NFL Divisional Round Fantasy Football Preview

With the Rams’ routing of the Vikings last night, the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs is officially over. That means we now know what each of the Divisional Round matchups will be. Let’s take an early look at those for games, of course keeping an eye toward the most interesting fantasy spots and storylines.

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Divisional Round Fantasy Football Preview

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Early Lines: Chiefs -8.5, Total 41.5

To me, this is the least exciting game of the week. It isn’t the most lopsided in terms of spread, but at least the Commanders/Lions match has a much higher total. I also would give the Commanders more of a chance of pulling off an upset than the Texans, even if they’re bigger underdogs — the Lions’ defense is a bigger weakness than any part of this Chiefs team. This matchup projects to be a slow, relatively low-scoring affair with a predictable outcome. There’s also not too much to like for fantasy, given how both teams run their offenses. 

Texans Fantasy Preview

Even if the Texans do make this interesting, it will probably be on the back of their defense, meaning there won’t be much fantasy goodness to go around. On the bright side, their offense has become very condensed thanks to all of the wide receiver injuries they have suffered. Against the Chargers, Nico Collins accounted for nearly half of their receiving yards and the lone receiving touchdown. Diontae Johnson has been cut, but John Metchie, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson will all still mix in behind Collins. Dalton Schultz is nothing special, but he does get more appealing against a Kansas City defense that led the league in yards per game given up to opposing tight ends. On the ground, Joe Mixon will face tough sledding against the Chiefs’ defense, but we know he will see an elite workload. 

Chiefs Fantasy Preview

I have more faith in the Chiefs’ offense than the Texans. Yes, Houston’s defense is great, but I’m going to back Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to get it done until proven otherwise. It wasn’t always pretty, but Kansas City still ranked in the top 10 in both EPA per play and success rate during the season, and they seemed to take a step forward once Marquise Brown returned. The issue is that their production is very spread out. The one exception might be Travis Kelce, who has always been the most bankable option on this team and stepped up huge in last year’s playoffs … but are we sure he still has that extra gear in him? Outside of Kelce, rookie Xavier Worthy is the only pass-catcher who has consistently played a full role in this offense, although I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown gets there now that he is back to full speed. DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Noah Gray, and even Justin Watson are all threats to make plays but play too limited roles to really trust them. In the backfield, Kareem Hunt and Isiach Pacheco finished the season in a near-perfect 50/50 split, with Samaje Perine mixing in on passing downs. Will that last in the playoffs, or will the more explosive Pacheco get extra run? He, Worthy, Brown, and Kelce are all intriguing options, but they all come with question marks.

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions

Early Lines: Lions -9.5, Total 55.5

This is certainly the game of the week from a fantasy perspective. Both of these teams are offensively talented and defensively challenged, which is what we like to see. With that said, the Commanders’ offense wasn’t actually that impressive against a bad Buccaneers defense last week. If they can’t keep up in the early going, this one could get ugly. Thankfully, we know the Lions aren't afraid to run the score up.

Commanders Fantasy Preview

The Commanders’ 22.5-point team total isn’t as enticing as we might have hoped against the very injured Detroit defense. This does make some sense, as Washington has struggled some in recent weeks, especially on the ground — Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson combined for just 43 yards on 18 carries last week. For what it’s worth, Ekeler was more effective; the question is whether the Commanders really want to put much more on the 29-year-old’s plate. On the bright side, a struggling backfield means Jayden Daniels will be called on to do it all himself, so he could have a massive outing. Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz (although the Lions’ defense was tough on TEs all year) are his most interesting targets. Last week, Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus were both barely above a 50% route participation rate, making them tough to trust. In fact, as I write this, I get less excited about the Commanders’ fantasy prospects — Daniels and McLaurin are the only two players who seem truly safe.

