Will Carolina Move on from Bryce Young After His Benching? Scenarios, Draft Pick Implications of a Trade

After the Panthers benched Bryce Young, the future in Carolina for the former top pick is murky. There are recent examples that show us what it could look like if Young ends up elsewhere before 2025.

Things have gone poorly for Bryce Young in the NFL. Like, really, really bad. It was announced Monday that the Panthers will bench last year’s top pick while stressing that he is still the quarterback of the future.

Andy Dalton will start in the meantime, and while he is a capable quarterback, he’s not going to step in and produce high-level quarterback play. Young will likely get a few weeks to clear his head before stepping back into the lineup; things will probably look much brighter if he plays against Washington in Week 7.

In the long run, though, this is catastrophic to Young’s chances of being Carolina’s franchise quarterback. He can bounce back and become a good quarterback; a lot of good QBs struggled in their first few years. Things are moving faster than ever, though, and teams aren’t willing to give first-round picks five years to prove they can do it.

If the Panthers finish with the worst record, as it looks like they could, they will have their choice of quarterback prospects expected to go early in the first round. Two bad years from Young won’t stop them from selecting their next hopeful star.

That would probably signal the end of Young’s time with the team. Multiple former first-round picks were traded for peanuts this offseason because their respective teams decided to send them elsewhere rather than hold onto them as backup options. That trend would place Young in a backup role next year on a different team.

I began thinking about what the Panthers could get in return if they did trade Young, either this offseason or before the trade deadline this season. Let’s start by looking at what previous first-round quarterbacks returned in trade after losing their starting jobs, then we’ll compare trading Young now versus next offseason.

Recently Traded First-Round Quarterbacks

Three quarterbacks drafted in the first round in 2018 were traded before their rookie contracts expired, so that seems like a good place to start. There was a similar occurrence this offseason with 2022 draftees; those two draft classes make up the majority of our sample here.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns to Carolina Panthers

Browns’ Return: Conditional fifth-round pick that could become a fourth

Cleveland decided to go all in on Deshaun Watson after Mayfield regressed in 2021 following a playoff appearance in 2020. That decision has looked like a complete bust given Watson’s struggles; imagine Mayfield playing with Cleveland’s talented roster…

Sam Darnold, New York Jets to Carolina Panthers

Jets’ Return: Second-round, fourth-round and sixth-round picks

This is the type of trade that seems reasonable for a former top-10 pick, but the Panthers would never do this deal now, even without knowing how things would play out. The value of many veterans has fallen in recent years, even quarterbacks who showed competence at times in the past. Darnold would never fetch a second-round pick today after how he played in New York.

Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals to Miami Dolphins

Cardinals’ Return: Second-round and fifth-round picks

Rosen only lasted one season in Arizona, as his team had the top pick the following year and drafted Kyler Murray. This might be closest to Young’s situation if things play out as I'm projecting, as a team with a top-10 drafted player gets another shot at a star after being underwhelmed by the incumbent QB.

Looking back at the return, it’s just like the Darnold situation: Miami would never give up a second-round pick for a guy like Rosen in today’s NFL.

Zach Wilson, New York Jets to Denver Broncos

Jets’ Return: Sixth-round pick (while giving up a seventh)

Now we start getting into the territory where I see Young’s value eventually landing in a presumed trade. Wilson was done with a capital DONE in New York and would have been released. The Broncos gave up as little as possible, a late-round pick swap, to see if he had anything to show in a new location; it doesn’t look like that’s the case.

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers to Dallas Cowboys

49ers’ Return: Fourth-round pick

Lance never really got a shot, as he was injured in the second game of his first season starting (and second season overall). Brock Purdy stepped in (after another injury to Jimmy Garoppolo) and secured the starting job; it was a real Wally Pipp story for Lance.

A complete unknown, San Francisco got a little value for Lance while the Cowboys paid a modest price to see if they could mine anything from a former top-three pick. Nothing so far, but Lance won’t turn 25 until the offseason and could have suitors as he becomes a free agent.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears to Pittsburgh Steelers

Bears’ Return: Conditional sixth-round pick that could become a fourth

This is another Young-esque situation, as Fields was starting for the Bears before they lucked into one of the top quarterback prospects in years thanks to a trade the previous season. Fields’ middling work wasn’t going to stop the Bears from selecting Caleb Williams, and the team decided to do right by the player and send him somewhere he had a chance to play.

