Wild Card Round Fantasy Football TE Start/Sit: Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Zach Ertz, Cade Otton, Dalton Kincaid and More
A look at the tight ends in action this week who could make an impact in fantasy football.
Tight end is often the hardest offensive position at which to find consistent fantasy production. It usually comes down to who gets lucky enough to find the end zone, a guessing game that comes up with more losers than winners.
The best path is usually to follow the matchups and hope things break in your favor; fantasy football is all luck, after all. We don’t have many high-level players this week, so a lot of owners will be looking at the same small group.
Let’s look at the fantasy-relevant tight ends in action in the Wild Card Round of NFL playoffs and see who has the best and worst outlooks from a fantasy perspective. I used stats from NFL.com and our FantasySP defensive fantasy rankings to help determine the best and worst matchups and will reference those numbers often.
Must-Start Player
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Andrews won’t ever reach the 107 catches and 1,365 yards he put up in 2021, but he set a new career high this year with 11 touchdowns, and his 12.2 yards per catch are his most since that 2021 season. I was way down on Andrews, thinking teammate Isaiah Likely would outplay him, but Andrews ended up as a top-six TE in both standard and PPR.
I wasn’t expecting the Steelers to offer as good of a matchup for tight ends as they do: Pittsburgh was right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. A big part of that came from ranking in the top 10 in most touchdowns allowed to the position.
Andrews is the top tight end of the weekend. On top of his name recognition and 2024 production, the matchup is also in his favor to have a good game and maybe get into the end zone.
Good Matchups
Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ertz has a nice matchup to start the playoffs: While Tampa was in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, they gave up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They were among the worst teams against the position all year before improving slightly by the end of the season.
Ertz made his return to relevance after it seemed like he had fallen off a cliff. After two injury-struck seasons, Ertz had his most receptions and receiving yards since 2021. His seven touchdowns were just one short of his career high. Ertz was a savvy offseason pickup that helped form a great ecosystem around rookie Jayden Daniels.
This is a good week to look at Ertz as a low-cost DFS player. The matchup is in his favor, and this one has a chance at being a high-scoring game with two offenses who can light up the scoreboard.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Freiermuth has a decent matchup of his own on the other side of the Pittsburgh/Baltimore tilt. The Ravens allowed the 12th-most yards per pass attempt and 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. That’s not a fantastic matchup, but it could also be much worse (as we’ll see below).
Freiermuth set his career high in receptions (65), had his second-most yards (653), and tied for his most touchdowns (seven). He finished as TE9 in both standard and PPR scoring, not showing great consistency but enough to be worth considering depending on the matchup.
When these teams played during the regular season, Freiermuth actually had two of his worst games, first catching two passes for 14 yards then three for 16. He averaged around four catches and 40 yards over the full season, so chances are he’ll have a little better game in this one.
Freiermuth tops out as a middling player. He shouldn’t be counted on for big production, but he can put up some numbers in the right matchup.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams
The Rams allowed the sixth-most yards per pass attempt and fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. There might not be a better matchup for pass throwers or catchers in the playoffs than against Los Angeles.
Hockenson didn’t make his debut until Week 9 because of a major knee injury suffered at the end of last season. He still finished as TE33 in standard scoring, ahead of guys like Jake Ferguson, Dawson Knox, Evan Engram, and Colby Parkinson, a few of whom missed time of their own.
Hockenson has shown his ceiling in this offense, though he didn’t reach it often in 2024. That’s to be expected upon his return; Hockenson will probably look more like himself next year. For the time being, he’s a fine player whose fantasy value depends on the matchup.
With one of the best matchups a guy could hope for in the playoffs, Hockenson is worth considering for your lineup. If you’re in a contest that only lets you use a player once in the playoffs, it’s a no-brainer to go with Hockenson this week.
Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
We talked about the Steelers being vulnerable against tight ends, and that means Likely is on the radar as well as his star teammate. He’s the second option at his position behind Andrews, but Likely was still able to rack up 42 catches, 477 yards, and six touchdowns.
Likely is a good low-cost DFS target. In the two games against Pittsburgh this season, Likely combined for seven catches, 104 yards, and a touchdown. Andrews had six, 59, and a TD of his own, for what it’s worth.
