Week 5 Fantasy Football Quarterback Start/Sit: Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy and More
Three quarterbacks to start and three to consider benching in Week 5.
Quarterback is often the easiest position at which to find fantasy points, but not every streamer is created equal. While Justin Fields was set up to succeed against the Colts in Week 4, Bo Nix wasn’t going to put up numbers against the Jets (regardless of his skill level and the weather).
The level of a “good” or “bad” matchup matters in unison with the skill level of the quarterback in question. A guy like Nix only has fantasy value in the very best of circumstances, but Fields can be started in fantasy against more teams and still be expected to put up points.
Let’s go through three quarterbacks to start and three to consider sitting in Week 5 of the NFL season. I will ignore obvious players, like Lamar Jackson, and look more at the guys in the middle who are worthy of starting some weeks but not others.
Fantasy points and positional rankings from past weeks and seasons are from FantasyPros. I used defensive passing stats from NFL.com and our defensive fantasy rankings here at FantasySP to help determine the defenses that are best to target in Week 5.
Start
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
It’s been bad for Lawrence and the Jags. Like, really, really bad. Being 0-4 sucks, but it’s about more than just the results. Lawrence was supposed to be ascending to superstar status, brandished with a big new $200 million contract.
Instead, his 53.3% completion rate and 6.0 yards per attempt are the worst of his career, and Lawrence’s quarterback rating and QBR are worse than any year since his rookie season. He’s averaging 182.25 passing yards per game; Lawrence is averaging the most yards per rush of his career, but the volume would be his lowest ever at the current rate.
For every positive, there’s a negative. The team looks bad. It’s scary for their short- and long-term projection. It has also only been four games, and we need to slow down on burying Lawrence among the bodies of failed early picks.
This is still a guy who was one of the most heralded prospects of the past 20 years. He averaged 7.0 yards per pass in both 2022 and 2023 with a completion percentage over 65%. There’s a recent history of high-level play.
Indianapolis has allowed the sixth-most passing yards and seventh-most yards per attempt. Most important for our purpose, they have given up the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
This could be a nice game for Lawrence to start his way back to acceptable play. It’s more likely that he will play better moving forward than continue as one of the worst in the league, and he’s probably a fantasy free agent after his brutal start to the season.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Purdy has kept up his level of play as the 49ers had a somewhat bumpy first month. Christian McCaffrey is out for an undetermined amount of time; Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle both missed a game. San Fran is still second in offensive DVOA behind Buffalo.
Purdy is averaging 282.5 passing yards per game at 9.3 yards per attempt with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The 49ers are likely to keep chugging along as one of the best offenses in the league, especially if they can get healthy.
The matchup makes Purdy stand out even more, as the Cardinals have allowed the second-most passing yards per attempt and the highest completion percentage. They have also allowed the third-highest quarterback rating and are below average with interceptions and sacks.
Purdy is part of a deadly efficient offense and has a good matchup; there’s not much more to ask for to project fantasy value.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders
This is all about the matchup. Washington played decent pass defense against the Cardinals last week, holding Kyler Murray to 142 yards. The Commanders blew out Arizona, but the Cardinals curiously threw just 22 passes versus 32 rushing attempts (Murray had just one rush).
I believe more in the results of the past year-plus, when Washington had probably the worst pass defense in football. They are allowing the fourth-most yards per pass attempt this season and the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. This is a vulnerable squad.
Watson is another player who has disappointed after previous highs, though unlike Lawrence, Watson hasn’t had a good year since 2020. Even his biggest bandwagoners must be ready to bail by now, as Watson has played well below average quarterback since his return from a year-plus suspension/absence.
His rushing is the only thing keeping him from being a total fantasy dud. Watson has averaged nearly 4.5 fantasy points per game from rushing production. Losing those running points would drop him from QB19 in points per game to QB33; that’s like going from a low-end streamer to an infeasible fantasy player.
With the good matchup, Watson is on the streaming radar this week. He shouldn’t be started over a consistent fantasy QB, but if you need a fill-in for Jalen Hurts (on bye), you could do a lot worse than Watson in Week 5.
Sit
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets (in London)
Darnold has started the season as hot as anyone. The Vikings are 4-0 and look like one of the best teams in the league; they’ve beaten three good teams (and the Giants). It doesn’t seem like a fluke.
The defense is a big part of the equation, but Darnold is playing the best football of his career. He isn’t being dragged along by the D like the Trent Dilfers and Brad Johnsons of seasons past: Darnold is part of the reason this team is excelling.
He’s about to run into his toughest test, though. The Jets have allowed the second-least passing yards and third-least yards per attempt. They are sixth in quarterback rating allowed and tied for fourth in sacks.
The Jets had a very good defense last season and have continued that performance into 2024. They allowed Purdy to throw for 231 yards in Week 1, but no player has reached 200 passing yards since. Part of it is the matchups: Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, and Bo Nix aren’t to be confused with Pro Bowlers. New York has a history of shutting down the passing game, though, and will make things tougher for Darnold.
Darnold is more of a low-end QB1 this week. You might have a better option because you probably didn’t draft Darnold, so this is a chance to leave the Minnesota passer on the bench while playing a better matchup.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints
This is a scary one. Suggesting you not play Darnold, a guy who is on a hot streak but has a past of failure, is one thing; now I’m telling you to consider benching the best quarterback in football. I can understand if you ignore this advice.
Mahomes hasn’t been a fantasy star over the past year-plus, though, finishing as QB8 last season and sitting at QB16 after the first month. He hasn’t been better than QB14 in any week this season. That’s a major disappointment for a guy drafted among the top five fantasy QBs.
The Saints haven’t shut down passing games the way the Jets and Broncos have, but they are near average in yards allowed per attempt, third in interceptions, and tied for 10th in sacks. New Orleans has allowed the lowest quarterback rating to opposing QBs and the fourth-least fantasy points to the position.
Mahomes is more at risk of another middling finish than truly bottoming out. New Orleans has played well on defense, allowing 20 points only once (26 to Atlanta last week). Mahomes is missing multiple offensive weapons, including newly injured WR1 Rashee Rice.
There are a lot of things working against Mahomes and the Chiefs. With a tough opponent coming to town Monday night, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them have a slow offensive game as they try to grind out another win.
Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Minshew is just a streaming player, more of a low-level option on the right weeks. This is not one of those weeks. The Broncos have allowed the third-least passing yards and second-least yards per attempt
Denver’s defensive prowess is proven enough by the fact that they are 2-2 while harboring maybe the worst offense in football. The offenses they have faced aren’t necessarily star-studded, but the Broncos have held each of the Steelers, Bucs, and Jets below 10 points over the past three weeks.
On top of being a middling quarterback and facing a tough defense, Minshew was without top receiver Davante Adams last week, and he might miss Week 5 and/or be headed out of town, as the Raiders are fielding trade calls on their star pass catcher.
There’s too much working against Minshew for him to be in the mix this week. He has a very low floor in Denver.
#2024-fantasy-football #start-sit-decision