In the scenario I laid out above, Young would fall victim to the exact same situation, being replaced by a newer, shinier model at the top of the draft.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots to Jacksonville Jaguars

Patriots’ Return: Sixth-round pick

The Pats were going to take their quarterback of the future in the draft, so there was no place for Jones. Rather than keeping him as a backup, the team upgraded to veteran Jacoby Brissett who has started the first two games of the season. Hey, a sixth rounder isn’t nothing.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers to Philadelphia Eagles

Steelers’ Return: Third-round pick and two seventh-round picks (while giving up a fourth)

This return may look better than it actually is: The Steelers picked up two extra seventh rounders, but they only swapped mid-round picks to move up from the fourth to the third. The value is probably equivalent to a fifth- or sixth-round pick, like Jones returned.

There are a lot of parallels between Pickett and Young, as both struggled mightily early in their careers with hopes they would develop into better players. It didn’t happen for Pickett, and the team shipped him out after his second season. Young is firmly in Pickett territory.

What Could Carolina Get for Young?

Something between the Lance return and the Jones return seems like the sweet spot: a mid- to late-round pick between the fourth and seventh rounds. There is value to an acquiring team, as they get the chance to see what they can pull from the guy who was the top overall pick a few years ago.

Young has at least some NFL-level talent, so the team who would add Young in a theoretical trade could expect a backup quarterback at worst. The monetary cost wouldn’t be negligible the way it is with later picks, as Young is set to count more than $10 million against the salary cap each of the next two seasons.

That’s nothing for a starting quarterback, but it’s well above the average for a backup. For comparison, Jones has a cap hit of less than $3 million this season, and Pickett combines to account for less than $5 million over the next two years. Teams against the cap aren’t going to be excited about acquiring Young for any draft compensation because of his contract as the top overall pick.

That also brings down the return the Panthers can expect. If Carolina is clearly taking their new franchise passer, teams investigating a trade aren’t going to be eager to drive up the cost; they can draft their own quarterback in the sixth round who will make less than 1/10th of what Young does. The team that conceivably trades for Young would have to see significantly more value than anyone else to go above a late-round pick.

Could Carolina Move Young Now?

Here’s what got me thinking about this topic even before Young was benched. After two solid years of seeing him play poorly, Young’s trade value will be as low as could possibly be. If the Panthers moved on from him this week, prospective trade partners would have seen less than 20 games from Young, all surrounded by severely sub-par talent.

It would be easier for a team to talk themselves into his potential now; Carolina would miss out on the last four months of trying to turn Young around, but they would make their future plans clear and save money along the way. Any draft capital recouped would just be a bonus.

A team like the Giants or Titans, who have watched Daniel Jones and Will Levis look lost at times, would be intriguing options, as they could both conceivably be in the market to draft a quarterback this offseason. Young would be a chance to acquire a quarterback for a trivial draft pick so the team could focus their high 2025 first rounder on a player to help support that QB; if things don’t go right, they can always draft a quarterback the next year with a better roster.

Most Likely Outcome

Young will probably stay in Carolina until at least the end of the season, at which time the team will re-evaluate things and see where they stand. Given the recent trend of failed early picks, he would likely be moved for late draft capital if the team decides to go a different direction.

Young would have the chance to fight for a job eventually, the way Mayfield, another former top pick, was able to in Tampa Bay. In a league that moves on from players and coaches as quickly as they sign them, though, it would be an uphill batter for Young to work back from that fate.

His best chance of success is to take his time out of the starting lineup to watch tape, work on his technique, and do whatever else he can to try to make it in Carolina. This team drafted Young and has a lot invested in him, so they will work to help him succeed as much as possible. If he ends up as just another guy on a different roster, it will be harder to stand out and/or have the support of the front office.

My best guess is that Young doesn’t put it all together and is fighting for a job elsewhere in 2025 after being traded for something like a conditional sixth-round pick.

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