Fantasy Football Week 16 Wide Receiver Start/Sit: Jauan Jennings, DK Metcalf, Xavier Worthy, Jerry Jeudy, Jayden Reed

Welcome to FantasySP’s Week 16 fantasy football wide receiver start/sit breakdown! As always, I’d like to start by taking a look back at last week’s results … which weren’t great. On the Start side, Jakobi Meyers, Adam Thielen, and Calvin Ridley all failed to crack double-digit Half-PPR points, although at least none of them killed your week (Ridley brought up the year at 7.5). Things were more mixed on the Sit side. DeAndre Hopkins scoring 6.1 is a result I will definitely take, while Jordan Addison’s 9.8 wasn’t great either. However, DeVonta Smith got in on the Eagles’ big passing-game revival with a 22.5-point explosion, finishing as the WR6 on the week.

Hopefully this week we can bounce back with some more consistent performances across the board. After all, it's the fantasy football semifinals, so every decision matters. And with 32 teams on bye, we have tons of options to pick from, meaning standards will be higher. Let’s get started!

For more help with your toughest Week 16 Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!

Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Start Week 16

Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers

After briefly looking like one of the breakout stars of the season, Jennings has slowed down dramatically recently, finishing outside the top 40 receivers in three of the last four weeks. However, we can make excuses for each of those bad games. One came in a snowstorm, one was with Brandon Allen under center, and the third featured one half of pouring rain and two halves of terrible Brock Purdy play.

Throughout it all, one thing that has remained constant is Jennings’ usage. He has seen at least a 21% target share in each of the last six weeks, with an elite average of 29%. In fact, Jennings ranks sixth among receivers in target share since Week 10, and he also boasts an excellent 35% air yards share. 

He’s got the usage, and I still think Jennings has the talent. Despite his recent down stretch, he ranks as PFF’s WR14 for the season, right in between Ja’Marr Chase and Mike Evans. His matchup with the Dolphins isn’t ideal at first glance, but Miami actually gives up an above-average number of points to receivers lined up out wide, where Jennings runs the majority of his routes. After last week’s attempt to get Deebo Samuel going failed miserably, Jennings is clearly the 49ers’ WR1. Fire him up with confidence. 

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

Like his NFC West counterpart, Metcalf has provided disappointing results in recent weeks. He has yet to post a top-30 weekly finish since his Week 11 return from an MCL injury, averaging just 7.6 Half-PPR points per game. However, Metcalf also mirrors Jennings in that he has still seen decent usage: a 20% target share and a 41% air yards share over his down stretch. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba is putting up far superior actual numbers, he and Metcalf actually rank very similarly in terms of expected points per game.

And this week is a perfect spot for Metcalf to experience some positive regression, as the Seahawks will be hosting the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense leads the league in schedule-adjusted points allowed to receivers, and it’s not even particularly close. If you’ve managed to survive Metcalf’s recent duds to make it to your league’s semifinal, don’t lose faith. He has a great shot to come through when it matters most this week. 

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

While my previous two Start picks were receivers who have disappointed lately, Worthy is coming on strong. Last week was his best fantasy outing since all the way back in Week 1, as he caught six of a team-high 11 targets for 46 yards, adding in 30 carries and a touchdown on the ground.

Worthy’s underlying numbers are also clearly trending in the right direction. After spending most of the season hovering around a 70% route participation rate, he set back-to-back career highs with 81% in Week 14 and 86% in Week 15. He has also seen at least a 14% target share in each of the Chiefs’ last five games, including a 28% target share last week. For a player who just needs one big play to have a solid outing, this much usage is all we need. As long as Patrick Mahomes is good to go for Sunday, the speedy rookie is Worthy of a starting spot in your Week 16 lineups.  

Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Sit Week 16

Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns

After he threw three interceptions on just 26 attempts before being benched against the Chiefs in Week 15, the Browns have made the decision to move away from Jameis Winston. Instead, they are turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a 2023 fifth-rounder out of UCLA. While this might be the right move for the Browns' long-term future, it is brutal for the fantasy value of Cleveland’s receivers, Jeudy included.

For all his flaws, Winston brought absolutely unprecedented levels of volume to the Browns’ passing attack. In the seven weeks where Winston played the majority of Cleveland’s offensive snaps, Jeudy averaged an absurd 115 air yards per game. DTR, who has averaged a putrid 2.9 yards per attempt across 34 attempts so far this season, is not going to provide anywhere near the same level of volume.

If you’re tempted to bet on Jeudy’s hot streak continuing, especially because of his excellent matchup with the Bengals’ defense, remember that we’ve already seen his results with sub-par QB play this season. In Weeks 1-6, with Deshaun Watson under center, Jeudy averaged just 7.1 Half-PPR points per game, including three finishes below 5.0 points. Of course, Watson was the worst quarterback in the league … but in his small sample so far this season, DTR has somehow been worse. Thompson-Robinson’s play has simply been too bad to stake your fantasy season on a receiver reliant on his passes. If you have any other options at all, Jeudy should be left on your bench this week.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

I came into the season doubting Jayden Reed, and I am happy to end it the same way. I don’t doubt the sophomore receiver’s talent, but he simply doesn’t see consistent enough usage to be a reliable fantasy option. Reed’s usage issues stem from the fact that the Packers, who have multiple other talented young receivers (and tight ends), are happy to use the 191-pound slot specialist only in three-receiver sets. He has run a grand total of three routes in two or one-receiver personnel so far this season. 

This means that Reed’s route share is hugely dependent on what personnel groupings Green Bay is leaning on in a specific game. In Week 14, when they turned to two-TE sets against the Bears, he posted just a 58% route participation rate. And of course, not playing in two-WR sets sets a hard ceiling on his participation rate: He has only gone above 70% once in the last five games. 

And you can’t see targets without being on the field, so it’s not surprising that Reed has just a 17% target share and a 15% air yards share for the season. Those numbers are even worse than they sound, given that Green Bay has the second-lowest pass rate in the entire league. Especially in a matchup that the Packers should win comfortably against the injured, floundering Saints, Reed will be hugely reliant on big plays and/or touchdowns to provide a solid outing. He has the talent to come through regardless, but I’d recommend putting your faith in someone who provides more of a volume-based floor.  

DeAndre Hopkins, Kansas City Chiefs + Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills

I’m listing this duo of veteran receivers together because they both have the exact same problem: routes. Since switching teams before the trade deadline, neither Hopkins nor Cooper has reached even a 65% route participation rate in their new homes. They are both trending in the wrong direction, too. Hopkins fell to a miserable 48% participation rate last week, and Cooper beat him out all the way down at 41%.

As I said with Reed, you can’t earn targets if you’re not on the field. Both of these players have actually posted very impressive numbers in terms of targets per route run on their new teams, but they still aren’t seeing consistent targets. Hopkins is at a 16% target share since joining the reigning champs, with just 6.4 targets per game. Cooper is even lower at 14% and coming off a game in which he didn’t see a single look. Again, the talent is here for these guys to have big outings. But volume is king, and they don’t have it. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.