Fantasy Football Week 17 Quarterback Start Decision: Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray and More

Week 17 of the NFL regular season is a wild one, with games starting on Wednesday and ending Monday. It’s also the fantasy title matchups for most leagues, so start/sit decisions are even more critical to get right.

Let’s look at several quarterbacks in this article. We’ll cover C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Bo Nix, Jordan Love, Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy.

Looking for start/sit help? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Who Should I Start tool.

Important Numbers

Stroud had a pretty good fantasy showing in week 16 against Kansas City despite a couple interceptions. He’s been over 230 passing yards in five of the past six games, and he has multiple touchdown passes in three of those contests.

Mahomes had 299 total yards and two touchdowns last week despite dealing with an injured ankle. He’s been a double-digit fantasy scorer in every week this season.

Wilson had a decent fantasy day against the Ravens in week 16 despite two turnovers. He hasn’t been over 225 yards in any of the past three games.

Tagovailoa got back on track last week - really, his week 16 showing wasn’t much better than his week 15 one, it just didn’t include four turnovers. 

Williams had 334 passing yards and 34 rushing yards last week. His team’s slow starts are helping him be a good fantasy option because he’s usually passing to try and get his team back in the game.

Herbert had over 300 total yards last week, along with two touchdowns and one interception. He’s been at 14 fantasy points or more in three straight weeks.

Stafford struggled again in week 16, with just 110 passing yards, a touchdown and a pick. He hasn’t topped 10 fantasy points in the past two games.

Murray went for 20 fantasy points last week despite two turnovers. With the Cardinals’ playoff hopes ended, I’ll be interested to see how the offense looks the next couple weeks.

Goff had another big fantasy showing in week 16. He’s topped 20 fantasy points in each of the past three games.

Nix had over 20 fantasy points last week, which was nice to see after two showings below 15 points. Nix avoided an interception last week after five the previous two weeks.

Love didn’t have to do much in the Packers’ rout of the Saints on Monday night. He’d been between 14-21 fantasy points in each of the previous five contests.

Darnold was great again in week 16, which was a nice bounceback after barely hitting double digits in week 15. He’s been over or around 20 fantasy points in six of the past seven contests.

Purdy was good in week 16 despite his team losing. He’s alternated good and bad fantasy showings over the past four weeks.

Week 17 Matchups

Mahomes and Wilson square off in one Christmas day game, while Stroud faces the Ravens in the other contest. Mahomes has the toughest matchup, Wilson has a below-average one and Stroud has one of the best matchups in the league.

Williams faces the Seahawks on Thursday night. It’s a pretty average matchup on paper.

Herbert takes on the Patriots in one of three Saturday games. Nix takes on the Bengals in another, while Stafford and Murray meet in the Saturday nightcap. Nix has a pretty favorable matchup, while Murray’s is slightly above average. Stafford has an average matchup, while Herbert’s is slightly below average.

Tagovailoa takes on Cleveland on Sunday, which is another pretty favorable matchup.

Love and Darnold are part of the same game Sunday afternoon. Both quarterbacks have below-average matchups.

Goff and Purdy play in the Monday night game. Goff has a tough matchup, while Purdy’s is pretty average.

Projections and Starting Recommendations

In the weekly projections, it’s Murray up top among these quarterbacks at 20 fantasy points. Mahomes, Love and Purdy are all at 18 points.

Darnold is projected for 17 points, while Goff, Williams and Nix are at 16. Herbert, Tagovailoa and Stafford are at 15 points each. Stroud and Wilson sit at 14 points each. 

This is a really close decision in my eyes. I tend to lean on the guys who have delivered most often this season, but also take matchups into consideration.

I have Tagovailoa as my top option this week. He’d been one of the top fantasy options up until the past two games. I know this week’s game is outdoors and maybe in a colder environment, but the matchup is too good to pass on for me.

I have Goff second. He’s got one of the toughest matchups for a fantasy quarterback, but with San Fran out of the playoffs, their defense isn’t likely to be quite as imposing. I think Goff delivers another big fantasy showing this week.

I’d go with Murray here. The matchup is solid, and he can post a good fantasy total with his arm or legs. He went off in the team’s first matchup, and I’m expecting another good showing this week.

Give me Love next. He’s got a tougher matchup, but did well in the team’s first meeting. He’s helped out by the game being indoors.

Give me Mahomes next. Again, the matchup is tougher, but in a critical fantasy week, I trust Mahomes more than a lot of these other guys. He’s been better of late, and I think he puts on a show on Christmas.

Give me Darnold next. His matchup is very tough, but he too was good in the team’s first meeting. I think Darnold gets the job done again this week for the fantasy owners who start him.

I’d take Stroud here. The matchup is in his favor, but it’s hard to trust Stroud for two main reasons. First, he hasn’t been a very good fantasy option all season, and second, he’s running out of proven receivers to throw to. The only reason he remains a standard league option for me is because of the favorable matchup.

Nix is next for me. He too has a good matchup and should be in a good amount of standard league starting lineups. Him being able to score fantasy points as a passer or runner helps him edge out some of the remaining guys.

Purdy goes here for me. I think he delivers another solid fantasy outing for a second straight week. The Lions’ defense is decimated by injuries, and even with the Niners eliminated from the postseason, they’d love to hand the NFC’s top team a loss.

Herbert has been solid of late, and has another matchup in which he should be able to keep posting solid fantasy totals. The only thing I worry about with him is the Chargers winning in a rout and Herbert not having to pass much.

I’d take Williams next. The Bears are a mess, but their offense has been a pretty fruitful one for fantasy players, most notably Williams and his top-three wideouts. In an average matchup, I think Williams could deliver a pretty good fantasy score this week.

I’d take Stafford or Wilson for the final fantasy spot. Stafford’s last couple games have me worried for sure. He’s capable of far outperforming my expectations, but I just don’t trust it right now.

Wilson is in a similar boat, but falls below Stafford with less offensive playmakers around him. If he gets Pickens back, Wilson is a better fantasy option this week, but I’d still be skeptical of starting him in a standard league.