Fantasy Football Impact of Injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin: Opportunities for Trey Palmer, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and More

Tampa Bay had a rough Week 7. Not only did they lose to Baltimore 41-31, but the Bucs also lost Chris Godwin to a dislocated ankle and Mike Evans to a hamstring injury. Godwin is likely done for the season, and Evans will miss “multiple weeks,” though he’s not being placed on IR yet.

That leaves a ton of available targets in Tampa. Evans and Godwin accounted for 19.3% and 26.6%, respectively, of Baker Mayfield’s targets through the first seven weeks. That’s nearly half the team’s pass attempts.

No one or two players will fill this gap. It will take multiple guys at multiple positions to hold the Bucs’ offense over until Evans returns. Even when the superstar is back on the field, Godwin’s usage will have to be replaced: He leads the team with 62 targets, 17 more than anyone else.

Let’s look at the guys who will benefit from more opportunities over the next few weeks. We’ll go through the three skill positions, then finish with the outlook for Mayfield.

Tampa’s next three games are home against the Falcons, at the Chiefs, and home against the 49ers before their bye. That’s a division game followed by last year’s two Super Bowl participants; what a terrible time to lose their top receivers. I’ll factor in those matchups when talking about some of the players below.

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Running Backs

Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Sean Tucker

Irving has been outplaying White as a runner: The rookie is averaging 5.2 yards per attempt and has three touchdowns, while White is at 3.7 with no scores on the ground. They’ve been splitting work, something that will continue, but Irving has made his case to take on more carries.

White has been the better receiver, catching 23 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns (compared to 13, 124, and zero for Irving). White will continue to have a role due to his work in the passing game, something that makes White a better PPR player than Standard.

Tucker blew up in Week 6 when White was out, turning 14 carries into 136 yards and three receptions into 56 more. He scored a touchdown both on the ground and through the air. Tucker got five carries and caught a pass in Week 7, but he’s the clear third back in Tampa Bay and not a fantasy player unless there’s an injury in front of him.

Irving is my favorite from this group, but he’s going to get most of his work by carrying the ball, making him less of a focus for the purpose of this article. White might be relied on more in the screen and short passing game with the top two receivers out, giving him a boost in all formats but especially PPR.

Irving is around RB2 status right now and White a flex player. White could become close to a must-start guy in PPR formats unless you have a stacked running back group. I still don’t love White, but there’s obvious appeal because he will keep touching the ball.

Wide Receivers

Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer, Sterling Shepard

These are the guys. Outside of Evans and Godwin, these three account for every wide receiver target the Buccaneers have had this season except one. McMillan, Palmer, and Shepard each currently have:

• Between nine and 15 targets
• Between five and receptions
• Between 61 and 93 yards
• One touchdown

It’s like flipping the proverbial three-sided coin as to who is going to be the best fantasy option among them. The top receiver might change each game, making it hard to know who to trust.

Each of these three players will be a WR3/WR4/FLEX type to consider against the rest of your roster. Maybe someone will emerge as the top guy, but it’s hard to know who that will be until we see it.

Shepard is a veteran, McMillan a third-round rookie, and Palmer a sixth-round pick from last year who has gotten rave reviews as a guy who can contribute despite his draft spot. I really can’t pick a favorite, though I guess I’ll rank them Palmer, McMillan, then Shepard, by the slimmest of margins.

Tight End

Cade Otton

Otton started the year by not touching the ball, combining for four targets, one catch, and five yards in the first two weeks. But he has received at least four targets in every game since and reached eight targets in three of those five.

Otton is second on the team in receptions and third in targets and yards; he might be the de facto WR1 until Evans returns. With Evans out for much of Week 7, Otton led the team with 10 targets, eight receptions, and 100 yards.

The Falcons and 49ers have been a little better than average against fantasy tight ends. Otton is probably a starting fantasy tight end those weeks (8 and 10), but he’ll be right on the line. Week 9 against the Chiefs is a different story: KC has been the worst fantasy team against tight ends, presenting the best matchup around.

Otton is a guy on the streaming radar for the rest of the season, especially while the Bucs' top receivers are out. He’s worth picking up and maybe starting each of the next three weeks, particularly in Week 9. Otton has a chance to have the highest usage rates in his career.

Baker Mayfield

What a brutal hit to Mayfield’s fantasy value. He currently has career highs in completion percentage (70.5%) and yards per pass attempt (7.9). The Tampa Bay offense hasn’t just been good; it’s been fun.

Mayfield is having his best season, and both Evans and Godwin were on pace for over 800 yards and double-digit touchdowns. Evans will almost surely fail to top 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, and Godwin is a free agent after the season, meaning the reputation of the TB wide receivers being great might be coming to an end.

Mayfield should be able to sustain some of his running production, which is by far the best of his career. Mayfield currently has 158 rushing yards at 6.1 yards per attempt; his highs in any previous season were 165 and 5.0. Mayfield has been a top fantasy QB because of his rushing as much as his throwing.

The upcoming matchups aren’t great: Atlanta, KC, and San Fran are all better than average in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed. The Falcons are in the top 10 in most fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, offering a good matchup by that measure, but they’re not a team I’m targeting often.

The Chiefs and 49ers have good defenses but are also vulnerable at times against the best offenses. Without Evans and Godwin, I can’t call the Buccaneers an elite offense, so I don’t like Mayfield’s outlook. He is likely to be on the line of a fantasy starter, and better matchups/circumstances can probably be found.

Mayfield has been a great fantasy quarterback through seven weeks, but he will be much less valuable the rest of the season, especially until Evans returns. Mayfield will still be a starting fantasy quarterback for some weeks, but he can't be counted on as a weekly starter right now.