Fantasy Football Week 12 Quarterback Start Decision: Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, Jared Goff, Jameis Winston and More

Week 12 of the NFL regular season is nearly here, which means it’s time for our weekly QB start decision story!

This week, we’ll discuss Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Anthony Richardson, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield.

Looking for start/sit help? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Who Should I Start tool.

Season Stats

Wilson has now played in four games since taking over as the Steelers’ starter. He has completed 60.3% of his passes for 942 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions, while adding 14 rushing yards and another score. Wilson only scored six fantasy points last week, but had 14 or more in his first three outings.

Winston has three starts under his belt, and has 1,047 passing yards, seven touchdowns, three picks and a 61.4 completion percentage for the season. He’s added 39 rushing yards. In his starts, Winston has 51 fantasy points in two games combined and then a game where he scored just 10.

Stafford has 2,557 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and seven picks for the season. He’s completed 66.5% of his passes and added nothing as a runner. Stafford is coming off his best fantasy outing of the season.

Smith has completed 69% of his passes for 2,781 yards, but also has 11 touchdowns and interceptions. He’s added 222 yards and two scores on the ground. Smith has scored 38 fantasy points over the past two games.

Love has 2,081 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions despite missing time with multiple injuries. He’s completed 62.3% of his passes and added 46 rushing yards and a score. Love hit 20 fantasy points last week, marking the third time he’s reached that mark this season.

Goff has completed 73% of his passes for 2,492 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He’s added 39 rushing yards. Goff is coming off his best fantasy showing of the season.

Richardson got his starting job back last week and delivered his best fantasy outing. He has 1,230 passing yards, five touchdowns and seven picks on 48.5% passing. Richardson has 274 yards and three scores on the ground.

Purdy, who is dealing with a shoulder injury, has 2,613 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions for the season. He’s completed 66% of his passes and rushed for 267 yards and four more scores. Purdy has over 17 fantasy points in five straight games.

Murray has completed 69.2% of his passes for 2,058 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. He has 371 yards and four scores on the ground. Murray tied his season-high for fantasy points in his last game.

Tagovailoa has 1,443 passing yards, nine touchdowns and four picks on 73.4% passing. He’s rushed for 43 yards. Tagovailoa is also coming off his season-best fantasy showing.

Herbert is up to 2,186 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and just one pick on 63.5% passing this season. He also has 182 rushing yards and another score. Herbert has 19 or more fantasy points in four straight games.

Nix has completed 65.5% of his passes for 2,275 yards, 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s rushed for 295 yards and four more scores. Nix has 16 or more fantasy points in four straight games and 14 or more in seven straight.

Daniels has accumulated 2,338 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions on 68.7% passing. He’s also got 482 rushing yards and four scores. Daniels has only totaled 22 fantasy points over the past two games.

Mayfield has 2,505 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and nine picks on 70.6% passing. He’s rushed for 192 yards and two more scores. He failed to reach double digits for fantasy points in his last game out, which was just the second time that’s happened this season.

Week 12 Matchups

Wilson and Winston are part of the Thursday night game. It’s a favorable matchup for Wilson, with Cleveland allowing 20 fantasy points per week to opposing QBs. It’s one of the toughest matchups for Winston, with Pittsburgh giving up only 12 points per week.

Smith and Murray are part of another game. Seattle allows 17 points a game, while Arizona gives up 16.

Love and Purdy will duel in another game. Both defenses surrender just 14 points per game.

Goff and Richardson are in yet another game together. Detroit only allows 13 points per week, while Indy gives up 17.

Stafford faces the Eagles, who only allow 13 points a week. Tagovailoa takes on the Patriots, who allow 15 fantasy points per contest.

Herbert has one of the most favorable matchups against Baltimore, which allows 21 points per week. Nix has a favorable test against the Raiders, who give up 19 points.

Daniels takes on the Cowboys, who allow 20 points per week. Mayfield takes on the Giants, who give up 17 fantasy points per matchup.

Projections and Starting Recommendations

Murray is the top-projected quarterback, not just for this group of QBs, but the entire batch of guys playing in week 12. He’s at 22 points.

Purdy is set for 21 points, while Daniels is at 20. Tagovailoa and Herbert are both projected for 19 points.

Smith and Love each sit at 18 points, while Nix and Goff are at 17 each. Mayfield is projected for 16, Richardson and Stafford 15 each and Wilson and Winston 14 each. 

I like Daniels the best of this bunch of quarterbacks. I know he’s struggled a bit of late, but the favorable home matchup against the Cowboys is a perfect time for Daniels to get rolling again. I think he delivers a monster fantasy showing.

I’d take Herbert in his favorable matchup next. Herbert has quietly been one of the better fantasy quarterbacks over the past month or so, and a favorable matchup against the Ravens should allow him to continue rolling.

I like Goff next. He’ll be playing indoors, even though it’s a road game, is coming off a big showing and has a pretty good matchup. I see Goff delivering again for fantasy owners.

I’m taking Wilson next. I do not understand why his projection is so low. He’s got a great matchup ahead and has been an average-or-better fantasy performer in three of his four starts. I have really high hopes for Wilson this coming week.

I’m taking Nix next. He’s played very well in his rookie season, and I think that continues in a good matchup against the Raiders.

Give me Murray finally here. I’m pretty surprised to see his projection so high, and while I could see a monster showing, I’m much more comfortable ranking him here after some of his inconsistent showings this season.

I like Mayfield here. He’s got a solid matchup ahead, and probably is getting Mike Evans back. I see Mayfield delivering another good/great fantasy score.

I’d take Tagovailoa here. I’m also surprised to see his projection so high in a pretty average matchup. He could go off, but I haven’t seen it enough this season to trust above this spot.

Give me Love here, followed by Purdy. I see the Packers’ offense needing to pass more in this one, and that’s why Love gets the edge. The Niners could lean on Christian McCaffrey, and that could hurt Purdy’s fantasy ceiling a bit.

I’d take Smith here. I think he’s overprojected as well this week, but would still be OK starting him this week.

The final three quarterbacks are ones I’d prefer to stay away from, but with several teams on bye, I also get if you have to play one of them.

I trust Stafford the most of the three remaining guys. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Stafford can put up numbers against anyone. I’m just not confident in that happening against the Eagles.

I’d take Richardson here. His dual-threat ability could help him post a good fantasy score, but in the tougher matchup and with only a couple good fantasy outings in his career, it’s hard to take him over the QBs I ranked above him.

That leaves Winston for the final spot. I think he’s being overprojected as well. This is a brutal matchup for him, and while he might put up a bunch of yards and a couple scores, I think a couple turnovers are going to really diminish his fantasy score.

Best of luck in week 12!