Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Football Defense Rankings

Can you believe the NFL playoffs start tomorrow? I know I can’t. It still feels like the season just started. Alas, time flies, and here we are. For my playoff breakdowns of which defenses to start and sit in fantasy football, I will be doing something a little different. Because there are only 12 teams available this round (and fewer in every round from here on in), I will simply break all 12 down into tier-based rankings. If you have to decide between two different defenses, pick the one that’s ranked higher (duh). Let’s get started!

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Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Football Defense Rankings

Tier 1: Genuinely Solid Options

1. Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

I always stress that defensive fantasy performance is all about the strength of the opposing offense, and the Texans’ offense is the worst in the playoffs. Since Week 10, they rank 25th in the NFL in EPA per play, right in between the Raiders and the Titans. If we're looking to rack up defensive points, C.J. Stroud leads all playoff QBs with 3.06 sacks per game. With that in mind, the Chargers’ defense, which gave up the fewest points per game in the league this season, is easily my favorite option for this weekend. 

2. Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m on the record as not being entirely sold on the Ravens’ defensive turnaround over the second half of this season. However, Baltimore is lucky enough to face the second-worst offense in the playoffs, so they get the second-best rank. The Steelers actually rank behind even the Texans in EPA per play since Week 10, all the way down at 28th in the NFL. Russell Wilson is also right next to Stroud with exactly 3.0 sacks per game of his own. The Ravens’ juggernaut offense should give them a lead in this game, allowing their defense to tee off on Russ and hopefully cause some chaos.

Tier 2: High-Risk, High-Reward

3. Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams

I debated having the Vikings in the tier above. There are definitely some solid marks in their favor. Matthew Stafford is tied for worst among playoff QBs with a 3.6% turnover-worthy-play rate, and Minnesota's defense ranked second-best in EPA per play allowed for the season. However, the Rams’ offense is no pushover, and Stafford is still capable of absolutely picking a defense apart on his day. If Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy unit can get home early, they could put up a monster score. If not, they may find themselves chasing after Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. 

4. Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos

This is another matchup that I think could either go very well or very poorly. Denver ranks 10th in the league in points per game, and their offense improved as the season went on … but they’re still starting a mediocre rookie QB (sorry Bo Nix stans) who has one of the worst skill position groups in the league. Especially if Buffalo can get out to an early lead, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean Payton’s house of cards comes tumbling down. On the other hand, Nix has a pristine 4.1% sack rate and a very low 1.9% turnover-worthy play rate, and we’ve seen Buffalo’s defense give up some huge outings in recent weeks. In a normal week, I’d probably recommend sitting the Bills, but in the playoffs with no terrible offenses to target, they are a top-four option.

Tier 3: Okay If You Squint

5. Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers

If you’re looking for reasons to believe in Houston, consider that they ranked sixth in defensive EPA per play on the season. The Chargers, meanwhile, have exactly one above-average skill position player in rookie Ladd McConkey. However, they also have an excellent quarterback in Justin Herbert. Herbert does take slightly more sacks than average, but he also ranked second among playoff QBs to only Lamar Jackson in PFF Passing Grade. Over the last nine weeks of the season, he led the Chargers’ to the ninth-highest EPA per play in the league. At the very least, the Chargers’ offense is more methodical than it is explosive, so hopefully things won’t get too bad for Houston even if they lose this game.

6. Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings

I know that we all just saw Sam Darnold and this Vikings offense implode against the injury-ravaged Lions’ defense. But, looking at the whole season, Minnesota consistently had a very solid offense. They finished the season ranked ninth in points per game, 12th in yards per game, and 14th in EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Rams’ defense was undeniably bad, ranking 23rd in the league in EPA per play allowed and giving up the seventh-most yards per game. On the other hand, Darnold is the player tied with Stafford at a 3.6% turnover-worthy-play rate, and he also takes an above-average number of sacks. Especially with his disaster-class last week in mind, LA just barely squeaks in as a top-half option.

Tier 4: Bad, But Playable

7. Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

You don’t need me to tell you that the Eagles are not normally a team we want to target with fantasy defenses. They rank eighth in yards per game, seventh in points per game, and sixth in EPA per play. However, the Packers’ defense is also very good, finishing the season ranked fourth in EPA per play. And, for all his great traits, Jalen Hurts’ 9.5% sack rate is easily the highest among playoff QBs. If the Packers can force Hurts into some true passing situations, they might be able to survive with a usable score. 

8. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

We are in a similar situation on the other side of this game. The Eagles’ defense was excellent during the regular season, allowing the third-lowest EPA per play for the season and the lowest since Week 10. They also gave up the fewest yards per game and second-fewest points per game. But great offense beats great defense, and the Packers’ offense was similarly great. They ranked eighth in EPA per play, eighth in points per game, and fifth in yards per game. We don’t even have a high sack rate to pin our hopes on, as Jordan Love was down at an elite 3.2%. With that said, the Packers’ offense does operate much better with a lead. There's at least a hope that Philadelphia can get up early and then force some mistakes from Love. 

Tier 5: You Might Be Better With An Empty Roster Spot

These final four units are in such bad spots that I’m not even going to break them down individually. The first two are genuinely solid (if not elite) defenses, but they have the misfortune of facing the offensive superweapons known as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. The next two are both bad defenses facing great offenses in what should be a shootout. There’s very little to like about any of these options, but this is how I would rank them:

9. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

10. Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders

12. Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.