Fantasy Football Week 5 D/ST Start/Sit: Patriots, Jets, Seahawks
Ted breaks down three defenses to start and three defenses to sit for Week 5's fantasy football action.
Welcome to this week’s fantasy football DST start/sit breakdown! Last week, I got some very solid results, with my three “Starts” averaging 7.7 points and three “Sits” averaging just 3.3. Hopefully I can keep that momentum going this week, although things are always tougher as we enter the bye-week season. As always, the key to DST start/sit decisions is matchups, matchups, matchups. Let’s get right into it!
For more help with your toughest Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!
Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 5
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
With what the Dolphins have shown us over the last two weeks, it makes no sense that the Patriots are projected to be started in under a quarter of leagues. Even if we include Miami's two games with Tua Tagovailoa, they rank last in EPA per play by a huge margin at a putrid -0.28. Tyler Huntley, who has been announced as the Dolphins' Week 5 starter, ranks third-worst in EPA per dropback at -0.27, only ahead of Bryce Young (RIP) and another Miami backup in Skylar Thompson.
It’s not just EPA, either. The Dolphins rank dead last with 11.3 points per game and are in the bottom seven in both yards and yards per play. Huntley doesn’t have the volume to qualify for passing leaderboards, but if he did, he’d rank dead last with 3.25 net yards per attempt. Despite a dominant performance in Week 1, the Patriots have been just average defensively. But that’s all they’ll need to be to put up a quality outing against the drowning Dolphins.
Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
The Seahawks are seeing a bit more steam than the Patriots, but they are still projected to be started in under half of leagues. To be fair, they were just absolutely dominated by the Lions’ offense on national television, giving up 42 points and not even forcing a single incompletion.
However, even with that abysmal game on their record, the Seahawks actually rank fourth in PFF Defense Grade for the season. They have given up the fourth-fewest yards per play and eighth-fewest total yards. That should be more than enough for Seattle to put up a solid outing against Daniel Jones and the Giants.
To be fair, New York has been surprisingly competent on the offensive end thus far this season, ranking only below average in most offensive stats. However, they still rank fourth-worst in points per game. Moreover, they will likely be without superstar rookie WR Malik Nabers and RB1 Devin Singletary this week. Those two players have accounted for 55% of the Giants' yards from scrimmage and five of their six touchdowns. With what was already a good matchup looking particularly juicy, the Seahawks’ D is a great option this week.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
This is the riskiest decision of the group, as the Raiders are undeniably a bad team. As things stand, they also look likely to be without their best defensive player, Maxx Crosby, for another week. It’s not too surprising that they are projected to be started in just 13.6% of leagues … but that number should still be higher.
After all, Vegas is fresh off putting up a very solid 10-point outing against the Browns. As terrible as Cleveland’s offense has been, the Broncos have been worse. They rank among the bottom six teams in points, yards, yards per play, and EPA per play. PFF has graded them as the single worst offense in the league. If you’re desperate for a defense this week, get the Raiders in your lineup.
Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 5
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders
I don’t know what 57% of fantasy leagues are thinking starting the Browns this week. The Commanders’ offense has been absolutely unstoppable, with a 0.29 EPA per play. (For context, the next best team, the Bills, are at just 0.18.) Yes, Washington has had good matchups, but it cannot be overstated how good their offense has looked. Over two-thirds of their drives have ended in scores; no other team is above even 58%.
Meanwhile, the Browns’ defense has regressed from an elite 2023 campaign. They have given up the sixth-fewest points per game but rank closer to average in most other key metrics. Even if Cleveland’s defense were still elite, I wouldn’t start them against these red-hot Commanders. As things are, they shouldn’t be near your lineup.
New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings
The Jets are in a similar situation to the Browns. Coming into the season with the consensus best defense in the league, their results have been just okay. They rank 15th in PFF Defense Grade, ninth-best in yards allowed per play, and 12th-best in points allowed. Solid, but not spectacular.
This week, the Jets travel to London to face the Vikings, who have been arguably the league’s best team through four weeks. They have scored the fourth-most points on the eighth-highest EPA per play in the league. Former Jet Sam Darnold has been hyper-efficient, with the second-highest yards per attempt among starters.
Despite all this, the Jets are still projected to start in over three-quarters of fantasy leagues. It’s not just managers not paying attention, either, as Fantayspros’ consensus rankings have them as the DST6 for Week 5. If you’re in a pinch or just don’t want to drop the Jets long-term, you can start them. But if you’re trying to win this week, there are almost certainly better options on your waiver wire.
Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers
The Bears are another team being massively overrated by consensus rankings, as they are ranked third overall among defenses for Week 3. Fantasy experts must have missed the news that Bryce Young was benched, as the Panthers are simply not the same team since Andy Dalton took over.
The Red Rifle ranks third in PFF Passing Grade and sixth in EPA per dropback. With him under center, the Panthers are averaging 30 points per game on over 300 yards. Yes, those two games were against the Bengals and Raiders, who both have worse defenses than the Bears. But Dalton also dropped 27 points and 361 passing yards on the Seahawks in his lone 2023 start. There’s real reason to believe that 36-year-old Andy Dalton makes this Panthers offense a legitimate threat. With valid streaming options (including the three listed above) available in most leagues, it’s not worth risking the Bears’ defense this week.
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