Finding the Top Week 15 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Sincere McCormick, Juwan Johnson, Isaiah Davis, Patrick Taylor

Perhaps the most powerful fantasy football tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

At the top, we unsurprisingly have the Ravens’ defense, who are available in a fair amount of leagues coming off their bye and have a juicy matchup this week with the Giants. However, this isn’t the article for Week 15 streaming defenses. Instead, we’re focused on skill position players, and the leader there is Raiders RB Sincere McCormick. Let’s break him down, plus the rest of this week’s hot fantasy football waiver pickups. 

Top Predicted Week 15 Fantasy Football Adds

RB Sincere McCormick, Las Vegas Raiders (31% EWI)

In Week 14, Sincere McCormick dominated the Raiders’ backfield, with 15 carries to Ameer Abdullah’s one. He still played just 60% of snaps and posted just a 24% route participation rate (two targets), but he was far and away the preferred rusher. We got more good news for McCormick’s fantasy value today, as the Raiders placed Zamir White on IR, ending his season. 

However, Alexander Mattison still looms as a potential threat to McCormick’s dominance of the Raiders’ rushing game. The former Viking nearly suited up in Week 14, so there is a good chance we'll see him on Sunday against the Falcons. The question then becomes whether the Raiders will stick with McCormick or go back to the veteran. By the numbers, the choice is obvious, as McCormick has been the Raiders’ most efficient back by a massive margin. But we all know that NFL coaches don’t always use their most efficient rushers — sometimes they’re just slow to adjust, but sometimes there are legitimate reasons (pass-blocking is a huge one) for prioritizing a less efficient back. 

However, I’m willing to believe that Vegas’ coaches will see the light and feed McCormick down the stretch. Especially heading into good matchups with the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints, he could be able to provide fringe fantasy value as long as he continues to lead the team in carries. He’s absolutely worth adding in deeper formats. 

TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints (27% EWI)

With Taysom Hill (who had been playing more like a traditional TE in recent weeks) done for the season, Juwan Johnson is stepping up as one of the top options in the Saints’ offense. He has been second on the team in route participation rate at 77% in each of the last two weeks. That solid participation rate has turned into back-to-back weeks of a 16% target share for the former WR, who caught four of five targets for 50 yards and a touchdown on Sunday. 

Johnson’s outlook for the fantasy playoffs does take a hit with Derek Carr sidelined for the foreseeable future. But he could also establish himself as a safety blanket for whichever of Jake Haener/Spencer Rattler the Saints choose to start. He’s an option if you’re desperate for TE help in a deeper league. In shallower formats, where I don’t recommend holding a backup tight end at this time of year, he can be left on waivers (for comparison, I would rather add all of the next four players).

RB Isaiah Davis, New York Jets (25% EWI)

Breece Hall missed Week 14 with a knee injury. In his absence, Davis featured in a nearly perfect 50/50 split with fellow rookie Braelon Allen. Allen played two more snaps and saw one more carry (11 to 10), but Davis outpaced him in targets, six to five, and also scored a touchdown. Those target numbers are particularly encouraging, as the two backs combined for a 28% target share. That kind of receiving usage should be enough for them to both be viable plays — they scored 14.2 (Davis) and 10.1 (Allen) Half-PPR points this week. 

Of course, the big question is when Hall will return. The Jets reportedly do not plan to shut down their star RB for the rest of the season. I’ve seen some skepticism around this report, but it is genuinely quite rare for an NFL team to actively not play their best players, even when they have nothing to play for. With that in mind, I wouldn’t put too much priority into Davis on waivers this week — he’s definitely worth adding, but this is not a “spend all your FAAB” situation, even if you’re desperate for RB help. 

RB Patrick Taylor, San Francisco 49ers (25% EWI)

Taylor is in a similar situation to Davis, although perhaps even more extreme. If Isaac Guerendo misses the 49ers’ Week 15 game (which is on Thursday) with the foot injury that sidelined him for the end of their contest on Sunday, Taylor would immediately be an RB3 option, at least, as the 49ers’ lead back. 

If Guerendo is in, Taylor is essentially useless. There’s a chance that he will even eventually lose his handcuff role as Israel Abanikanda and/or Ke’Shawn Vaughn become more integrated into the 49ers’ system (they were both signed within the last week). Keep a close eye on any news coming out of San Francisco on Guerendo's status (we should get news early with their game in just two days), and adjust your enthusiasm for Taylor accordingly. 

WR Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers (24% EWI)

Adam Thielen stands out on this list of waiver options, as he is already rostered in 67% of leagues. If you are in the 33% of leagues where he is still available, this will likely be your last chance to grab him, and I recommend you do so. As I said in the Week 15 WR Waiver article, Thielen has been a legitimate top-20 receiver since he returned from IR. He is a must-add in all formats. 

RB Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (20% EWI)

Bigsby is similar to Thielen in the sense that he is already widely rostered, with good reason. However, he is still available in over 40% of leagues. Given that he outcarried Travis Etienne 18 to four last week, that’s not going to last. Etienne still ran twice as many routes (50% to 24%), but Bigsby saw two targets of his own. Heading into a stretch of decent matchups (Jets, Raiders, Titans), he is someone you could plug straight into your lineup off the waiver wire. If he’s out there, don’t be afraid to drop all of your remaining FAAB. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.