Lions Fantasy Preview

If you’ve played any fantasy football at all this year, you know about the Lions’ offense. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta. All of these guys are very solid options. The biggest question mark is how much work Montgomery will see in his return from a knee injury. Especially if they’re up big, the Lions might try to limit his workload. (Plus, are we sure taking touches away from Jahmyr Gibbs in the playoffs is even a good idea?) Aside from that, my main recommendation is just to get as many Lions into your lineups as possible — even Tim Patrick is liable to catch a TD or two.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles

Early Lines: Eagles -6.0, Total 44.5

The Eagles are obviously the more complete team in this matchup, with a loaded offense and a defense that has been shutting teams down over the second half of the season. On the other hand, you can make an argument (perhaps with a bit of squinting) that the Rams have the advantage in terms of quarterback, coach, and best offensive weapon in Puka Nacua. However, their defense was straight-up bad for essentially the whole season. Absolutely destroying Sam Darnold was impressive, but chances are they won’t find the same success against Hurts and an elite O-line. The Rams’ offense will need to come to play to make this one interesting. That’s also true from a fantasy perspective, as the Eagles proved last week that they will stick to a conservative game plan even in the playoffs as long as it wins them games.

Rams Fantasy Preview

There’s nothing we love more for fantasy than condensed, productive offenses, and that is what the Rams are. Even against the Eagles’ defense, they should probably score some points, and you can bet that Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams will be doing much of the heavy lifting. At this point, even Cooper Kupp is closer to a Demarcus Robinson/Colby Parkinson/Tyler Higbee secondary piece than a main cog of their offense. In fact, Robinson actually ran 21 routes (72% participation rate) to Kupp’s 16 (55% participation rate) on Monday night. This either means Kupp is completely unplayable or Robinson is an intriguing sleeper, depending on how you feel about LA’s chances against Philadelphia’s defense. 

Eagles Fantasy Preview

Jalen Hurts threw for just 131 yards in the Wild Card Round. Hopefully, the Rams will push the Eagles a bit more than Green Bay did, but this offense still runs through Saquon Barkley until it can’t. That means even elite talents like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are more risky plays than we might like. Dallas Goedert is one of just a few tight ends playing this weekend with a complete lock on his team’s receiving TE role, but he is especially vulnerable to a low-volume game (although he did lead the team with six targets last week).  

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

Early Lines: Ravens -1.5, Total 51.5

In an otherwise lackluster Divisional Round on paper (the average spread of the other three games is 8.0 points), this game has all the makings of an absolute classic. Two MVP-caliber quarterbacks looking to change playoff narratives, leading arguably the two best overall teams in the league. What’s not to like?

Ravens Fantasy Preview

Lamar Jackson is awesome, and so is Derrick Henry. However, it’s worth noting that the King has had some down weeks (by his standards) when the Ravens fall behind, which is certainly not out of the question in this one. The Bills’ defense is also the worst in the league in terms of receiving yards per game given up to running backs — will Henry get a screen or two in space, or will we see lots of Justice Hill? It doesn’t look like we’re going to see Zay Flowers, leaving Rashod Bateman as the Ravens’ WR1. Behind Bateman, Tylan Wallace was Baltimore’s second receiver in terms of routes last week, but even he was at just a 54% participation rate (Nelson Agholor was third at 35%). Instead, the Ravens leaned into their two elite receiving tight ends, who both ran plenty of routes and combined for a 33% target share. The Bills’ defense is theoretically a bad TE matchup, but that matters left for legit threats like Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. 

Bills Fantasy Preview

The Bills’ route distribution on Sunday was an absolute fantasy nightmare, as eight separate players posted route participation rates between 59.4% and 40.6%: Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Ty Johnson, Dawson Knox, and Amari Cooper. In fact, Shakir was the only player above even 53.1% (Kincaid). Since he also led in targets (six), Shakir is the only Bills pass-catcher we can play with any certainty. Thankfully, we still have James Cook and, of course, Josh Allen to bank on as reliable fantasy options. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.