AFC Playoff Picture with Two Weeks Remaining

We are down to two weeks remaining: 32 games. It’s the last chance for teams to make their push toward the playoffs, secure seeding, and maybe even grab the top seed in their conference. (Others are working their way toward the bottom in time for draft season, but that’s a discussion for another day.)

A lot has been settled, but there are more questions to answer before we enter the new year. With so many moving parts, it’s good to take stock of what has happened, what the next two weeks look like, and how each team can make their regular season successful.

Let’s go through each AFC division and the wild card picture to identify who is in and who has work to do over the next two weeks. A lot will change after the Week 17 games when we know exact scenarios; this is a current snapshot before any of the Christmas week games get underway.

AFC East

The Buffalo Bills have already clinched this division and are fighting for playoff position. They can win the top seed if they win both remaining games (vs. Jets and @ Patriots) and the Chiefs lose both of theirs. Most likely, Buffalo will end up as the No. 2 seed.

Miami is fighting for a wild card spot: they need to win their next two games and get a lot of help, including either Denver or the Chargers losing both remaining games.

Both the Jets and Patriots have been out of the race for weeks and are fighting more for draft position than anything else.

AFC North

This will be the most fun finish in the AFC. Baltimore tied up the division by beating the Steelers on Saturday, splitting the season series 1-1 between the division rivals. Pittsburgh still holds the tiebreaker, requiring the Ravens to gain another game to secure a home playoff game.

The remaining schedules favor Baltimore:

• Ravens: Week 17 @ Texans, Week 18 vs. Browns
• Steelers: Week 17 vs. Chiefs, Week 18 vs. Bengals

On top of having the easier division game in Week 18, the Ravens play the team likely to end up as the No. 4 seed in Week 17 rather than the top seeded Chiefs (though Pittsburgh is at home on Christmas while Baltimore goes on the road).

This is something of a 50/50 proposition as to who will win the division. The team that comes in second will likely be the fifth seed and travel to play the Texans in the first round of the playoffs (though the Chargers and Broncos are still in that hunt).

The Bengals are in the same situation as Miami, in that they need to win both remaining games and get help. Cleveland has been out of the race for a few months.

AFC South

The Houston Texans have clinched the division, and as mentioned above, they are likely to enter the playoffs as the lowest division winner and play the top wild card in the Wild Card Round.

The Colts are the third team fighting to climb into the playoff picture. They also need to win out and get help; we’ll talk more about that group below.

Jacksonville and Tennessee are among the nine teams with between two and four wins who will control the top of the draft.

AFC West

The Kansas City Chiefs have clinched the division and are on the brink of wrapping up the first seed in the AFC. The Las Vegas Raiders are in the battle for the top overall pick, currently with only three wins (the third of which came last week).

The Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos are the interesting teams as we enter the final two weeks. They are both 9-6 after LA beat Denver on Thursday night, currently slotted in as the sixth and seventh seeds, respectively.

AFC Wild Card Race

The only teams who can possibly catch the two AFC West foes for the final wild card spots are the Dolphins, Bengals, and Colts mentioned above. The Chargers and Broncos only need to win one game each to secure their playoff spots.

The three teams in the chase are all 7-8. Again, they need to win both of their remaining games and have the Chargers and/or Broncos lose out to have a chance.

• Chargers remaining schedule: Week 17 @ Patriots, Week 18 @ Raiders
• Broncos remaining schedule: Week 17 @ Bengals, Week 18 vs. Chiefs
• Colts remaining schedule: Week 17 @ Giants, Week 18 vs. Jaguars
• Dolphins remaining schedule: Week 17 @ Browns, Week 18 @ Jets
• Bengals remaining schedule: Week 17 vs. Broncos, Week 18 @ Steelers

Los Angeles should win one of those games against weaker teams without much trouble. Cincinnati has a chance to seriously help themselves and hurt the Broncos if they can beat Denver at home this Saturday. They would still need to beat a tough Steelers team in the final week, but the Bengals can do a lot to help their case.

Indianapolis and Miami will be favored in each of their remaining games against four teams with no more than four wins. It’s simple for those squads: go take care of business and hope for the best.

Tiebreakers will depend on which teams are left alive at the end. We’ll hit on those more next week. For now, each of the five teams fighting for wild card spots need to worry about winning in Week 17 and giving themselves a chance to reach the postseason.