Fantasy Football Week 12 D/ST Start/Sit: Commanders, Browns, 49ers, Ravens, Eagles
Ted breaks down which defenses you can trust in your fantasy football lineups for Week 12.
Welcome to the Week 12 fantasy football DST start/sit breakdown! As always, let’s start by looking back at last week’s results, which were mixed. The Rams came through with a solid eight-point performance, but the Jets’ defense continued their spiral with just three points while allowing Anthony Richardson to post the best game of his NFL career. As has become a theme, I was more effective as a hater, as both the Chiefs’ defense and the Chargers’ defense failed to provide positive points (zero and negative two, respectively) for the over 50% of managers starting them — the Bills, however, defied my expectations with a solid eight-point outing.
Hopefully this week I can have more solid results across the board, although we all know that defensive scoring is unpredictable, and all the byes this week don’t help. Let’s get started!
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Fantasy Football Defenses To Start Week 12
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
I simply don’t know how the Commanders are currently projected to be started in less than 50% of leagues this week, especially given the lack of solid options. It is true that they are not the greatest defensive unit: Their traditional stats hover around average, but they are all the way down at 26th in EPA per play allowed.
But that simply doesn’t matter when you get to face Cooper Rush. Out of all the terrible quarterback play we’ve seen this season, the only QB with a lower EPA per play than Rush is Spencer Rattler. The Cowboys under Rush are one big play from KaVontae Turpin away from having scored a grand total of nine offensive points over the last two weeks. The Commanders are an absolute must-start this week, so check if they are still out there in your league if you are unsure about your current option.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Like the Commanders, the Browns were already featured in my Week 12 Streaming defense breakdown (check out that article for two more defenses you can trust this week). Normally, I try to feature only one pick from that article in this one, but I’m giving the Browns a second breakdown because I actually feel much more confident in this play now than I did when I first wrote them up.
A huge key to my increased confidence is the weather, as things are projected to be messy in Pittsburgh tonight. Normally, I tend to fade narratives based on the weather, which usually has less of an impact than we might expect, but this game seems like it may be an exception. The total for this game has even fallen by multiple points, all the way down to 36.5, easily the lowest of the week. Everything is pointing to an ugly AFC North classic tonight on Thursday Night Football, and I’m happy to be on the defensive side for that.
Fantasy Football Defenses To Sit Week 12
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Even as a 49ers fan, I can’t get behind them being started in 57% of fantasy football leagues for Week 12. For one, the 49ers’ defense hasn’t been its usual elite self so far this season. San Francisco ranks 12th in EPA per play, 16th in points per game, and eighth in yards per play allowed. They will also likely be without one of their best defensive players this week, as Nick Bosa has yet to return to practice while dealing with an oblique injury.
That’s not a good sign for the 49ers heading into a tough matchup with a great Packers offense. The Packers rank 11th in EPA per play, ninth in points per game, and fourth in both yards per game and yards per play. That’s even more impressive when you consider that there’s a non-negligible sample of Malik Willis snaps contributing to those numbers. On the road in Lambeau, I don’t recommend starting the 49ers’ defense this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
At this point, I might as well just start every week’s Sit section with the Ravens. Their reputation is leagues ahead of their actual defensive ability at this point, as they rank 21st in the league in EPA per play allowed — just barely ahead of the Giants. They also rank below average in each of points per game, yards per game, and yards per play allowed. This is simply not a good defense. Despite this, they are currently one of the most-rostered defenses and projected to be started in nearly 50% of leagues.
This looks even worse when we consider that the Ravens are going on the road to face the Chargers this week, who have been on fire on the offensive end recently, with at least 26 points in four straight games. Justin Herbert has been playing like quite literally the best quarterback in the NFL, and Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have switched to letting him cook with a positive pass rate over expectation. Herbert should absolutely dominate this woeful Ravens secondary, and I don’t want any part of Baltimore’s defense for fantasy football this week.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
I went back and forth on whether to include this pick, as the Eagles have been lights-out defensively in recent weeks. Since their bye in Week 5, Philadelphia’s defense has allowed just 13.8 points per game. In that span, they also rank first in the entire league in both EPA per play allowed and success rate allowed. There’s an argument that they deserve to be treated as a set-and-forget fantasy defense.
However, the Eagles haven’t exactly faced the toughest matchups over their hot streak. In the last six games, they’ve faced the Browns, Giants, Jaguars, and Cooper Rush Cowboys. Decent outings against the Bengals and Commanders are more impressive, but even Washington’s offense hasn’t looked the same of late with Jayden Daniels banged up, and the Bengals were missing Tee Higgins. I’m not saying that Philadelphia’s recent success is entirely fraudulent, but I also don’t think we should take stats that paint them as the best defense in the league at face value.
With that in mind, I can’t trust the Eagles against the Rams’ offense, who have been on a hot streak of their own in recent weeks. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both active, the Rams’ offense takes multiple huge steps forward. Even if we include the whole season, they haven’t been an ideal matchup for fantasy defenses, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sack rate and below-average in turnover rate. The Eagles aren’t necessarily a must-bench, but I would think twice before trusting them in your Week 12 lineup.
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.