Tough Matchups
Denver Broncos Tight Ends @ Buffalo Bills
This is an easy one: No Denver TE caught even 1.5 passes per game, hit 20 receptions, or reached 200 yards. The Bills are a good defense. Don’t consider any tight end on the Broncos.
Will Dissly, Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Dissly ranked fourth on the Chargers in targets and receiving yards and third in receptions. He wasn’t a high-volume player; the Chargers threw the fifth-least passes. At a tough fantasy position, though, Dissly was on the radar with the right matchups.
Houston isn’t a team to test. They allowed the sixth-least yards per pass attempt and the 13th-least fantasy points to tight ends. Nobody is a great play against the Texans, and especially not a middling-at-best fantasy player.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
I was all prepped for the Kincaid breakout this season; I touted him as a potential top-three player at his position. Instead, Kincaid finished with 29 less receptions and 225 less yards than he had as a rookie. He did play three less games, but Kincaid’s rate stats were down from last year also (he did score the same two touchdowns).
The defense led the Broncos to the playoffs, along with nice play by rookie QB Bo Nix. Denver was in the middle in fantasy points allowed to TEs, but they gave up the seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt.
I don’t feel good about targeting Denver with anyone, and Kincaid’s modest season doesn’t give a lot of hope for a big game in this one. There’s a better player out there.
Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
This might be the toughest matchup of the week: Philadelphia allowed the least yards per pass attempt by a wide margin this season and gave up the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. No one at any position is a strong fantasy option against this Eagles defense.
Kraft came on strong in his second season. He increased his receptions by 67% (50 catches) and had about twice as many yards (707). The biggest boon to his fantasy score were the seven touchdowns that Kraft scored, up from just two last season.
Kraft is a decent fantasy player, but this is a brutal matchup. I can’t recommend anyone against the Eagles defense.
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
Higbee missed essentially the whole season recovering from injury, only playing the final three games of the season. He had the most usage in the passing game out of the team’s tight ends in those games, but he only put up numbers in Week 18, turning five receptions into 46 yards and a touchdown.
The Vikings were just a little better than average in terms of both yards per pass attempt and fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Minnesota is an OK team to go against, but Higbee isn’t the right guy to count on. You can find a better option.
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders
Otton missed the final three weeks of the season but is on track to play in the Wild Card Round. If he doesn’t, second-year player Payne Durham has been starting in the meantime. He hasn’t put up big stats, but Durham caught five passes in Week 16 and scored a touchdown in both Weeks 17 and 18.
Washington allowed the 12th-least yards per pass attempt and 10th-least fantasy points per game to tight ends. This team might have been the worst pass defense in the league last year, but they have completely turned things around under new coach Dan Quinn.
Otton’s status means that even if he plays, he has a chance of getting re-injured. Durham has no real track record of success. With a tough matchup, these guys are hard to trust on your fantasy team.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
If the Eagles aren’t the toughest matchup this week, it’s the Chargers. LA gave up the second-least yards per pass attempt and eighth-least fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Chargers also allowed the least points this season, seven less than the Chiefs.
Despite playing two more games than last season (all 17 this year), Schultz had less receptions, yards, and touchdowns than in 2023. His 10 yards per reception was his lowest number since 2020, his first as a starter. Schultz has found his place as a middling tight end.
With a tough matchup here, Schultz is a can’t-start player.
In the Middle
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers
Goedert’s season was interrupted twice by injuries, as he missed seven full games and most of an eighth. That killed his season-long fantasy score, and Goedert didn’t put up many big performances, hitting 40 yards just four times and scoring twice.
The Packers were right in the middle as a TE matchup, giving up the 11th-least yards per pass attempt but the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position. These teams played in Week 1, and Goedert had four catches for 31 yards. A similar performance wouldn’t be a surprise.
Full Wild Card Round TE Rankings
- Mark Andrews, BAL
- T.J. Hockenson, MIN
- Zach Ertz, WSH
- Isaiah Likely, BAL
- Pat Freiermuth, PIT
- Dallas Goedert, PHI
- Tucker Kraft, GB
- Cade Otton, TB
- Dalton Kincaid, BUF
- Tyler Higbee, LAR
- Will Dissly, LAC
- Dalton Schultz, HOU
- Denver Broncos Tight Ends, DEN
