Finding the Top Week 6 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Tank Bigsby, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jalen Tolbert

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

We have one clear leader in EWI this week, as Tank Bigbsy has more than double the next skill position player at a whopping 71%. After the sophomore running back, we have a lot of receivers trending upward, including the most surprising 27-year-old in the league. Let’s jump right in! 

Top Predicted Week 6 Fantasy Football Adds

RB Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (71% EWI)

Tank absolutely deserves this level of EWI, which projects to leave him rostered in all leagues. He’s not without red flags: His elite efficiency numbers are buoyed by a few long plays, and the fact that he out-touched Travis Etienne is reportedly more due to Etienne’s shoulder injury than a conscious coaching decision. But Bigsby is the most efficient rusher in the league by far through five weeks, and his role just keeps expanding. He absolutely needs to be rostered everywhere. 

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs (34% EWI)

Prior to the season, Smith-Schuster was cut by the Patriots, who have arguably the worst WR room in the league. On Monday night, he went out and caught seven of eight targets for 130 yards. With Rashee Rice sidelined, Smith-Schuster joined Travis Kelce as one of  Patrick Mahomes’ top two targets in the Chiefs’ new dink-and-dunk offense.

It’s worth noting that JuJu is not serving as a one-to-one replacement for Rice. In his three healthy weeks, Rice had a 76.9% route participation rate and a 31.5% target share. For Smith-Schuster on Monday, those numbers were just 59.1% and 20.5%. Still, a 20% target share from Patrick Mahomes is a 20% target share from Patrick Mahomes. Whoever plays the underneath role in this offense is clearly going to eat, especially in PPR formats. Right now, that’s JuJu, so he’s worth adding. (By the way, can you believe that he's still only 27 years old?) 

WR Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys (32% EWI)

As I discussed in my Week 6 Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Breakdown, Tolbert is a no-brainer add. With Brandin Cooks on IR following surgery to remove an infection from his knee, the third-year WR is locked in as the Cowboys’ WR2. 

Tolbert’s per-route metrics have been just mediocre to start 2024, which continues a trend of his whole career. However, that may not matter as long as he keeps posting an 80%+ route participation rate on the fifth-most pass-happy team in the league. Don’t overspend on Tolbert, but he is a more than valid waiver candidate in deep or even average-sized leagues. 

WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts (23% EWI)

EWI is an incredible metric for analyzing consensus opinions, but that doesn’t mean I always agree with it. This week, Pierce is the top player being overrated by EWI. Yes, he is the WR17 in half-PPR leagues five weeks into the season. But he has three or fewer targets in four out of five games. For the season, he has the same number of targets as Jordan Akins, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, and Mack Hollins. Even with Anthony Richardson (and now Joe Flacco) chucking bombs, he’s not going to keep catching deep touchdowns with that level of usage. 

That’s without even mentioning the fact that Adonai Mitchell is breathing down his neck. Since Josh Downs returned to the lineup, Mitchell has been the odd man out in the Colts’ receiver room. But the second-round rookie has been a much better target earner than Pierce on a per-route basis, with a 31% target per route run rate more than double Pierce’s 14%. With just a 12% target share for the season and his role potentially in jeopardy, Pierce is nothing more than a desperation boom-or-bust flex play for deep leagues.     

WR Ray-Ray McCloud, Atlanta Falcons (23% EWI)

The third receiver on this list coming off a big performance in prime time (this isn’t a coincidence, by the way — EWI consistently shows that players who break out with everyone watching have more interest on waivers than those who do it on Sunday morning), McCloud is also slightly overrated by this EWI number. 

Although McCloud had a productive outing on Thursday night, that was largely thanks to the fact that Kirk Cousins attempted 58 passes, the most of any QB so far this season. McCloud’s target share in Week 5, 15.2%, was lower than his season average of 17.4%, which also isn't great. On the bright side, the Falcons have become more pass-happy with each given week, and the former 49er is their clear third target (after Darnell Mooney and Drake London ... sorry, Kyle Pitts). In deep PPR leagues, McCloud could push for flex consideration. But in most formats, he’s not worth adding, even if he has the coolest name in the league.

RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (21% EWI)

After two straight overrated players, here is a waiver option whose EWI should be higher, as the rookie out of Purdue is coming off an excellent breakout game. With Devin Singletary out with an injury, Tracy carried the ball 18 times for 129 yards, gaining positive yards on every single one of his attempts. 

Singletary will be back, and Eric Gray was annoyingly involved in passing situations and on the goal line during Week 5. However, a rookie in a relatively unstable backfield putting up this kind of performance is essentially a must-add. If Tracy can claim the RB1 role in New York and maintain this efficiency, his upside is immense. That’s enough to make him worth a pickup in the majority of formats. 

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