Finding the Top Week 14 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Isaac Guerendo, Will Levis, Juwan Johnson

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

Wow. I don’t think we’ve seen a player anywhere near this high all season, as Isaac Guerendo is breaking the scale with a massive 99% EWI. Of course, he deserves it, as he should slide into the 49ers’ RB1 spot with Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both on IR. After Guerendo, there are also some intriguing under-the-radar options — let’s break them all down. 

Top Predicted Week 14 Fantasy Football Adds

RB Isaac Guerendo, San Francsico 49ers (99% EWI)

I honestly think this 99% EWI number says all there is to say about Guerendo. He is the best pickup of the week, if not the entire season, and everyone knows it. If you have the most FAAB left in your league, be prepared to spend 1$ more than however much the second-place team has to get him on your roster. If you don’t have the most FAAB in your league, bid it all anyway — it can’t hurt. 

QB Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (27% EWI)

It makes sense that Levis is a popular pickup this week. Six teams are on bye, and all six of them feature quarterbacks with some level of fantasy viability. That means fantasy managers are looking for streamers, and Levis stands out for his matchup with the Jaguars. 

The Jaguars are a dream matchup for opposing QBs, giving up a league-leading 22.6 points per game. Levis is mistake-prone, but we know he has big-play ability, and he does add some value with his legs. If you’re looking for a QB for Week 14, he is definitely an option. However, if you’re not in need of a QB this week, don’t bother adding Levis. His schedule is very tempting going forward (including a rematch with these same Jaguars in Week 17), but he’ll still be hard-pressed to rank as a QB1 during the fantasy playoffs with zero teams on bye. Now is the time to stock your bench with handcuffs, not hold fringe QB1s as backup options. 

TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints (26% EWI)

I have always liked Johnson’s potential, as the college WR brings plenty of downfield receiving chops to a position where that can be hard to come by. Now, the Saints’ horrendous injury woes mean that he has an opportunity to claim a larger role in the New Orleans offense. 

As you likely know, the Saints are missing essentially every one of their theoretical starting receivers (their current WR1 is Marquez Valdes-Scatling, who started the season as a Buffalo Bill). On Sunday, they lost another weapon in Taysom Hill, who had been playing more as a traditional receiving TE with all of their injuries. With Hill exiting early, Johnson finished second to only MVS with a very solid 77% route participation rate. He also tied Hill and Alvin Kamara for the team lead with six targets (a 16% share). 

Unfortunately, Johnson does have a brutal matchup for Week 14 with the Giants, who have been the toughest schedule-adjusted opponent for TEs this season. But he gets softer matchups after that, which, combined with his expanded opportunity, could be enough for him to come through clutch in the fantasy playoffs. He’s worth considering if you need TE help.

WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans (25% EWI)

On the one hand, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is obviously due for regression. Two TDs on Sunday brought him to eight scores for the season on just 20 receptions, an obviously unsustainable 40% TD rate. However, he also saw a season-high seven targets in Week 13, along with posting an elite 95% route participation rate.

Moreover, NWI will benefit from the same juicy schedule that Levis is walking into. All four of the Titans' remaining matchups in the fantasy season are against above-average matchups for WRs, including three of four against top-five schedule-adjusted matchups (the Jaguars twice and Bengals once). There’s a chance Westbrook-Ikhine’s run of good luck falls apart, but there’s also a chance he keeps it going just long enough to help fantasy managers bring home championships. He’s worth adding in deeper leagues.

WR Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars (23% EWI)

There’s a lot not to like about Parker Washington. He’s a second-year player who hasn’t shown any real signs of being an above-average NFL talent. He is unlikely to pass up Brian Thomas Jr. or Evan Engram to be among the Jaguars’ top two target-earners. His quarterback for the foreseeable future is Mac Jones.

On the other hand, he just racked up 12 targets on Sunday en route to a top-10 finish for Week 13. That was with BTJ and Engram healthy and with Jones under center for well over half the game. In deeper formats, Washington is worth adding in case there is something to his breakout outing, although I certainly don’t recommend starting him this week.  

QB Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders (22% EWI)

Aidan O’Connell is like an even worse version of Levis. He does have a great matchup this week against the Buccaneers, who rank as the second-softest fantasy matchup for quarterbacks. And, while we’re being optimistic, he ranked as the QB10 in Week 13, meaning he has been a QB1 in 50% of his starts this season. But you would have to be desperate to roll out AOC in Week 14 with your fantasy season potentially on the line. Unless you truly have no other options, I wouldn’t recommend adding O’Connell. 

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans (22% EWI)

Okonkwo, the third Titans player on this list, is the first I’m not particularly interested in. He has only two weekly finishes as a TE1 all season, not to mention only three inside the top-20 TEs. He is averaging just 4.4 Half-PPR points per game, fewer than guys like Austin Hooper and Josh Oliver. In theory, he should also benefit from the Titans’ soft schedule. In practice, his role simply isn’t big enough to be worth adding in one-TE leagues.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.