Caleb Williams Excels in London: Is He Becoming a Fantasy Starter?
This year's top overall pick has had two straight big games. Is it time to look at him as a budding fantasy star?
Caleb Williams had his second straight big game Sunday morning, completing 23 of 29 passes (79.3%) for 226 yards with four touchdowns and an interception. He added 56 rushing yards on four attempts for good measure.
Last week, he had 304 yards on 69% passing with two touchdowns and no interceptions, chipping in 34 rushing yards. Some were ready to bury Williams after a few weeks because he wasn’t an instant phenom (especially while Jayden Daniels excelled in Washington). Now that he’s turned it around, he’s on the way to superstardom, right?
Well, maybe, but we as football fans overreact to everything in small samples. Williams was never as bad as things looked right away, and he’s not as good as his best moments. He’s a rookie quarterback who will see his performance ebb and flow, dictated often by matchups.
The matchups have been in his favor recently. Week 5 involved the Carolina Panthers, maybe the worst team in the league, coming to town, and Week 6 took place in London against the Jaguars. Jacksonville quite possibly has the worst pass defense among all teams.
Williams’ first two opponents, the Titans and Texans, have been two of the best pass defenses over the first month-plus; that helps explain why he started so slow in his debut games. Williams seems firmly in the middle among fantasy quarterbacks, a good play against the weaker teams but probably better on your bench against better defenses.
With that being the case, it’s important to look ahead at Chicago’s schedule to determine when Williams will be a useful fantasy player. The near future looks bright, so Williams might be a guy to consider targeting if you need a quarterback.
Upcoming Schedule
Week 8 @ Washington Commanders
Week 9 @ Arizona Cardinals
Week 10 vs. New England Patriots
Those are three teams to target. The Bears have their bye next week after returning from London then follow with these three games. Before Week 6’s results, those teams were 10th, sixth, and seventh, respectively, in most pass yards per attempt allowed.
Each team also allowed a big performance in Week 6:
- Lamar Jackson had 323 passing yards and 40 rushing yards against the Commanders
- Jordan Love threw for 258 yards and four touchdowns against the Cardinals
- C.J. Stroud only had 192 yards, but he threw three touchdowns as his team dominated the Patriots
Williams is going to face three very giving teams coming out of the bye, making him a valuable fantasy player who may be available given his week off.
After Week 10
Week 11 vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 12 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 13 @ Detroit Lions
Week 14 @ San Francisco 49ers
Week 15 @ Minnesota Vikings
Week 16 vs. Detroit Lions
Week 17 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 18 @ Green Bay Packers
That’s a tough stretch of games for the Bears after Week 10. Things will look different by that time, and we don’t know who among these teams will be successful on defense between now and then.
The Vikings (sixth) were the only teams in this group in the top 10 in least pass yards per attempt allowed prior to Week 6, with the Seahawks (14th) and 49ers (15th) the only others better than average. While the games look tough, the defenses might not be as daunting as they seem at first glance.
After the stretch of better matchups, Williams may still be a fantasy option some weeks based on the defenses he faces. His own play would theoretically improve by that point, which would make Williams a good fantasy player the rest of the season.
Adding Caleb Williams
If he’s a free agent, it’s easy enough: Williams is worth picking up and adding to your roster. If you have a weekly starter, like Baltimore’s Jackson, then Williams would be something of a wasted roster spot, as he’d only play on Jackson’s bye (Week 14).
A lot depends on your roster because Williams is just a good fantasy player, not a great one. Any owner who is streaming quarterbacks or waited until later in the draft to grab a QB could probably improve their team by adding Williams, especially for the next month.
Being he is entering his bye, some owners will likely drop Williams, especially if they grabbed him just for the great matchup with the Jaguars. Pounce, in that case (pun intended as related to the Jags, but we’re actually talking about the Bears…do bears pounce?).
Williams could likely be acquired in a trade for a low-level RB or WR, especially if the owner who has him is short at a position and/or dealing with byes. Don’t overpay, as Williams is a part-time fantasy starter, but Chuba Hubbard, Jauan Jennings, or Wan'Dale Robinson would be a reasonable return, especially if you’re in a deeper league.
Quarterback streaming is as easy as any position in fantasy football. You’re not coming out ahead by acquiring Williams for someone like Detroit’s Jameson Williams, for example.
Caleb Williams is a quarterback worthy of a spot on your roster, especially in Weeks 8-10. Don’t break the bank to get him, but Williams is a productive QB in the right situation and is surrounded by good skill players.
