Fantasy Football Week 10 Wide Receiver Start/Sit: D.J. Moore, Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jauan Jennings, Xavier Worthy, Calvin Ridley
Ted gives his take on three receivers to start and three receivers to sit for Week 10 in fantasy football.
Welcome to FantasySP’s Week 10 fantasy football wide receiver start/sit breakdown! I continue to alternate weeks of excellent Start picks and terrible Sit picks with the reverse. Last week was a good week for being an optimist, as each of Jakobi Meyers (WR17, 14.5 points), Courtland Sutton (WR7, 19.78 points), and Calvin Ridley (WR31, 9.8 points) had solid outings. Unfortunately for my ability to victory-lap those results, so did Xavier Legette (WR24, 11.9 points) and Tank Dell (WR14, 15.6 points). My third Sit pick, Amari Cooper, received an N/A grade by missing Week 9 with a wrist injury.
Overall, I’ll take those results, as my three Starts did outscore my Sits on average despite having lower consensus rankings … but we can do better. Hopefully, that starts this week. We do have multiple teams on bye for Week 10, so keep in mind that standards will be lower for both sections. Let’s get started!
For more help with your toughest Week 10 Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP’s NFL Start/Sit tool!
Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Start Week 10
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills
I wasn’t sure if this was too safe of a take, but I checked our Week 10 WR Projections and Downs is currently being started in just over 60% of leagues. That number should be far higher. Yes, Joe Flacco and the Colts embarrassed themselves on Sunday night against the Vikings. And yes, Downs set a season-low with a 50% snap share.
But, as I discussed in my breakdown of Downs as a buy-low trade target, we have to look at a bigger sample size than just that one game. That 50% snap share is bad, but Downs’ overall usage (playing just in three-WR sets) was the same as it always is. He still has a 71% route participation rate for the season, and we can expect him to be right around that mark in Week 10.
Meanwhile, even including last week’s mediocre outing against a very tough Vikings defense, Downs’ averages in games played by Flacco are stellar: a 28% target share, a 35% first-read target share, and 13.7 Half-PPR points per game. The Bills may be a tough matchup at first glance, but they actually give up an above-average amount of points to receivers lined up in the slot (where Downs runs 85% of his routes). Unless you have three other truly must-start options, Downs should be in your lineup this week.
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Obviously, this is assuming that Jennings (who has missed the last few weeks with a hip issue) is active. However, if he is available, I expect Jennings to run a full complement of routes as the 49ers’ WR2. There is some risk to this prediction, as we’ve never seen him on the field at the same time as first-round rookie Ricky Pearsall, but Jennings has simply outplayed the rookie so far this season.
In fact, Jennings has played like one of the best receivers in the league so far in 2024. He ranks 12th among qualified WRs in PFF Receiving Grade, 24th in Fantasy Points Data’s Separation Score, and fourth in yards per route run. Give him an every-down role against a Buccaneers defense that ranks fifth in the league in adjusted points given up to opposing WRs, and we should be in for a solid outing.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers
Last week, Ridley was the least productive of my Start picks, but I was still very encouraged by his numbers. Not only did he maintain the absolutely elite route participation rate that I was chasing from Week 8, but he actually improved upon it, running a route on 94% of Mason Rudolph’s dropbacks.
Ridley also put up his second straight week of at least eight targets, with a very solid 24% target share. Overall, in the two weeks since the Titans condensed their WR usage, Ridley has a 32% target share, a 46% air yards share, and a 41% first-read target share. Those are absolutely excellent numbers.
The potential return of Will Levis and a tough matchup with the Chargers do throw some slight cold water on this take. However, as long as he’s out there every play and consistently earning targets, Ridley should see enough volume to give us another solid outing.
Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Sit Week 10
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Since Rashee Rice’s injury, Xavier Worthy has led Chiefs WRs in routes in every week but one (he barely lost out to Justin Watson in Week 8). Over that span, he also leads the group in target share (15%), first-read target share (23%), and air yards share (32%). However, his other numbers aren’t so pretty. An 18% target per route run rate, combined with a miserable 48% catch rate, means he has averaged just 7.9 Half-PPR points over these five games.
There’s also the DeAndre Hopkins problem to contend with, as the veteran WR absolutely dominated last week’s game despite playing a very part-time role. With D-Hop’s role expanding and Travis Kelce still eating underneath, there may not be much left over for the first-round rookie.
That’s especially true in this week’s matchup, as the Broncos are the sixth-worst adjusted matchup for fantasy WRs and the Chiefs are huge favorites. KC’s offense has been doing the absolute minimum amount possible to win each game, and this doesn't look like one where they will have to do much. He could certainly punish me with a big play, but I recommend leaving Worthy on benches this week.
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans
I’m actually fairly bullish on QJ’s rest-of-season outlook in this Chargers offense. He has played much better this season than he did as a rookie, and Greg Roman’s offense has done a complete 180 from extremely run-heavy to moderately pass-happy over the last few weeks. However, I noticed Johnston was a popular contender in our Start/Sit Tool for this week, and I can’t get behind plugging him straight into lineups. After all, although he did have a solid outing last week, 66% of his production came on a single blown-coverage play.
More importantly, as much as they have leaned into the pass over the last few weeks, I still think Roman and Jim Harbaugh will be tempted by the run game in Week 10. The Chargers are seven-point favorites against a Titans team that is the third-toughest adjusted matchup for wide receivers. You should be excited to have QJ on your fantasy rosters, but I wouldn’t jump the gun and start him this week.
D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots
I’ve made a habit of having one particularly bold Sit pick (which usually misses) each week, and this week, that honor goes to D.J. Moore. Despite having just one top-30 finish all season, Moore is still easily a consensus top-30 receiver for this week. I like Moore as a player, but there’s nothing in his numbers to say we should expect that kind of production.
He started the season dominating targets for the Bears but has averaged just a 19.1% share over the last three weeks. Over that same span, he actually ranks behind both Keenan Allen and Rome Oduzne in air yards share at 25.7%. This means he has the lowest ADOT of the trio, but he somehow also ranks worst in catchable target rate at an ugly 61%.
The Bears’ matchup with the Patriots is an average one, but they may lean into the run as six-point favorites. And, if you want a totally unscientific reason to bench him, the vibes are simply bad for DJM. You may have seen the viral clip of him seemingly giving up mid-play last week, and he has consistently looked frustrated on the sidelines. I usually try to avoid this kind of armchair psychoanalysis, but even putting it aside, the results simply haven’t been there for Moore so far this season. I’m personally benching him where I have him, so I figured I would write him up so you all can share in my misery when he goes off for 30+ points.
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