Finding the Top Week 7 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Demario Douglas, Drake Maye, Kimani Vidal

Ted takes a look at this week's hottest fantasy football waiver adds, including Demario Douglas, Kimani Vidal, and Drake Maye.

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

This is a relatively calm week of waivers. Last week’s leader, Tank Bigsby, had nearly double the EWI of this week's leader, Demario Douglas, who is also the only player above 30%. Still, there are some interesting names to note, including a couple who should never have been on waivers in the first place. Let’s break them down. 

Top Predicted Week 7 Fantasy Football Adds

WR Demario Douglas, New England Patriots (37% EWI)

Drake Maye brought life to the Patriots’ offense, throwing for more touchdowns in his first start (three) than Jacoby Brissett managed across five weeks combined (two). We’ll get to Maye himself later, but the leader in EWI this week is the man who was his top target in Week 6, Demario Douglas. Douglas caught six of nine targets for 92 yards and a TD on Sunday, leading Patriots' WRs in all statistical categories. 

Douglas undeniably receives a value boost with Maye under center, and he is worth adding in deep PPR leagues. However, I’m a little skeptical of his value in shallower formats. While he does lead the Patriots in route participation rate for the season, Douglas’ ceiling will always be capped by his slot-first role. He has only run 16 routes all season in two or one-receiver sets. He’s certainly worth adding, but don’t expect to ever get more than a flex play. 

TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (24% EWI)

This is a bit of a weird one. Engram has a 24% EWI despite being rostered in 86% of leagues. For those of you doing the math at home, that means he is projected to be rostered in 110% of leagues after waivers run. 

Although that’s obviously impossible, I actually agree with the implied logic of those numbers: Engram is an absolute must-add in all formats if he is available. In his first healthy week of the season, he became just the third TE all year to catch double-digit passes, as well as only the fourth to record 100 yards. Make sure your league isn't one of the 14% where he is available. 

RB Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers (24% EWI)

Here’s someone whose EWI should be much higher. The sixth-round rookie was a healthy scratch for the first four games of his career, but he immediately made an impact in Week 6. With Gus Edwards on IR, Vidal served as the Chargers’ RB2, including taking his very first NFL touch for a touchdown.

If you haven’t heard his name before, Vidal was actually a popular sleeper pick in Dynasty and Best Ball formats coming into the season. He has a very intriguing prospect profile for fantasy purposes, with pass-catching ability and the size to handle a solid workload. For now, he isn’t fantasy-relevant on a weekly basis. But he could be a legit league-winner if (fantasy gods forbid) J.K. Dobbins were to miss time and he became the RB1 in this run-heavy offense.

RB Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24% EWI)

Honestly, I’m pleasantly surprised to see that Tucker’s EWI isn’t higher. After all, he was just the highest scorer in the entire NFL in Week 6 while being available in literally 99% of fantasy leagues. However, fantasy managers are clearly wise to the idea that Tucker isn’t exactly a relevant piece just yet.

The issue with Tucker is that the Buccaneers’ backfield is already crowded. The sophomore’s breakout game came with Rachaad White sidelined, but the veteran will eventually be back to claim a receiving role, at the very least. Meanwhile, rookie Bucky Irving has been hugely efficient and will likely see the lion’s share of the carries. That leaves very little left over for Tucker. Tucker also has less contingent upside than someone like Vidal, as he will need two injuries in front of him to become the Buccaneers’ RB1. He can be added in deep leagues, but I would leave him on the waiver wire otherwise. 

QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots (23% EWI)

From a real-life perspective, Drake Maye’s first NFL start was mixed. Yes, he threw three touchdowns, but he also turned the ball over three times and took four sacks. However, we here in fantasy land get more points from touchdowns than we lose from turnovers, so Maye’s rookie struggles won’t be as big of an issue.

Just as importantly, we saw one hugely positive signal from Maye’s debut (from a fantasy perspective, anyway). After having been a prolific scrambler in college, Maye scrambled five times against the Texans. Including his brief appearance against the Jets, Maye’s scramble rate for the season is now 13%, multiple points ahead of everyone else not named Jayden Daniels. That’s huge news for his fantasy value, and he is now heading into a matchup with the hapless Jaguars’ defense. If you’re looking for a quarterback in Week 7, you could certainly do worse than the third overall pick.  

RB Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills (23% EWI)

Davis shone on Monday night with James Cook sidelined, carrying the ball 20 times for 97 yards and catching all three of his targets for 55 more. The third-round rookie was clearly the Bills’ lead back, playing 60% of snaps and commanding all but four of the RB touches (four carries for Ty Johnson). At the very least, this makes him an RB2 while Cook remains sidelined, although Cook has a shot to return as early as Week 7.

Once Cook is back, Davis will likely return to handcuff status. However, there are two key things that make him more valuable than he was before yesterday (and therefore worth adding). For one, we now know for sure that he will see an elite workload when Cook is out. Prior to yesterday, his splitting with or even playing behind Johnson was a very possible outcome. For another, Davis simply looked good. There’s a chance he is able to carve out a deep-league-relevant role in this offense, as the Bills clearly want to run the ball and have shown a preference for limiting Cook’s touches in the past. With all that in mind, Davis is a very valid add coming off his breakout game.   

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs (23% EWI)

Smith-Schuster’s EWI should be much higher. Actually, it should be lower, as he should already be rostered everywhere after his performance in Week 5. Yes, the 27-year-old was cut in the preseason by the Patriots, who have one of the league’s worst receiver rooms. But, in the Chiefs’ one full game without Rashee Rice, Smith-Schuster saw a 20% target share en route to racking up over 100 receiving yards. That kind of usage is enough to make him a must-roster in most leagues, especially those with PPR scoring, as we see how this Chiefs offense shakes out coming out of their bye week.

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