Week 16 Fantasy Football Stars Who Will Struggle: Jayden Daniels, Kyren Williams, Tyreek Hill and Jonnu Smith

Last week’s attempt to find fantasy stars who would struggle to excel was horrendous. Every pick wasn’t just wrong; these players all excelled among their position:

• Jalen Hurts had 290 passing yards and two touchdowns while adding 45 yards and a TD on the ground against the Steelers; he’s a top fantasy player for a reason.
• Jonathan Taylor turned 22 carries into 107 yards and caught one pass for four yards, giving him a good line against the Broncos. Taylor made a major blunder by dropping the ball just short of the goal line on a potential touchdown run, though, keeping him from a great day (and costing him two fantasy points).
• Tee Higgins had five receptions for 88 yards and a score in Tennessee.
• Jonnu Smith wasn’t efficient with his nine catches (48 yards), but that’s a PPR boon, and he also got into the end zone. We’ll see more of Smith later.

That is nothing short of a beating. But hey, we made it this far, so why not do it again in Week 16. Let’s look at one weekly fantasy starter at each offensive position who will struggle to excel.

I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings to help determine the toughest matchups. I will reference those numbers often.

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

I chose Daniels for this spot when these teams played for the first time in Week 11. He threw for 191 yards with a touchdown and an interception and ran for just 18 yards. It was the first time he failed to hit 200 yards since Week 1 (not counting a game against Carolina when he threw only two passes) and his second-least rushing yards in any game this season.

That wasn’t an accident: Philadelphia might have the best pass defense in football. They have allowed the least yards per pass attempt, and it’s not even close. They are 0.4 yards better than the second-place Texans, the same distance between Houston and 10th-place Miami.

They have also allowed the fourth-least fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, excelling in both the real and fantasy game. Specific to Daniels, the Eagles have allowed a lower-than-average number of rushing yards to quarterbacks (under 20 per game).

This is just a bad week for Daniels overall. It’s hard to bench a top-five fantasy quarterback at this point in the season, but the odds are against him having a big game. Check your options before inserting him into your lineup.

Running Back

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets

Williams is likely to surpass all his rushing and receiving numbers from last year. He’s been far less efficient; Williams is averaging a full yard per rush and reception less than in 2023. Fantasy football doesn’t care about efficiency, though, and Williams is putting up numbers.

Williams was RB6 in standard scoring and RB8 in PPR entering the week. He is going to be a top-10 fantasy pick next season, maybe among the first three running backs. Especially with rookie Blake Corum failing to stand out, Williams seems to be in line for a workhorse load as long as he stays healthy.

This is a tough matchup, though, as the Jets have allowed both the seventh-least yards per rush attempt and fantasy points per game to running backs. It’s another very “Jets” season, as they have played well on defense while being let down often by the offensive side of the ball.

No one is benching Williams, and I get it; I wouldn’t either. Things are set up for a possible slow week, though, and it might come at the worst possible time for Williams’ owners.

Wide Receiver and Tight End

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers

Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers

I’m breaking a self-imposed rule here, as I usually never pick two players from the same team in this article. Options are very sparse at tight end, though, so I’ll go back to the well with Smith, even after he burned me last week.

The 49ers are allowing the fourth-least yards per pass attempt, second-least fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. All pass catchers are going to feel the clamps of San Francisco’s pass D. They are even better than average at limiting receiving yards to running backs.

Hill is on pace to fall short of 100 catches for the first time since 2020 and 1,000 yards for the first time since 2019, when he played just 12 games. He could still reach both of those marks with a strong finish, but Hill hasn’t been the devastating force he was the past two seasons in Miami.

Smith’s career year in 2024 continues, as he’s in the process of setting most of his career highs. After making multiple stops and topping out as a middling player, Smith has had a breakout season on a team that wasn’t implementing tight ends much in the passing game before he arrived.

Smith and Hill are in the top two on the team in targets, catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. (De'Von Achane is also tied in the top two in receptions and TDs.) They have stood out as two integral players in the success of the offense, along with Achane and Jaylen Waddle alongside quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Both Miami pass catchers are likely to be in many fantasy lineups, but they are facing one of the toughest matchups possible and are at risk of a low floor. The Dolphins only scored 12 points against the tough Houston defense last week, and this could be another offensive struggle.