Fantasy Football Week 3 Start/Sit: Rachaad White & J.K. Dobbins vs. Brian Robinson, Zack Moss, Carson Steele

Two weeks into the season, there are always two types of players that present the hardest start/sit decisions: Late-drafted players who have performed surprisingly well and early-drafted players who have disappointed. Can you trust the small sample size performances, or should you stick with preseason ADP?

This week, fantasy managers are clearly grappling with these problems at the running back position. Two of the most popular players in our Fantasy Football Start/Sit Tool exemplify these two archetypes. J.K. Dobbins was a late-round pick but has been on fire through two weeks, while Rachaad White was drafted early but has struggled. In this article, I’ll break down whether to start these two running backs over each other or other RB2 options. 

Looking for more help with your toughest fantasy football Start/Sit decisions? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Start/Sit Tool!

J.K. Dobbins vs. Rachaad White

Let’s start with the two protagonists of this article. Despite their preseason ADPs being rounds apart, managers are very split on whether to start Dobbins or White this week. The Start/Sit Tool reports that 21.8% of managers are starting Dobbins while benching White, while 24.5% are making the opposite decision (a further 46.3% are starting both, while a lucky few have enough RB depth to bench both). 

Looking at both individually, Dobbins has been excellent through his first two weeks in a Chargers uniform. While many expected him to be inefficient in his return from an Achilles injury, he leads the league by far in rush yards over expected per attempt at an absurd 5.16 (per NextGenStats). 

It is worth noting that he has had two relatively soft matchups to start the season, taking on the Raiders and Panthers. This week’s matchup with the Steelers will likely be tougher sledding. He also hasn’t actually been the Chargers’ lead back: Dobbins has seen two fewer rushing attempts than Gus Edwards; he has just been leagues more efficient with his touches. If that workload split continues in a tougher matchup this week, he could certainly disappoint. However, an expanded workload combined with his insane efficiency could lead to another big week for Dobbins, who currently ranks as the overall RB5.  

White, on the other hand, has been one of the least efficient high-volume backs in the league through two weeks. He ranks third-worst in rush yards vs. expected, gaining on average nearly two full yards less than he “should.” As a result, he has just 49 yards on 25 attempts, under 2.0 yards per carry. In Week 1, White was able to salvage decent value with six receptions for 75 yards — in Week 2, he caught just one pass for five yards, resulting in a miserable fantasy outing. 

Rookie RB Bucky Irving has also cut into White’s workload and been more efficient than the veteran while doing it. However, White has still been the Buccaneers’ clear lead back, and he has a good matchup this week as Tampa Bay is favored by six points against the Broncos. 

This is a tough call. Normally, I recommend trusting situation over talent at the running back position. However, the efficiency gap has been so massive that rolling out White over Dobbins straight up feels bad. Even still, that’s what I’m going to recommend here. If it was just the matchup or just the volume, I’d back Dobbins. But in a better matchup and with more projectable volume in both the run and pass games, White has to be the play. It might not be pretty, but he provides, at the very least, a hopefully higher floor. 

Start: Rachaad White

J.K Dobbins vs. Brian Robinson

So far, Brian Robinson has excelled in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. In Week 1, he didn’t see too much work on the ground (12 carries) but added a rushing TD and 49 receiving yards on three receptions for a very solid outing. In Week 2, he lost the peripheral production but simply ate in the rushing game, racking up 133 yards on 17 carries.

While he hasn’t been as efficient as Dobbins (no one has), Robinson has been very efficient on the ground. He has posted 1.91 yards over expected per carry, the third most in the league. Like Dobbins, he has a potentially bad matchup with the Bengals, although the 0-2 Bengals have actually been an average matchup for opposing running backs so far. 

However, what separates Robinson from Dobbins is projectable volume. While Dobbins has been splitting fairly evenly with Gus Edwards, Robinson is the clear lead back over Austin Ekeler for the Commanders. For that reason, Robinson has to be the play.

Start: Brian Robinson

Rachaad White vs. Brian Robinson

In fact, I’d back Robinson over White as well. I was very tempted to pick Dobbins over White, and Robinson is like Dobbins with a more guaranteed role. Volume was the key advantage that put White over Dobbins, so taking it away makes Robinson the play. 

Start: Brian Robinson

J.K. Dobbins vs. Zack Moss

Moss has started slow, along with the rest of the Bengals’ offense. But he has quietly seen a very solid workload. His 75.2% snap share ranks sixth among all RBs, and he has out-carried fellow RB Chase Brown 21 to seven. 

Efficiency-wise, Moss has been relatively mediocre: slightly below expectations but certainly not as bad as White. The Bengals also have a good matchup this week against the Commanders, who have been playing fast-paced football (an absurd 52% no-huddle rate) and bad defense (31st ranked by PFF). According to Vegas, Cincinnati has a massive 27.5-point team total this week, and Moss should be heavily involved in that. With that in mind, I’m trusting him over Dobbins. 

Start: Zack Moss

Rachaad White vs. Zack Moss

Once again, I'd go with Moss over White as well. Moss has a similar workload projection to White, easily better efficiency numbers, and is on the offense with the higher total. White may see more receptions, but they actually rank very similarly in terms of route participation so far this season (White is at 57% while Moss is at 51%). Moss is the pick again.

Start: Zack Moss

Rachaad White vs. Carson Steele

It’s very difficult to know what to expect from the Chiefs’ backfield with Isiah Pacheco sidelined. Personally, I believe that Steele will take the lead role. However, Samaje Perine will also be involved, and Keaontay Ingram could mix in. There’s also a real chance that Andy Reid simply decides to abandon the run and put the ball in Patrick Mahomes’ hands 50 times. 

That makes Steele a very risky play for this week against the Falcons. Even with how inefficient he’s been, White is safer to put into your lineup. Unless you’re looking for pure ceiling (Steele could run away with the lead role and/or score a couple touchdowns), play White.

Start: Rachaad White

J.K. Dobbins vs. Carson Steele

As much as it’s tempting to roll out the potential Chiefs RB1, I’m also going to go with Dobbins over Steele. After all, the main issue with Dobbins is question marks about his role. Steele has those in abundance, and he hasn’t shown the production that Dobbins has so far this season. 

As much as we’re hoping for Steele to have the lead job over Perine, Dobbins could also claim the lead spot over Edwards. Given that both have uncertain workloads, I’ll trust the player who has shown that he can score points even on limited touches. 

Start: J.K. Dobbins