Week 18 Saturday QB Start Decisions: Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and Bailey Zappe
A look at the four quarterbacks starting in the Saturday NFL games and ranking their fantasy outlooks.
The Saturday quarterbacks have been all over our FantasySP “Who Should I Start?” tool. That means fantasy owners are looking at them often and comparing them to each other and other QBs when deciding who to start in Week 18.
With interest so high in those early players, it makes sense to take a deeper look at each starter and what we can expect based on what they’ve done and the matchup this week.
We’ll look at each guy versus his fellow Saturday compatriots and how they rate versus the rest of the league in action on Sunday. There’s one notable exception who shouldn’t be anywhere near your lineup, but the other three are all good options.
I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings. I will reference those numbers often.
Bailey Zappe, Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
This is our one exception. Don’t start Zappe. The Ravens have been vulnerable at times, and the right quarterbacks can take advantage. Zappe hasn’t appeared in a game this season and has been below average in his career.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson might also see action, lessening Zappe’s chance of racking up stats. DTR has been untenable under center while starting the past few weeks and is another guy to not consider in fantasy.
You can find better options. Michael Penix has a good matchup; Joe Flacco might be playing the worst pass defense in the league (Jacksonville). I can’t recommend Zappe or any other Cleveland quarterback this week.
The Case for Lamar Jackson
It’s not hard to make a case for Jackson most weeks. He’s a two-time MVP winner who is in the running again this year, and he’s one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy football because of his dynamic rushing ability. Under most circumstances, I’d tell you to start Jackson over anyone else.
The flow of the game might come into play here and limit Jackson’s stats and time on the field, though. The Ravens are favored by 20 points; the over/under is 41.5. That means Vegas sees this as something of a 31-10 victory for Baltimore; I can’t argue much with that assessment.
If that’s the case, and the Ravens get out to an early lead, they will be tempted to rest Jackson, Derrick Henry, and other starters when they are firmly in control. The only thing better than getting a week off in Week 18 is getting the bye in the first round of the playoffs. Baltimore can’t get that bye, but they can steal a quarter or a half for their superstars to help prepare for the most important time of the season.
Knowing they are heavy favorite, the Ravens’ play caller might have instructions to protect Jackson, keeping him out of designed runs. That would be a big negative to his fantasy value. The team will also likely be running the ball with the backs more if they build a lead, limiting Jackson’s attempts at throwing the ball.
Those are good things for Baltimore, but they are bad for Jackson’s fantasy outlook. He’s almost an impossible player to bench, but it might be worth it if you have another strong option.
Fantasy Advice
Jackson is the best QB in fantasy, but the uncertainty around how much he will play makes both Joe Burrow and Russell Wilson players to consider over the Baltimore MVP. We’ll look at them head-to-head a little further down.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals @ Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
The second AFC North matchup is easily the game of the day. If the Ravens get upset, Pittsburgh could steal the division with a win in this game. More likely, Baltimore will wrap up the division crown in the early game, and the Steelers will be thinking about their wild card seeding.
Pittsburgh is currently the No. 5 seed and can only fall out of that spot if they lose and the Chargers win on Sunday. (Ties could play a role also, but let’s just focus on wins and losses for now.) That fifth spot is probably going to be much sweeter than falling to No. 6.
If the Ravens win, they will be the third seed in the playoffs, meaning whoever ends up in that sixth spot must travel to Baltimore next week. That sounds like an awful way to try to win a football game.
The team that finishes fifth will instead travel to Houston, the lowest-seeded division champ. While going on the road isn’t ideal, every team would much rather face the Texans than the Ravens.
The Bengals have to win then hope for help from two teams on Sunday, an unenviable situation but also one that gives them a chance. Both teams need this game, and the starters will surely be in the whole time, or at least until it turns into a blowout (which probably won’t happen).
Wilson was listed in this week’s QB start/sit as a guy to get into your lineup, and Cincinnati’s defense is a big reason why: The Bengals are right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. A major issue last season, the porous pass defense again might cost the Bengals a chance to compete.
Burrow’s case is pretty easy: He would be the MVP if the Bengals were a few games better in the standings. He has the most passing yards, the most passing touchdowns, and his completion percentage (almost 70%) is behind just Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, and Geno Smith among qualified passers.
Pittsburgh is also right at average in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed, but they have given up the fifth-least fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Steelers are again carried by a good defense, though at least the offense can keep up this year with Wilson (and Justin Fields) under center.
Fantasy Advice
Between these two players, Burrow is the guy to start because of his dominance this year. Wilson has a better matchup, but his ceiling is so much lower than what Burrow seems capable of. Wilson is a great streamer this week, but Burrow is a must-start player.
Jackson vs. Burrow vs. Wilson
So, Burrow is starting over Wilson, but where does Jackson fit in? Jackson would be the top guy in a regular week because his running makes him so much more dangerous in fantasy than Burrow; QB rushing is something of a cheat code.
With the Browns likely not putting up much of a fight, Jackson could put up big numbers even if he only plays the first half. Jackson can only fall so far, and he slots in just after Burrow and ahead of Wilson.
Fantasy Advice
Start Burrow, then Jackson, then Wilson, in that order. I’m tempted to move Wilson up because of the expectation of Jackson not playing a full game, but that’s complete conjecture based on what we THINK will happen.
All three of these guys are top-10 fantasy quarterback plays this week. Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, and probably Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray are the only other guys I can definitively say that about. Don’t avoid the Saturday guys because you think you can find someone on Sunday; the elite options are likely already off the board.
Full Saturday QB Rankings
- Joe Burrow, CIN
- Lamar Jackson, BAL
- Russell Wilson, PIT
- Bailey Zappe, CLE
