinds of numbers much this season. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a starting tight end, but I think he’s less likely to stand out going forward than a lot of the other players in this story.

Bowers had a strong NFL debut, catching six of his eight passes for 58 yards.

The Raiders’ offense also needs playmakers to step up, and there’s no reason to think Bowers couldn’t be one of those guys. He could be a good short/medium passing option for Gardner Minshew, making Bowers a good PPR option. I think Bowers is here to stay as a fantasy asset.

Parkinson had a decent showing in week 1, catching four of his five targets for 47 yards. After a weak showing from fantasy tight ends, he’ll be a decent waiver wire option.

Parkinson’s stock got a little bump after it was announced that Puka Nacua would be placed on the injured reserve list. I think Parkinson is capable of putting up respectable fantasy numbers at least for the next month, so I don’t view his week 1 showing as an outlier.

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