Should You Add Josh Downs, Jonathon Brooks, Cedric Tillman, Other Dropped Fantasy Football Players?

Oftentimes, the best pickup of a fantasy football season isn’t a player who went undrafted. Instead, it’s someone who was originally selected or added early in the season but later dropped by an impatient manager after a bad week or two. It’s important to keep an eye on players being dropped in your leagues, but sometimes valuable players can slip through the cracks.

Luckily, the Fantasy Assistant is here to help. The Fantasy Assistant uses Predictive Analytics to calculate Expected Drop Interest (EDI) for every player each week. EDI is an estimation of the percentage of leagues in which a player will be or has been dropped each week. If you sync your fantasy league, you will be able to see which of those players have become available in your particular league. Here are this week’s leaders in EDI:

    

After suffering a shoulder injury in Week 12, Josh Downs leads the way by a mile with a 35% EDI. He is followed up by one of the quietest massive busts of the season, then a bunch of former waiver options heading back where they started. Let’s break down which of these players are worth double-checking for in your fantasy football leagues. 

WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

Downs has already been declared a long shot to play in Week 13, as he is week-to-week with a shoulder injury. At this time of the season, there’s a real chance his fantasy year is over. If he misses four weeks, his first week back would be the fantasy football championship — would you trust him in that situation? 

With that said, I wouldn’t let Downs sit on waivers just yet. Despite the injury (and QB situation), he is one of the most talented young receivers in the league. Until we get confirmation that his injury will keep him out for multiple weeks, he’s probably worth holding onto outside of particularly shallow leagues.

RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers

After 12 long weeks of waiting, Jonathan Brooks finally made his NFL debut on Sunday. He played five snaps and carried the ball twice for a grand total of seven yards. On the one hand, holding him this long to give up after one game seems like a mistake. On the other hand, the chances of Brooks overtaking Chuba Hubbard are essentially null at this point. In the best-case scenario (barring injury), he will be the 1B rusher in one of the league’s worst offenses. I won’t be chasing the rookie on waivers outside of particularly deep leagues. 

TE Will Dissly, Los Angeles Chargers

Last week, when Dissly was the hottest pickup on the block, I argued he wasn’t worth adding. His Week 12 was actually slightly encouraging, as he posted his highest route participation rate of the last five weeks … but it was still just 68%. Unless you’re desperate for TE help, Dissly can be left on the waiver wire.

WR Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns

Now we get to someone who is absolutely worth adding if they have been dropped in your league. Tillman has slowed down over the last few weeks, but he is still averaging 13.0 Half-PPR points per game on a 20% target share, a 29% yards share, and a 23% first-read across five games without Amari Cooper. That’s a profile to spend up for if he lands on waivers in your league.

WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

After some pretty firm takes on the last three players, I don’t feel as passionately either way about Johnston. His drop-filled Monday Night Football performance was embarrassing, but he has been a decent flex option for most of the season. 

However, I’m a firm believer that holding flex-level receivers is one of the worst possible uses of a fantasy football bench slot, especially at this time of the year. If QJ has a short path to your lineup (which he might — he’s not a terrible option with how Justin Herbert has been playing), add him. Otherwise, leave him on waivers. 

WR Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers

With the rest of the 49ers’ weapons healthy, Pearsall is the fifth option in San Francisco’s offense. And that offense suddenly looks much worse, missing both of its most important players in Trent Williams and Brock Purdy. The rookie has some appeal as an almost-handcuff to both Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel, but that isn’t enough to make him worth rostering outside of the deepest of leagues. Don’t bother checking your waivers for him.

WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

The Packers’ WR situation has been a nightmare for fantasy managers all season. Watson in particular has been very boom-or-bust — both of his two best performances of the season were immediately followed by games of 1.0 or fewer fantasy points. 

Overall, Watson is like a better version of Johnston — there are plenty of situations and formats in which he would be a valid flex play for this week, even coming off a miserable Week 12. We know he is a big-play threat, and Romeo Doubs being out will likely help his route and target shares. But if Watson is more than one player removed from making your lineup, he’s not worth holding. It’s hard to picture a scenario where he forces his way into lineups, and you want players who can do that (aka handcuff running backs) on your bench at this time of year. 

TE David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Njoku’s situation is very comparable to that of his teammate Tillman. Yes, he is coming off an unproductive outing. But I think we can give him a pass for one low score, especially one that came in a blizzard. Overall, Njoku is averaging 9.5 Half-PPR points per game on 6.8 targets since Jameis Winston took over for Cleveland. At a position where those 9.5 points would be the fifth-highest average in the league, he is more than worth rostering. Make sure he wasn’t dropped by an impatient manager in your league. 

RB Audric Estime, Denver Broncos

Last week, in this very same article, I said it was too early to give up on Estime, who was just one week removed from easily leading the Broncos in carries. This week, coming off a game in which he played five snaps and recorded three touches, I’ll happily admit I was wrong. Estime is not worth holding outside of super-deep leagues.  

QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans 

On the one hand, I’ve been a C.J. Stroud hater since before the season even started. And he has proven me right, with just three top-12 finishes all season. However, this seems like an odd week to drop Stroud. He is coming off of one of those three QB1 outings and heading into an excellent matchup with the terrible Jaguars’ defense, who he torched for 345 yards once already this season. Especially with Nico Collins back healthy, this sets up as a week where Stroud should have fantasy success. With that said, his only value is as a weekly streamer. If you have a better QB option for Week 13, don’t bother adding Stroud — a solid score on your bench isn’t worth anything. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.