Finding the Top Week 5 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Donatyvion Wicks, Kareem Hunt, Tucker Kraft

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

This is a much more exciting week than the last few, as we have multiple players at or above a 50% expected waiver interest. For the most part, these players deserve the hype. Get ready to open up those FAAB wallets, as this week’s waivers are hot!

Top Predicted Week 5 Fantasy Football Adds

WR Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers (58% EWI)

I already broke down my thoughts on Wicks in this week’s Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Waiver Wire article, so I’ll keep this one brief. I’m biased, as I came into the season a Wicks stan. But Wicks has, in my eyes, always had the talent, and now he’s going to get the opportunity with Christian Watson sidelined. 

Wicks has struggled with drops a bit to start the season, but he easily leads the Packers in targets per route run. Now that he’s on the field, I don’t think he’s coming back off. Wicks deserves to be the hottest waiver add for this week’s run. 

RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (51% EWI)

If you’re more in need of running back help, Hunt is also a valid candidate to be your top target this week. I’m still suspicious of his ability to hold onto a large role long-term, as he was one of the least efficient backs in the league in 2024. But he is, for now, the clear lead early-down back in the Chiefs’ offense. That’s enough to make him a must-add and a viable flex play … although that’s what I said about Carson Steele last week, and we all know how that went.

TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (49% EWI)

Through the first three weeks of the season, Kraft firmly established himself as the Packers’ lead TE over Luke Musgrave. However, his usage still wasn’t great: He averaged just a 51% route participation rate and less than three targets a game. That changed in Week 4, as he saw nine targets on an 84% route participation rate, catching six for 53 yards and a touchdown.

It is worth noting that Kraft’s overall target share wasn’t actually much better in Week 4, at 13.0% compared to 11.8% over the first three weeks. He was a huge beneficiary of the fact that Jordan Love attempted 54 passes with the Packers trailing big early. With that said, that route participation jump is still real. If Kraft can stay that involved in this elite Packers offense, he could easily be a fringe TE1 given the state of the position.

WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (39% EWI)

Since his return in Week 3 from an ankle injury, Downs ranks second to only Cooper Kupp on the season with a massive 36% target per route run rate. In Week 4, that turned into a top-10 WR finish, as he caught eight passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. If anything, I’m surprised his EWI isn’t higher.

With that said, there are still some red flags with Downs. The biggest of these is that his breakout day came with Joe Flacco under center, not Anthony Richardson. While Richardson can do things no other NFL quarterback can, he has yet to show any sort of consistency in terms of accuracy. That makes him a bad fit for Downs, who relies on volume and underneath routes to produce. Downs’ elite target-earning ability makes him a must-add, but keep an eye on whether enough of those targets are catchable for him to be a startable option. 

RB Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens (33% EWI)

Four weeks into the season, Justice Hill is the RB29 in Half-PPR formats. He has gotten there almost entirely with his role in the receiving game, as he is averaging just 3.6 attempts for 14 yards a game on the ground. However, that receiving usage can provide real fantasy production, especially in any sort of PPR. On Sunday, Hill led the Ravens in targets (six) and receiving yards (78), also scoring a receiving touchdown. That was good enough for an RB1 finish for the week.

However, it’s very hard to rely on Hill. The Ravens rank dead last in the NFL with a pass rate 11.9% below expectation. Normally, that’s good news for an RB, but not Hill. Week 4 was an outlier in that Hill saw work despite the Ravens having a big lead, but the previous two weeks showed that he is a real candidate to get completely removed from the Ravens’ game plan in certain situations. 

With that in mind, this EWI is too high. Unlike most other fringe running backs, Hill has almost no contingent upside: His role would stay the same if Derrick Henry were injured. He’s only worth adding if you’re desperate for production in a PPR league. Even then, he’s risky unless the Ravens are projected to be playing from behind, which won’t happen often. 

QB Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers (32% EWI)

Sticking with the theme of AFC North players who are better when playing from behind, we have Justin Fields. After game-managing his way to three wins and just 14.2 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks of the season, Fields finally had to cut loose on Sunday. 

The result? Fields ran for two touchdowns, threw for 300 yards, and scored 30 fantasy points … in a Steelers loss. He also took four sacks and fumbled twice (one lost). Luckily, we in fantasy land don’t care about silly things like NFL wins and losses. Fields has shown before that he can be an elite fantasy producer without being a good NFL quarterback (and he does look better so far in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago).

Going forward, the Steelers are likely to have more games where they have to lean on Fields. Their defense is elite, but their first three matchups (Falcons, Chargers, and Broncos) were very soft. As long as he holds onto his starting job, Fields should push for QB1 status, so he deserves to be added in most leagues.